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 Replies: 46 / Views: 4,895 |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
As a BBA/economics myself, I'd say your "rant" is pretty much on the money.
I especially agree with the "he said so I say" stuff. I used to get a kick out of the formula for predicting the price au or ag would reach:
look up today's price.
multiply by 2.
as price goes higher, change "today's price".
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote:
Let's apply our lessons learned in real estate to silver - nothing goes up forever. Hedge your silver buying with something else and be weary of taking investment advice from a stranger on a web board. I used to get a great kick out of annual predictions for the numismatic market. They were 100% in "agreement", since they all said Quote:
We look for a substantial increase in (insert specialty of predictor) with a great increase in the number of collectors of (ditto). It's easy to become myopic when you don't step back and look at the big picture every now and then. |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
One investment advisory has been working with a group of researchers who have studied long-term cycles going back to the 1500s. They can predict which markets (PM, housing, stocks, bonds, commodities) will be growth areas, typically pinpointing cycle changes within a month or two before they happen.
Their concept is to move assets from sectors that are on the decline to ones that are likely to grow. They're not using an all-or-nothing approach, but for example having 40% in the area most likely to grow, while having 15% in four other areas, rather than having 20% in each of the five.
One interesting part of their plan is a constant balancing of their portfolio. For example, if silver takes a huge rise and becomes 60% of holdings, a portion is sold off and invested in other areas to return to the 40-15-15-15-15 ratio.
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote:
Imagine, a single tulip bulb being traded for a small fortune? Probably the all-time classic bubble.
No different than paying huge premiums for mint sealed proof sets or factory sealed sets of baseball cards, which might not even have the right cards in them. Ten years after issue is a little late to ask Donruss to fix a set that had 111-220 twice, and no 221-330, especially if 300 ends up being a key card. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
<quote>One is an entire almost 40 years of people being made to believe
that gold and silver are just an industrial commodities
since it was totally separated from our currency
when Nixon was in office. </quote>
...
<quote> Now around the planet stories are coming out almost weekly
about this huge institution (University of Texas)
or that Country (China, Mexico and more) are taking physical
delivery of Billions in gold or silver.
Major Corporations (JP Morgan) being caught manipulating
the silver market in artificial price suppression schemes</quote>
(stewart)
@stewart: You mentioned people stockpiling silver and gold. Well, in my opinion, the idea that these commodities have value only really works when they are circulated as money. Right now that attitude is not there and these places you hear of that are stockpiling them, well having more of something doesn't make it more valuable (correct me if I'm wrong), I think that they are planning to use it industrially/scientifically. And while all that silver is sitting in vaults, more will be mined and manipulated so those stockpiles really don't affect prices except that they can only go down after flooding the market again (again correct me if I'm wrong). Nobody's taking the chance to actually circulate even cheap ol' silver because they're still chasing fiat currency. People are only seeing the value of the dollar, and not the value in the item itself. Silver has a long way to go still. As long as the dollar has purchasing power people will always chase them, otherwise why would you hold onto all that unnecessary paperwork?
(I agree with the OP, but I back myself up with a disclaimer in my sig.)
Edited by Libertad
05/20/2011 09:54 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
Libertad, Good and valid points one and all in normal times. I just think that we are in the middle of extraordinary times with almost the entire rest of the planet calling for the end of the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency of the world. (The I.M.F.,The U.N.,Russia, China and others) Russia and China already setting up an exchange at the end of 2010 on the Micex to trade directly without using the Dollar. Along with the large entities listed above completely changing direction on both gold and silver to taking physical delivery. It is not just one event that has me thinking the way I do. It is a series of events over the last year and a half. Found the picture below on another metals forum Can't remember who shot it.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Great pic! Do you have a link for it?
I think we have to think of PMs as just another currency and with the risks of any other currency trading (except it can't be printed by Fed reserve banks, just mined).
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
GoThunder
Sorry I do not have link for the picture
It was in another thread about precious metals
on another forum.
Plus I don't think linking to another thread in another
forum is kosher with the rules of a forum
So I just saved the picture and uploaded it to
a photo bucket account
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
The link to your photo bucket img would be great.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Thanks  |
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Valued Member
United States
103 Posts |
Im sorry but my personal opinion is that this rant is rubbish. Statistics and sources may be nice when predicting the prices of gold and silver, but your forgetting we live in a free market society. PEOPLE determine the prices. Look at silver now - its at 35 dollars an ounce and people are buying it at 45 a piece on ebay. Silver could drop to 10 dollars an ounce, but still sell high in the market. In capitalism, we determine the price. Like you said, if person A tells person B the price of silver will be x, then that is the price of silver. In capitalism stats and sources and whatever mean little to nothing. Why do you think some baseball cards, which are nothing more than a piece of cardboard with a picture on them, are worth tens of thousands of dollars. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1064 Posts |
Gotta agree with Rbethell- look at $280 for new 5-oz ATB coin! |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
What gets me is rock stars, sports heroes, lottery winners and other instant millionaires who go from millions of dollars to living under a bridge, and blame "bad investment advice".
Divvy up the money into five investments, and when any one of them falls by 20%, close it out and/or replace the advisor. Even if all five went to pot, you've still got 80% of your starting funds.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
Well, in my opinion, the idea that these commodities have value only really works when they are circulated as money. Gold and silver have not been circulated as money for a very long time, yet they continue to have considerable value. These commodities have been of value and used as money for thousands of years. I do not see this changing anytime soon. Even if gold and silver are not used as money anymore, it is still quite easy to convert them into immediately spendable currency. |
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Replies: 46 / Views: 4,895 |
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Posted 05/19/2011 8:25 pm
