| Author |
 Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,541 |
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
ehhhh why is this turning into an attack on Americans? why the name calling?
@silver- my friend, I do see things improving and I don't feel that I am off. I see everyday at work in the markets. Perhaps it doesn't appear that way but we are, at least America is powering itself slowly and surely, our housing market keeps powering ahead, we will and are having a boom in energy, the railroads are sending and shipping more, there's lots of positives than negatives. Yes this is a painful and slow recovery but its marching ahead.
As far as the debt- I will dig in my heals, and be stubborn about it and say,, it doesn't matter. The USA will be able to continue to print the debt, sell this debt and other countries will buy the debt. When our paper comes into the markets, its bought and snatched up. All other countries in the world would die to have this ability.
|
|
Valued Member
United Kingdom
90 Posts |
@1188howest, what a construtive post there backed up by a wonderfully intelligent counter argument... not..
Actually Yup's posts make a lot of sense and are based on real day to day figures, not the ramblings of a cult like conspiracy blog (which no doubt has direct ties to a coin seller, or selling dvd/books/subscriptions). Nowhere has Yup said that having 16 trillion in debt is a 'rosey' place to be either, in fact he's explained himself and the reasonings behind QE pretty well I think. It's a massive debt, but as long as growth figures are in the positive and not the negative, no matter how small, that does actually mean things are showing signs of improving.
For as long as there is time and the internet, there will be every day,week,month and year, without fail, some blog somewhere with a doomsday story, be it the economy, meteors, Mayan prophecy, you name it. Each and every time nothing happens and people forget, till the next one. Eventually something WILL happen, and then whoever wrote the conspiracy blog that happened to be closest in time to the actual event will go "SEE I KNEW I TOLD YOU SO"... except it'll be nothing more than coincidence, the one out of a million prophecies that came true out of sheer statistical luck.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
"As far as the debt- I will dig in my heals, and be stubborn about it and say,, it doesn't matter. The USA will be able to continue to print the debt, sell this debt and other countries will buy the debt. When our paper comes into the markets, its bought and snatched up. All other countries in the world would die to have this ability." You know what, I am starting to believe this myself, or as I have said in past they will just erase the books and burn them if push comes to shove and start fresh and clean. After all debt or not, America is who the world looks to for global trading of many goods, or when thing stir up they all expect and assume the good ol USA will be there to save them, or at least police them lol. Maybe were not first in the world anymore, as I would think China has that title now, but their sure is not anything wrong with a positive attitude and glass half full verses empty attitude. Sure will not get back to our former greatness without many taking that view and putting in the effort and work to make it happen.... If every human in the USA sold as much as I do on ebay, the POST office and entire economy would be kicking tale I can promise that, so I do my part I know, via stimulating the economy, creating commerce, providing a service.... I have sold a bunch of die-cast 1:24 cars since Feb (around 320), and that is nothing more then DISPOSABLE INCOME. So I guess I am seeing some tiny strides as you mentioned. Rome was not built in a day in reference to recovery, but I guess you are right it is getting a little better every day.... Edited by Silverhawk74
04/17/2013 12:05 am
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Eventually something WILL happen, and then whoever wrote the conspiracy blog that happened to be closest in time to the actual event will go "SEE I KNEW I TOLD YOU SO"... except it'll be nothing more than coincidence, the one out of a million prophecies that came true out of sheer statistical luck. Thats pretty much the best way to put it. Its like the guys who predict the end of the world. They may predict it a billion times and get lucky being right once, the problem is they only need to be right once. That said is the economy improving in some ways yes others no. The jobs market is still awful theres no denying that, but investment markets have improved at the same time theres no denying that. Is debt a problem yes and no. Right now its not and its likely not to be anytime in our life. We are sticking it to future generations though and the next generation will stick it to the one after and so on and so forth, I'm not a fan of that. We should be trying to leave it a better place for them not worse. But barring some unforeseen event the likely hood of it catching up to us is small. As of right now we have a lot of protection. Other countries just flat out need us to be doing well. We drive the world market being a massive consumer so its in their interest to keep us a float unless they want to return to the middle ages as well. If we all go down at the same time theres no reason not to just call a mulligan and wipe the debts clean instead of dragging everyone down and no one being able to pay anyone. Though people generally do stupid things in large numbers, if everyone has a vested interest in it I like to believe wed be smart enough to call it even. Yup and I disagree on the fact that this could never change but agree on the fact thats the way it is now. What the future holds long after were gone I have no idea but as of right now the world needs us. Extremists like NK and Iran may be happy to see us go but theres a reason we never do anything but posture back and forth with China (aside from the fact our military is better) as much as we may dislike them we need their goods just like as much as they may dislike us they need to be able to sell to us. |
|
Valued Member
Canada
78 Posts |
Yup76...you are not consistent in your thoughts or opinions...
In one post you you state,
"1- in the past year QE has not done a single thing to help the commodities markets. Copper is in the toilet because now we have too much than we need. Further QE from central banks will NOT pump prices and it will be limited going forward. I can go on and on and pick apart the argument that QE has not recently boosted prices"
And then you state in another post, you state, " I think going forward there will be less and less QE and that's one big reason gold and silver have come down, remember the market is a discounting mechanism that works months in advance. "
You are being being inconsistent, you first state QE has not done a single thing to help commodity markets then in other post you state less QE is big reason for gold and silver going down...if QE has not helped commodity markets like you first claimed then why in your second post do you say it is a reason for gold and silver down.
