Statistical Analysis Of Key And Semi-Key Lincoln Cents

Back in the 70s, a rare geek with computer access came out with a monthly report on rolls of modern bu coins, where he calculated, using factors like mintages and years since issue, what rolls "should" sell for, and thus which ones were underpriced for investment.

It lasted a little over a year, but near the end, one of his commentaries pointed out that one date he felt was underpriced had risen to pretty close to his "should sell for" price.

He felt this proved his theories. Then again, if enough subscribers started looking for his underpriced issues, that alone could move the price up.

There were others that were getting close, but it was the only one at that point that got to its computed price.

This is interesting - the other things the anomalies can show are which varieties and mints are scarce for their grade, and those scarce despite their mintage. It could also give you a theoretical model for how many coins are circulating in different grades.

Pretty fun stuff!

Found a 1968-S looking through a few rolls of cents I picked up at the bank this afternoon

In 2009, there were four different reverses on the Lincoln. The P and D refer to the Philadelphia and Denver mints, respectively.

As you mention, they're called population reports. Any dealer spending time (money) for such a study would likely keep the results forhis own profit. I wouldn't trust data from individuals, which is why we have tpgs, and they can't even hit a grade within $15,000.

Looks like a lot of really long research. Really nice work and lots of that. The main problem I see with such statistics is the really don't mean to much for availability. Anyone can say a 1931S Lincoln Cent had so many minted but no one on Earth knows how many are left. How many are in AU grades. How many are now part of a Copper bar. I once spent almost 2 years looking for a MS-64+ graded 1920D Lincoln Cent and just couldn't find one. Yet dealers kept telling me no problem, those are common. Yeah, right so where are they. Now same with a 33D in that grade. I've found 09S's, 09S VDB's and 14D's easier than many other so called COMMON dated coins.
Statistics on coinage is great for statistical information but without factual totals in existance, only statistics.
There was a post not long ago about all the things people did to coins. That one made me realize that is is amazing that any are left at all. And key dated coin of any denomination would greatly depend on how many exist. We could say a 1964 Jefferson nickel is worth a Nickel but if it was suddenly found that most were melted, then now is it a key?

WOW! Great information! I have been extremely interested lately in finding more stats on Lincoln Cents, with regard to where they have gone! I understand there was a penny melting ban from 1974-1978 or so, and wonder how that affected mintage figures both before and after the ban, and if people were in fact melting, what were they doing with the copper later? These questions (and many others!)actually occupy my driving time as a trucker! LOL :)

EDITED TO ADD: Dr. Dave, I'm too new to message you, is there a thread with the data you were/are working on for undervalued Lincoln Cents? Thanks for any reply! :)