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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  07:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The next active contract in Silver is May. June for gold.
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  09:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The largest purchasers of gold are central banks. What you buy or what I buy has really no effect on the market. However when those who create money buy or sell gold it has a tremendous impact. The gold is the other side of the balance sheet of the central bank. As interest rates fall (see Gibson's Paradox) the value of the debt rises and the value of the gold falls in relation to each other and not neccessarily in the currency, but in the price of the bond which is the bond's value. Thus gold acts as a counterweight to the weight of the debt. As interest rates rise the value of the bonds falls and eventually the gold gets marked up. This is how it works, this is how its always worked, and the biggest risk people have taken throughout time is to the think that somewhow they are presently living in extraordinary times and somehow all this has changed. It hasn't. The laws of gravity and economics have not been repealed.
Edited by wjl
04/17/2013 09:25 am
Valued Member
david29's Avatar
United States
432 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  09:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add david29 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you have a few bucks you can part with, buy a few pieces of gold or silver. When this debt machine breaks down, you will be glad you did.
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  09:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"Yup76...you are not consistent in your thoughts or opinions..."

It stems from his misunderstanding of money.

Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  09:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"In the longer haul I can see the AU$ slipping back 20% on the US$ and I believe this gives me an extra cushion in the longer term. But what do I know?"


The Australian Dollar is absolutely my favorite currency. A 20% discount would be better than beer going on sale.
Edited by wjl
04/17/2013 09:52 am
Valued Member
Arksun's Avatar
United Kingdom
90 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  11:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Arksun to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Something else that should be said regarding the conspiracy stuff. Silver is NOT running out, so don't buy silver because you feel its going to run out anytime soon, production has increased year on year. The only reason there were shortage problems in coins this year was due to demand, this is simply supply and demand flow over time, same as how many are buying insane quantities right now cause of the price drop, nothing whatsoever to do with amount of actual silver available to mine.

One example of an existing mine increasing output:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoN...0417_MM.html

Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  11:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
really busy here but wanted to get in a few thoughts-

continue to watch silver and gold for higher highs and higher lows or lower highs with lower lows. simple. silver looks like it wants lower first as of today. I expect a range to be established for now before the next big move happens. Both are still in a downtrend nothing has changed that. time and patience are key as I always say.

@Kraven- I have been consistent. You are rigid and inflexible. Show me what commodities that benefited and went higher than their 08 levels except for a handful, I;ll give you 3 to help you out, now show me how where else in the commodity market,, did it get help from QE.... here's;s your top three. silver, gold and copper. but QE and its several waves did not boost overall commods.

Now going forward, big institutions and funds are and have been SELLING OUT. For the time being, they see no reason going forward to buy gold and silver. Its really simple. They have exited. Without them, gold and silver are going no where.


Silverhawk, Baseball, these two gentlemen stated some great points even tho we disagree from time to time- that things are getting better, that debt is being bought,, our military is much better than any ones in the world..... the world NEEDS the USA, in fact as the US pulls ahead the rest of the world will follow... all these factors mean-

1- our debt will ALWAYS be bought

2- our debt, our long bonds, our dollar, will always and continue to be sought after when there is crisis and problems, its the number one safe haven over gold.

3- the economy is getting better. again, I see it EVERY DAY. anyone who says the economy is in trouble and falling apart is living in the past. There is a lot of good positive data over negative data. WE have already been through the worst of it. There are way more positives then negatives.

4- I repeat myself- our debt everyday is printed, its sold and bought again. Period. This is how it always has been and this is how it will always be.


I could go on and on on why QE wasn't a bad thing. How the Federal Reserve achieved its objectives, why the economy IS getting better and why our debt is not an issue going forward. But this is not the place nor forum to discuss and debate this at length.

I want to keep my thread going to be useful for those who are buying silver and gold, that's what interests most..those looking for a better price and for those who want to be students of silver and gold. I have no bias WHATSOEVER in regards to its price movements, up or down.

Again I repeat myself. Gold and silver are in a strong downtrend. Being aggressive down here at these prices and going forward without any clarity on how low we can go AND not knowing what happens with gold and silver prices going forward.... could be financial ruin.

I suggest to continue to nibble and take baby steps if you are buying. If you want and have to buy, buy gold and silver that have the premium built in.

There will be better prices in the future and the train is not leaving the station.

Please do not make the mistake of putting all your money into gold and silver on the theory that things are getting worse and that in turn, they MUST go up and can only go up. That would be very unwise thinking and as the market has shown, going against what it wants to do, can cost you money. I dont think any of you, even long term holders want to start off the wrong foot with your purchases being under water.

Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  12:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I would avoid silver for the most part, except for collectible silver. But gold is different and you should accumulate over time as you accumulate wealth. I have always owned gold and I have always owned treasury bonds and together they make up a reserve that is a long term liquidity tool which allows me to assume risk. (ie buy assets that no one wants)
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  12:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Everyone has to do what they feel most comfortable with and can afford. Many feel that the gold/silver ratio is off and silver is undervalued so they feel silver a better deal. Now about 59/1
Valued Member
tofuburger's Avatar
118 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  1:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tofuburger to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Keep a diversified portfolio with PM only making 5%/max of your total asset mix!
Edited by tofuburger
04/17/2013 1:10 pm
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  2:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"Now about 59/1"

and probably headed for 200 to 1

Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  2:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Again I repeat myself. Gold and silver are in a strong downtrend. Being aggressive down here at these prices and going forward without any clarity on how low we can go AND not knowing what happens with gold and silver prices going forward.... could be financial ruin.

This is the same extreme attitude that caused people to react irrationally at a top and buy. I'll continue to accelerate my buying as the price drops I pick up more because I can afford more. Buying tops and selling bottoms is the way to financial ruin and it just so happens you read the most bullish forecasts and technicals near a top and the most bearish at the bottom.

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david29's Avatar
United States
432 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  2:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add david29 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think I am going to go out and buy some groceries with my credit card, then I am going to pay it off with my other credit card. Geez.
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  3:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Its simple if you are bullish and you don't buy a huge down move like this then you are bearish. I'm trying to find a std deviation move like the one we just had but I don't have data that goes back that far. Just from a contrarian point of view its probably a once in a lifetime occurance.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2013  4:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Keep a diversified portfolio with PM only making 5%/max of your total asset mix!


Agreed as long as its diversified youre covered whether they go up or down.

Personally Id say you could go as high as 20% of your assets but dont bet the house on them. You wouldnt take everything you own and put it into a stock or bet it all on black, this should be no different.
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