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A "Wannabe" Economist's Perspective

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hockingzig's Avatar
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  1:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hockingzig to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks DVC,that cartoon says it all. I may use it as an avatar somewhere.
Bedrock of the Community
biokemist6's Avatar
United States
12437 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  1:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biokemist6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Be wary of a Dutchman selling tulips, booms and crashes are cyclic and repetitive regardless of the particular commodity.
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DVCollector's Avatar
United States
10045 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  1:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DVCollector to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Imagine, a single tulip bulb being traded for a small fortune? Probably the all-time classic bubble.
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junior e's Avatar
United States
931 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  2:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add junior e to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I like hearing differing opinions on precious metals investment and the OP is obviously more qualified to make his opinion known than most of us. I was going to make a large move in gold investment when gold was at $290. At the time that national debt ticker was becoming big news and a lot of people, mostly activists, were extolling the "fact" that precious metals had nowhere to go but way up. I had a conversation with my Brother in law, an attorney and very successful investor. He made it quite clear that switching my investments from stocks and bonds to gold was a fool's move and not to move more than one or two percent based on gold's stagnant history of the past twenty years or so. I took his advice and missed out on one of the greatest investment runs in history. I was wary when I jumped in at $700 and he told me that I was not being fiscally responsible. In 2007 and 2008 he lost over a million dollars in his stock investments. Some of that has been regained, but recently he told me that he wished he would have given my opinions about the future value of precious metals a little more thought. It just goes to show that no one can ever possibly predict the future. All we have are opinions and every time someone here voices their thoughts I am grateful for the sharing of knowledge, but we all know that nothing is for certain.
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Maineman750's Avatar
United States
3592 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  3:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Maineman750 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
photoeric21, thanks for repeating the advice I have given all along (without the bells and whistles) but I think most of our members are speculating within their means and that is a good thing.
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  4:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gotta love old cartoons like that and The Yellow Kid. They were just more intellectual back then.
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stewart's Avatar
United States
1126 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  5:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add stewart to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
photoeric21,

Very well thought out and interesting thread.
By me, not a rant at all. It is healthy to have these discussions
that is how we learn is from the exchange of ideas.

There are some on here in different threads
that have mentioned some very core
reasons for the sudden shift in value of gold and silver.
One is an entire almost 40 years of people being made to believe
that gold and silver are just an industrial commodities
since it was totally separated from our currency
when Nixon was in office.
When for the thousands of years gold and silver
was money.

Now around the planet stories are coming out almost weekly
about this huge institution (University of Texas)
or that Country (China, Mexico and more) are taking physical
delivery of Billions in gold or silver.
Major Corporations (JP Morgan) being caught manipulating
the silver market in artificial price suppression schemes
which helps prop up the value of the current fiat currencies
that are at this time in use around the planet.
Of which the U.S. Dollar is the reserve currency of the planet
And there is now calls from around the globe to replace
the Dollar as the reserve currency from places like
the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund.
People are unsure of what will come with a fiat currency
crash. Leading them to want what has been a store of
value for centuries gold and silver. And when you see the large
institutions and Countries heading that way. My feeling is
Something is in the works.

Nobody has had to live through an event like a fiat currency crash
and most of the country is totally unaware of what we take
for granted here on this forum every day

That is just a couple of core fundamentals I have seen
that lead me to buy the amount of silver that I do.
Plus the fact that ALL money I put into silver is my hobby
money. Which is one of the cheaper hobbies I have had in my
life. It was not too long ago that I used to collect
70's Trans Ams and Firebirds. Talk about burning cash
Could have had a bon fire
And I recommend to my friends to do no more than sock
some physical away from totally discretionary funds.

Terry


Edited by stewart
05/11/2011 5:43 pm
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  7:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It just goes to show that no one can ever possibly predict the future. All we have are opinions and every time someone here voices their thoughts I am grateful for the sharing of knowledge, but we all know that nothing is for certain. - Junior E


I agree 100%, Junior. The future is not only unknown, it is unknowable as well!

Like many people, I try to collect knowledge and info from many sources. I do not make important decisions lightly, quickly, or haphazardly. Much thought goes into my attempts to convert info and knowledge into... wisdom. This is where the real pay-off comes. Your brother-in-law sounds like a man of intelligence and education. That is a tremendous help in making excellent decisions and I commend you for seeking his opinions. That said, he is but a single source in your quest for wisdom.
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United States
1026 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  7:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Brucec to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In the end isn't every financial adviser just making an educated guess? (Just my 2 cents)
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stewart's Avatar
United States
1126 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  7:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add stewart to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In the end isn't every financial adviser just making an educated guess?


And there is the entire thing in a nut shell

Educated guesses based on the available information

Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  9:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I agree 100%, Junior. The future is not only unknown, it is unknowable as well!


This isn't completely true Ed. As a matter of fact I shouldn't probably tell you this but an older version of myself stole another guys DeLorean and travelled back in time to give me a 21st century sports almanac. Because of this very reason I didn't put any money on my Minnesota Twins to win the AL Central this year.

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amida17's Avatar
United States
4897 Posts
 Posted 05/11/2011  9:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amida17 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
^cmon geardaddy. I wouldn't need an almanac to know that would be a bad bet....
Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/12/2011  10:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
cmon geardaddy. I wouldn't need an almanac to know that would be a bad bet.... - amida17


lol! I guess I set myself up pretty good for that one!
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  11:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
DOH! I forgot to consider the DeLorean effect!
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/15/2011  11:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In the end isn't every financial adviser just making an educated guess? (Just my 2 cents)

Aye, that they are, laddie. On the other hand, a lot of decisions get made via uneducated guess work too. Perhaps by that comparison, financial advice looks a little more reasonable.

Here's another fact about investing and managing money. Nobody cares more about your money or your financial success than you do. Because of this, we all need to learn as much as we can about these topics so that we can successfully do our own financial planning. In the long run, it will work out much much better. It really isn't all that difficult. What it mostly is, is time consuming. But spending your time in this way is one of, if not THE, most profitable ways to use your time.

Most people are WAY better at earning money than they are at managing it and making it grow. If you can develop a sincere interest in this subject, you will be able to learn all you need to know to do it very well. It is not rocket science. It can be learned by most people who are interested enough to spend the time on it. Consider it a challenge!
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