I know what are your response will be already...you will state that last round of QE has not led too recent new highs in commodity prices. This is because QE alone does not led to just new high on each round of QE, it supports prices too a point but the fundamentals are just so bad in many commodities that new highs are not being made...supply growth and just long term growth outlook around the world.
All I am saying is it is too early to say recovery has taken ahold....wait a few quarters with no QE taking place before saying this. US economy still has "training wheels" on it's bike. I just think a lot of people are jumping the gun saying this. In last little while...only somewhat positive news is housing...but amount of negative data really outweighs positive date.
Job numbers have come out horrible, consumer sentiment numbers have been disappointing, manufacturing index's disappointing, downward revision to US 2013 growth, etc.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"You are being being inconsistent, you first state QE has not done a single thing to help commodity markets then in other post you state less QE is big reason for gold and silver going down...if QE has not helped commodity markets like you first claimed then why in your second post do you say it is a reason for gold and silver down."
The end of QE would be positive. QE is the purchase of bonds and MBS. The liquidation of same will actually cause money to leave banks and that would cause the biggest rally you ever seen as the bond bubble would burst. This is exactly why QE will never end. The end of QE is the end of the 30 year bull market in bonds. A bear marketin bonds would be very bad for the dollar.
Edited by wjl
04/17/2013 04:24 am
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
It is possible for things not to affect a price going up but can bring them down. QE doesn't necessarily pump money into a commodity driving a price up, but having less of it can reduce some of the fear buying from people who think the dollar is about to tank from it.
Dont get me wrong the economy isn't great in anything but the markets and is bad in a lot of ways, but its not worse than it was and we arent on the brink of collapse.
So far in history betting against America hasnt paid off and I personally dont feel that now is the time it will as long as we dont start doing really stupid things.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"The USA will be able to continue to print the debt, sell this debt and other countries will buy the debt. "
There are no more buyers of the debt. The fed is purchasing almost all of the newly issued debt and mortgages. The reason gold rose was because the balance sheet of all central banks is terrible. It will be gold that replenishes central bank balance sheets. If you think it will be bonds, you are very badly mistaken.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"So far in history betting against America hasnt paid off and I personally dont feel that now is the time it will as long as we dont start doing really stupid things."
Actually its paid off very well. Buying debt is really a bearish bet. Once the debt loses value money will exit in the trillions for the non financial sector where commodities are purchased and then its game over. Again this is why QE will never, ever end or even slow for any considerable time.
The economy is in very bad shape. The workforce is smaller and the public debt is larger. Corporate profits are due to accelerated cost cutting and debt retirement which creates a negative feedback loop. So long as interest rates are low no one is willing to sacrafice present profit for future profit in the US, as there is no growth. Corporations have given up on America and most of their new investment is abroad.
Edited by wjl
04/17/2013 05:10 am
|
|
Valued Member
Australia
491 Posts |
I have read and followed this thread from near its beginning and what an education it has been for me. Your opinions here are being totally pulled apart, nothing escapes.
I have been trying to get a handle on investing again and shares are not for me. This thread has given me a clear direction to build on and what I will be putting into practice is buying 5g of Gold per month. A very stable approach for the longer haul.
I am forced into changing part of our investments in 6 to 8 weeks. It has been a very successful investment and looks like returning 300% plus in 12 months but our environment now makes this investment very unstable. For a couple of months now gold bullion is the way I have been leaning and after rereading this thread I just think I will go hard at it. This situation is has come about not by choice. We still have some weeks to smell the roses.
In the longer haul I can see the AU$ slipping back 20% on the US$ and I believe this gives me an extra cushion in the longer term. But what do I know?
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Actually its paid off very well. Buying debt is really a bearish bet. Once the debt loses value money will exit in the trillions for the non financial sector where commodities are purchased and then its game over. Again this is why QE will never, ever end or even slow for any considerable time. Buying debt would be betting for America. You dont buy debt you think has no value. Betting against it would be dumping every dollar you have for other things because you think it isn't worth the paper its printed on Quote:
Corporations have given up on America and most of their new investment is abroad. Theres truth to that from a bad business climate, but giving up is a bit strong. Theres waiting on the sidelines right now to see whats next. If theyd thrown in the towel they wouldnt be doing any business here. A lot are sitting on huge amounts of cash that will be ready to go when they feel the target has been taken off their back. Edited by basebal21
04/17/2013 05:16 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
bought some more early kookaburras ... don't care if they print more fiat - Perth Mint told people that they will not print more than 300K early kookas - better bet I guess)) I don't bet on a country that plays with paper and defaulted some 50 years ago already ... I wish I'd thanked my parents if they bought precious metals 15 years ago ... I want my daughter to appreciate my PM endeavor as well |
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"Buying debt would be betting for America. You dont buy debt you think has no value"
Wrong. By buying the debt you have deceided that the debt is worth more than the asset which cannot be true if the debt is to perform. The Fed is buying the debt because the market sees no value in it. However the weaker the economy the more relatively attractive the debt is.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"Theres waiting on the sidelines right now to see whats next."
Thats not what corporations do. They are making long term investments abroad in plant and equipment with money they borrow dirt cheap here.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
" I wish I'd thanked my parents if they bought precious metals 15 years ago ... I want my daughter to appreciate my PM endeavor as well"
And there you have it a rational view of gold. Rare these days.
|
| |
Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,541 |
First Page
Previous Page
Posted 04/16/2013 11:54 pm
