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 Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,741 |
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Personally Id say you could go as high as 20% of your assets but dont bet the house on them.
That would be considered a very bullish allocation. But certainly not inapproriate so long as one can handle the volitility.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"There will be better prices in the future and the train is not leaving the station."
Then short it. Put your money where your mouth is. I was sure the G7 agreement was bad for gold but got stopped out short towards the end of the year. I was right, but too many people were bullish and pushed up the price. They were long and caused a mispicing in gold. Now many of those same people are bearish here @1375 but were wildly bullish @1700 in December.
I don't know why it must be our poor education system or perhaps as the news media claims they are just doing too many drugs down there on Wall Street. Now thats the best explnation I've heard in years. It certainiy makes the most sense.
Edited by wjl
04/17/2013 6:26 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Wow, great conversation! Appreciate valuable views!  I understand yup's concern that buying too soon, could lead to a great loss. I still haven't made my 2nd purchase, because I see no sign that the market wants to recover. So I'll wait before buying again and treat the market like hunting a bear (much patience needed!).  @yup If I understand this correctly, highs & lows must and will be reached again at some point in time. Therefore, it is possible that we will see $20 silver (high in 2008?) and possibly $8/9 silver, the low in 2008. We could even see $4 again. And we can even see $48 again. The question is a matter of time. For the sake of argument, let's say it takes 5 years before we reach and/or break the $49 level. If one were to purchase at $26 and silver were to move to a range between $10 and $20 for the next 5 years, one would have to wait a very long time for silver to exceed $26. So if that is the plan, one must have enough cash flow to get through those years without cashing in physical silver at a major loss.  Am I on the right track here, yup? I definitely am focusing on numismatics as a hedge as well as a love for the hobby. Even silver dimes with rare dates for a small premium is a better bet than a dime for bullion value only....  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
That would be considered a very bullish allocation. But certainly not inapproriate so long as one can handle the volitility. Thatd be my max comfortable position, I probably should have said investment money since I dont think you should have money in PMs you need in the short term. Quote:
For the sake of argument, let's say it takes 5 years before we reach and/or break the $49 level. If one were to purchase at $26 and silver were to move to a range between $10 and $20 for the next 5 years, one would have to wait a very long time for silver to exceed $26. So if that is the plan, one must have enough cash flow to get through those years without cashing in physical silver at a major loss Thats the real key dont put money into it that you would need if the slightest thing goes wrong with your finances or investments. Everyone has different financials and will be able to hold different amounts. A Romney for example could hold a few million and not be worried where someone else could hold 100 ounces. Whatever the amount you wont get in trouble selling for huge losses if you dont over extend yourself into it. We almost certainly will see a push to 50 again the question is will it be 5 years 30 years but were assured of doing something stupid and spiking it again weve done it time and time again. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
@ basebal21, thanks for the sound advice. Things get a little confusing when there is talk that there could be a bank run, such as in Cyprus. So I get nervous and would rather take my $$ out of the bank and buy silver or numismatics. All this talk about how currency can become worthless is also unnerving... any thoughts on this matter?
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Silver has always been too dicey for me to ever have a long term view. It often called gold's psychotic sister, but silvers record in crisis is not good. However, most of the time it will track gold. Before this is over though I think the ratio traders will get crushed and that will present nice, but short lived opportunities in silver.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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@ basebal21, thanks for the sound advice. Things get a little confusing when there is talk that there could be a bank run, such as in Cyprus. So I get nervous and would rather take my $$ out of the bank and buy silver or numismatics. All this talk about how currency can become worthless is also unnerving... any thoughts on this matter? I mean its possible a bank run could happen unless you have so much money it wouldnt matter either way you arent a target. HOWEVER and its a big HOWEVER there is no talk or indication of anything like that happening in the US and as far as I know Canada either. I dont buy the currency is going to become worthless argument. This isn't the worst financial crisis weve ever had or even had in the last 100 years, the great depression was much worse and America pulled through. Things arent sunshine and puppies, but they arent that bad compared either. A lot of people pushing the doomsday scenarios have a vest interest in selling you things for such an instance. For example if the coin dealer really believed PMs were going to spike to record highs they wouldnt sell you any, theyd be buying as much as they can before they do so they can cash in