Interesting Dilemma

Ed_b,I have a similar dilemma. I have a tax-deferred annuity that is almost entirely invested in stocks. I have been having the same kinds of feelings as you about the end of QE2,etc. I think a move out of stocks is the way to go,my problem is I don't really want to go to dollars but I am reluctant to put it all in PMs right now. I have decided to stand pat with PMs for now but I want out of stocks for the most part. I think the end of QE2 will make the dollar rise and the stock market will drop big time. Based on that logic,cash would be the way to go.The real unknown is what does the end of QE2 "really mean",because there will be continued support but nobody is saying what form it will take. Cash appears to be the safe bet.

The AUD seems to have temporarily stabilised at around USD $1.06. The obvious reason for the rise of the AUD is the converse weakness in the USD.

There is a body of comment in financial circles in Australia, that the AUD will not go much higher, and there is increasing pressure for the AUD to fall, brought about by declining commodity prices in the medium term, and perhaps at last a rise in the USD, as QE2 diminishes.

Commodities in this case defined as base metals and coal, which are big export earners for Australia. PM's are a different animal in this case.

Perhaps Ed B's policy could appear to be safe, sitting on the sideline for a short time, more heavily into cash, with a stronger possibility of more U.S. share market upside later on in the year.

My Two Cents worth. My main super fund seems to be in about this position, when I look at the asset allocation.

Yeah, I am kind of leaning towards that. Maybe not with the whole pile of money but with at least some of it. Gold seems fairly stable. I like silver and palladium quite a bit but they may be a little too volatile for this account.



I agree, Hock. We are both in a similar situation here and seem to have about the same view of the market for the next couple of months. Cash would be good and so would some PMs... I think. We'll see.



I definitely agree with this. My folks are at that age where there may not be much "later". The good news is that this account is less than 10% of their net worth and they have listed me as a contingent beneficiary. My step-Dad was telling me yesterday that I needed to watch what I was doing with this money because his gains or losses would become my own one day. I would be VERY careful with this, regardless of what happens to it someday and told him that.



It could well be. I appreciate the tip on this but it looks more speculative than I should be having in this account. It is also likely to be a small part of BMW's earnings, even if it is quite successful.



The currencies from a number of countries have been quite strong for the past several months, if not longer. These include: Australia, Switzerland, Norway, and Canada. These seem to be the commodity exporters, for the most part. The US has a considerable commodity basket of its own, with coal, gas, timber, PMs, fish, and agricultural products of all kinds. I am wondering if one of those Ever Bank CDs that holds a basket of currencies from these countries would be a good bet. I believe that they have 3 and 6 month varieties and it is FDIC insured. Might be worth a portion of this money as an investment.



Peter Schiff is one of those guys who has predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions and 3 of the last 1 depressions. He seems to have a "chicken little" attitude towards investing... the sky is ALWAYS falling, in his opinion. Still, that does not mean that he is wrong all the time... just most of it. He does have some things to say with which I agree, though. Whether or not we see a QE3 is not the done deal that Schiff suggests. We might see it or we might not. The Fed will be more likely to test the economy without QE3 before they commit to doing it. They will wait a bit to see how the economy responds before starting a fresh round of it. I agree that if they do have a QE3, it will be bad for the dollar and good for PMs.

Thanks much to all who responded. I like to gather as much info and hear the opinions of others before making my final decisions. I will carefully consider everything that you all have said here... appreciate it, guys!

If I had to make the decision right now, I would very strongly consider about a 3-way split among cash, a strong foreign currencies CD, and some PMs. A combo like that should do OK, come what may.