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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,530 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I still think Yup is Dave from storage wars lol.....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
Last week Barrick Resources announced the postponement of their giant Pascua Lama mine. This was to be one of the worlds largest mines and is now tied up in litigation over true ownership as it appears to show that Barrick does not have clear title. The probale reserves were nearly 18 million ounces of Gold and almost 700 million ounces of Silver. Work on this mine was completely ceased last Wednesday. "Last Wednesday" was also an important day for the Kennecott copper mine in Utah, the ground started to shift more rapidly prior to this weekend's landslide. They knew this was coming as they closed the visitor center on April 1st and had all equipment and personel out of harms way. This mine produces some 400,000 ounces of Gold and over 3 million ounces of Silver as a by product of copper, this is the largest copper mine on the planet.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I expected a ripple bounce back as most of us did eventually-but it seems way small and insignificant so I am assuming we still may see 1300 gold an 20 per oz silver....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Yes this is what I call a FALSE RECOVERY-think about it as the gains today are minor compared to the drop last three days I expect more pullback 100% sure of it now....
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Valued Member
United Kingdom
90 Posts |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Interesting article. One day theyll be able to get that more expensive gold with new mining technology just like the mines had the land slide will reopen and the other mines ownership will get resolved.
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Valued Member
Canada
78 Posts |
I think the problem is, we can't look at the past when things are so different now. People can not look at PM drops from the or 1970's or 1980's as a hint of the future. I really think we are in uncharted territory.
Example, yesterday future contract trading was like 80% of one years gold mining production...a record...think how insane that is. Wasn't the size of paper trading market 20 years ago nor computer trading. Dont think past is an indicator if the future anymore.
I have noticed a cycle lately over last few years...copper, oil, any kind of commidity gets slowly pumped up to a high price and then boom a rapid sharp decline...more stimulus is then announced...small asset bubble arise in these commodities...then sharp drop...more stimulus. Repeated cycle.
I think governments around the world like the licken coomidities have taken..because now they CAN announce new stimulus in the future. Would be pretty hard to do new or continue stimulus if oil is over 100 bucks, as then they get the blame for creating assest bubbles. Let's face it...demand is not there for 100 dollar oil or 4 dollar copper.
Governments want high stock market values and home values so people feel more wealthy and hopefully spend.
Fed has alot less pressure to end easing with drop in everything.
My prediction, just one mans opinion is:
-US stock market drops 3%-8% in next three months -New stimulus is announced in Russia, Europe, China, and possibliy in US
And hard assests evenutally will make slow climb back up after this is announced.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
I dont think were in uncharted territory when it comes to PMs. I agree a lot of things about life are very different now and if we were talking having to survive on our own with a collapse were in uncharted territory with how technologically dependent we are but difficulty mining is nothing new.
I completely agree with the everything is a cycle idea which is what I fully expect to happen with PMs as well. Theyll drop at some point stay low for awhile and well do something stupid and cause a huge spike again rise and repeat.
Its not the first time weve seen these types of prices for the PMs and it just looks like how theres no market for 4 dollar copper theres no sustainable market for 40 dollar silver or 1800 dollar gold. Eventually people get bought out or get sick of it sitting at those levels moving sideways and move their money elsewhere.
This board and other stackers not included, but a majority of PM buyers are looking to get a return on their money when its clear that return is maxed out they move on. Large quantities of PMs have been moved in the past, granted its easier now with the click of a mouse but the movement itself isn't an entirely new wild card. Also now theres a lot of people that own a lot of PMs that presumably werent going to be buying forever. Everyone a different type of buyer but even the most favorable of stacker will think twice about getting more when the garage is filled with boxes, obviously most people dont have that much but there are a lot of people that had set goals in mind who are probably close to them.
I also think well see a pull back of the DOW though I think itll be more focused. Instead of being an everything pull back the stronger companies will hang on while the weaker ones lose some ground. Most of the strong ones are still not back to their pre 08 levels so the upside is still there for those investors in a lot of the areas.
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Valued Member
United States
200 Posts |
The way gold and silver are falling, you might be able to get them for free in future! Jokes aside, I still believe that gold and silver should be part of anyone's portfolio. Do not invest in them for getting safe returns, we all have seen they can move either way. But as a valued hedge against inflation in the long run. And also, having PHYSICAL gold and silver will matter a lot in case the economy crashes for whatever reasons. Improbable, but we have seen a lot of improbable things happen recently, haven't we?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
That's pretty much my opinion on PM as well. A store of value for dire times
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Couple of things-
1- in the past year QE has not done a single thing to help the commodities markets. Copper is in the toilet because now we have too much than we need. Further QE from central banks will NOT pump prices and it will be limited going forward. I can go on and on and pick apart the argument that QE has not recently boosted prices
2- Gold miners have for years have not been reporting exactly their costs for mining. That's why they have always lagged the market and underperform gold. Markets have known this.
3- The markets have been correcting for weeks in various ways and everyone keeps making predictions for a drop in the indices. Guess what, the market will drop when it wants to and when everyone least expects it. This is how it always has been.
4- Are you following SLV today? Have you noticed no higher high for today.. same with GLD. we have nothing but a weak bounce here which everyone has expected. Going forward, would be interesting to see this play out like today,, were we establish a range, within the continued down trend. Again, if you are looking for some sort of turn around, its done in stages, so first thing is those two days of heavy selling, we call those gaps, those must be filled. That wont be an easy job without heavy volume and strong buyers. As I always say, it will take time so be patient.
Don't be fooled into thinking that prices are done going down. They aren't. A scenario we could see and does happen is a retest of the previous lows. Should that not hold, expect lower prices.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I buy the cycle theory myself and agree an disagree on viewing history. Sure every new day is its own fingerprint but I think market trends from the past Creep back into today's market still all the time...
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
548 Posts |
Those shysters over at BullionByPost are still raising their premiums. Even though the price of gold and silver has continued to fall they've increased their prices on everything. Gold is £7 per ounce cheaper than it was yesterday, but their price for the 1oz gold bar has increased by £10. Premium on 1oz bar has gone from 5% to almost 7%
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
@ Demarco, those are pretty hefty premiums! Are other dealers doing this as well? I wouldn't support them, whatever the case. Covering losses is understandable, but it sounds like BBP is taking advantage of its customers.
@ yup7676, thanks for your views on QE. It appears that not even QE to infinity has made a difference. There are many predictions that silver will one day reach astronomical numbers, due to economic collapse, political unrest, and the demise of the US dollar. What are your views on this notion? Would panic buying and public awareness of the value of gold/silver be the key that sets off the market? Or do we simply follow the market's behavior and let it do as it will?
Appears the gold/silver market are turning again. Getting ready for more nibbling-buying and learning how to be patient! Not sure what the hype is about silver shortages. There is plenty available, just lack of stock for various products. But figure those will be replenished once the market settles?...
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,530 |