and hoarding them. Its unlikely well see the dollar collapse in our lifetime. I wont ever say something couldnt happen but on the list of things to worry about in life that doesn't crack the top 100 and probably not the top 1000. We arent as fragile of a nation as were made out to be and the world has a vested interest in our financial survival with how much we buy as a consumer nation. That said I am a HUGE fan of diversifaction with your money. If theres a bank run you have your have your stocks and pms, if the stocks tank you have your bank account and pms, if the pms tank your have your stocks and your bank account. As long as you dont have all your money in one place a single incident or market set back/crash will not break you. If you invested in the stock market you likely wouldnt put your entire investment in one stock, money should be the same way. Even just from a coin perspective a spread of numismatic and pm coins can protect that as well. Numismatic coins are generally protected during a pm crash while pm coins generally flourish when numismatic markets are down from a bad economy. You may not make any money but you can better preserve what you have. I personally recommend a mix of a bank account, stocks/investments, pms, and numismatic coins, and if possible an emergency cash supply somewhere incase you need it for whatever reason. Nothing like a mattress full of money but some bills stashed somewhere is never a terrible idea. Basically just dont put your eggs in one basket and spread out what you have to protect yourself from a single crash of any sort wiping you out Edited by basebal21
04/17/2013 7:19 pm
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"Things get a little confusing when there is talk that there could be a bank run, such as in Cyprus. So I get nervous and would rather take my $$ out of the bank and buy silver or numismatics. "All this talk about how currency can become worthless is also unnerving... any thoughts on this matter?"
Thats two separate things. A bank run is caused by a shortage of cash which is deflationary. As such the remedy would be to hold cash under your direct control. Currency becoming worthless is not a bank problem, that is hyperinflation. In which case you get thee to gold.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"If theres a bank run you have your have your stocks and pms"
How do you sell them if there is a shortage of cash? I'll be happy to buy your silver with a McDonalds gift card. If you got gold, I have Red Lobster too.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
"That said I am a HUGE fan of diversifaction with your money.....Even just from a coin perspective a spread of numismatic and pm coins can protect that as well. Numismatic coins are generally protected during a pm crash while pm coins generally flourish when numismatic markets are down from a bad economy. You may not make any money but you can better preserve what you have."
Thanks for the great advice, basebal21! Makes sense to protect oneself in as many situations as possible. I'm learning to appreciate the value of numismatics, especially now that PM's are tanking. There tends to be an attitude of resisting to buy silver at a premium (especially bullion), because if silver were to rise dramatically in value, then the coin would only be worth spot. I often felt that I might be making a mistake to focus on nicer/higher end coins, should the value of silver exceed the numismatic value and/or premium. But now I'm glad I didn't pay much attention to that attitude and feel more secure about my collection.
"Thats two separate things. A bank run is caused by a shortage of cash which is deflationary. As such the remedy would be to hold cash under your direct control. Currency becoming worthless is not a bank problem, that is hyperinflation. In which case you get thee to gold."
Are we in or headed for either one of those stages at this time, wjl? Some say we are in a deflationary period because PMs are going down...any thoughts?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
How do you sell them if there is a shortage of cash? I'll be happy to buy your silver with a McDonalds gift card. If you got gold, I have Red Lobster too. Bank runs dont wipe out cash supplies. Even in Cyprus accounts werent cleaned out Quote:
A dealer has to sell to pay the bills. A dealer that only buys is not a dealer but an investor.
Thats misleading. A coin dealer doesn't have to sell any PMs they just have to have sales. Just like they get numismatic items they dont want to sell they would be hoarding PMs if they thought theyd make a ton of money in the near future. Edited by basebal21
04/17/2013 8:19 pm
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"For example if the coin dealer really believed PMs were going to spike to record highs they wouldnt sell you any, theyd be buying as much as they can before they do so they can cash in and hoarding them."
A dealer has to sell to pay the bills. A dealer that only buys is not a dealer but an investor.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Hey, whilst we're discussing, silver took a big leg down to $22.63.  Time to get ready for another nibble!  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Wow, and to think all the American Idol watchers are missing this!  Although I didn't miss Candice sing!  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1126 Posts |
Even with tonight's dip it is still not over.
Still more short contracts to settle and more sell stops
to pop.
This is a MOPE event. "Management Of Perspective Economics"
Metals Bad..... Paper Good
Just listen to the Main Stream Financial Media
We know their track record it Great
Yeah Right
Edited by stewart
04/17/2013 9:42 pm
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,741 |
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Posted 04/17/2013 6:09 pm
