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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  09:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My local dealer (on Monday) told me for the past few months, even before this huge drop, he has been selling for the mostpart. Not much coming in. I'm sure he's made a lot over the past few years with buy/sell, but now needs product. His premiums up but still less than most online places for 90%.
Pillar of the Community
Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  09:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Those who stand to RISK the most stand to LOSE the most. But they also stand to MAKE the most. But those who DO indeed risk the most, stand a much higher percentage chance of LOSING more then they MAKE in the long run, as the house always wins in the long run, just ask Vegas....

Interesting how that fact is interwoven into the fabrics of our existence...
Edited by Silverhawk74
04/18/2013 09:39 am
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  09:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
People who seek safety are the ones who actually end up paying the risk takers.
Pillar of the Community
Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  09:47 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I could agree from that angle as well WJL, but FAR more fail on the way to becoming the big dawg RISK taker, then those who make it I figure....

I think there must be a fine line of moderation where being safe and bearish perhaps at times, and bullish in others comes to play eh....

Sure there will always be leaders and there will always be followers but there is much grey area in-between as well....
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  09:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"as the house always wins in the long run, just ask Vegas.... "

Trump Plaza just sold for a paltry 20 million dollars." Both that house and the house that lent 130 million dollars on that lost. But under a system that privatizes profits and socializes loss you are not well served by owning either the asset or the debt. The house loses big time when people hoard either gold or cash outside the system. While I don't beleive that is happening to any large extent, its is becoming more prevalent.

Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  10:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
but FAR more fail on the way to becoming the big dawg RISK taker, then those who make it I figure....

Personally, (your experiences may be different) I've lost far more money buying things after a big rise in the long run than buying things in a decline. One of them was Enron. But unlike commodities, stock can and do go to zero. Even blue chips. There are companies that were once in the S & P 500 and DOW that don't even exist anymore and thats where true risk lies, but gold and silver are still around in the exact same form. Your biggest risk is always perception and its difficult to gauge peoples perceptions, just know that they are almost always false and that most people's beliefs are rooted in fallacies and misunderstandings.

As for trading I have executed thousands of trades and I don't think I ever bought an absolute bottom or absolute top or even really came close in any relative sense. Its basically a fools endeavor and why the most traders only break even in the long run, at best. The best traders I knew though got their experience trading commodities and were not technical traders. I knew so many people who got crushed technical trading because they had absolutely no fundamental sense of what they were trading.

Edited by wjl
04/18/2013 10:25 am
Valued Member
miggs's Avatar
Canada
281 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  10:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add miggs to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
By all accounts, there's a disconnect between the paper and the physical prices, especially with
silver. I cannot remember premiums this high. Many are saying the CRIMEX will default very soon,
hence the smack down. As I read "A default can occur if too many longs stand for delivery"
If only 10% stand for delivery, it seems that's enough to wipe it out
There's always more than one reason when the powers that be decide to do these serious actions.Who really knows? I don't have crystal ball. There's also a Barrick gold mine in Chili that is shut down since last week and a Utah mine because of a collapse. All I know is I am trying to buy right now, not because I think silver is only going up from here but because it's getting scarce regardless of price
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  10:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"Many are saying the CRIMEX will default very soon,
hence the smack down. As I read "A default can occur if too many longs stand for delivery"

I think that is highly unlikely. What happened when paper prices were rising in 2011 rapidly and Comex stocks were falling? They simply raise margin requirements and the leverage and thus the danger of default leaves the market.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  12:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Today the action continues mid day as a continued chop that I have talked about, basically going no where. which again, not out of the ordinary.

Both still continue to be in a downtrend.

Just a wait and see time period for now :O)
Valued Member
kavern23's Avatar
Canada
78 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kavern23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
More negative news for US economy...seems like a daily occurence each day..."The index of U.S. leading indicators unexpectedly declined in March, and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region slowed this month, adding to evidence the economy will cool.

The Conference Board's gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months fell 0.1 percent last month, the first drop since August"


lol...US stock markets get abit of a bump earlier due to last round of QE, low interest rates, and everyone thinks we are in a good recovery.

I wonder how long until another stimulus package is announced.

Even in Canada hearing interest rates are not expected to increase until mid 2015...so much slack in all these economies.

But like Yup says, we are in a good recovery everywhere...things are so great.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  2:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

lol...US stock markets get abit of a bump earlier due to last round of QE, low interest rates, and everyone thinks we are in a good recovery.


Everything is relative. Are we in the 90s or 2004 no. Are we in the 1920s no. The economy isn't great a lot of things about it are pretty bad, but they arent any worse than they were a few years ago and are slightly better. Not as better as they should be but technically any improvement is a recovery.

Things have gotten better in spite of our current policies not because of them and will if we just stay out of the way
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  3:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
We are creating about 6 dollars of new debt for every $1 of growth. Until that changes there will be no meaningful recovery. The negative real interest rates must go away. Investing into negative rates is a death wish.
Edited by wjl
04/18/2013 3:10 pm
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  3:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wjl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
QE was supposed to create jobs. It didn't create any jobs it just kept things rolling along for enough time for people to fall off the unemployment rolls.

Just as in the case of Japan QE supports an arbitrage or carry where you borrow in one place and buy in another and it only makes things worse. This is not sidelined money its long term investment in plant and equipment meaning its not coming back.
Pillar of the Community
Northerncoins's Avatar
Canada
2019 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  4:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Northerncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If an economy is "better off" going further in debt by hundreds of billions if not trillions every 6 months with a very slim to no chance of ever paying it off then we truly do live in a fantasy world. I guess I will just stay in my own little world and buy P/Ms , at least I don't owe any money anymore and never will again.
Pillar of the Community
allspice's Avatar
Canada
746 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2013  5:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add allspice to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@ Kavern23 "I wonder how long until another stimulus package is announced."

I think there is a FOMC meeting April 30/May 1st. Wonder what Ben has up his sleeve? Maybe a surprise QE or another operation twist or something completely different?
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