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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,766 |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: If an economy is "better off" going further in debt by hundreds of billions if not trillions every 6 months with a very slim to no chance of ever paying it off then we truly do live in a fantasy world. Were never paying the debt off ever people need to stop thinking thats possible. We probably wont ever get it back under 10 trillion the interest is too high. That said its not the highest its ever been in GDP percentage. Its of concern but its not at panic levels. We have room to work with we just need to not blow it all at once on stupid stuff like were trying our best to do. But if increasing debt is the only measure than weve been getting worse since 1949. Like I said no ones claiming its puppies and kittens good, but you really cant argue its not as bad as it was in 09 at the height of the crash
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"If an economy is "better off" going further in debt by hundreds of billions if not trillions every 6 months with a very slim to no chance of ever paying it off then we truly do live in a fantasy world."
The debt would never be paid off even under ideal circumstances. The debt can only be serviced. The debt cannot be ever discharged, as debt is the basis upon which the money is issued. If the avg treasury rates were to double nearly the entire fed budget would go to service the debt.
Edited by wjl 04/18/2013 6:12 pm
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"guess I will just stay in my own little world and buy P/Ms , at least I don't owe any money anymore and never will again."
That should work but you will see a short cover rally as the voliility settles out and you could see some more weakness, but it probably wont matter after a few months. I'm just sitting on my Etf long gold only now. No need to hedge as I have raised considerble cash. This feels a lot like the Lehman moment, but this time I'm better positioned. You live, you learn.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Gold and Silver, as I have stated since February in this thread and in even earlier postings, have been and are in a downtrend.
This wont be resolved 1-2-3. In fact, I don't think many realize how serious the selling has been and what its saying, what the serious implications are going forward.
Many don't believe the economy is getting better, has gotten better. Some of you need to do some serious unbiased soul searching to really examine why you feel this way when the facts show things are getting better.
At every juncture of this selling, everyone has been grasping for any sort of glimmer of hope or reason, that will send silver and gold higher. Yet the reactions to everything that could be viewed as positive for gold and silver, have been contrary.
First, since November, the Fed meetings and minutes have resulted in negative reactions for gold and silver. That's been time and time again, minutes come out, gold and silver drop, even in the face of continue bond buying.
Secondly, Many tried to pin hope for higher prices on events in Europe. Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, and on and on. Yet these instances have been similar, these events and their reactions with regards to silver and gold, have not boosted the price, instead one can hear the big sound of whiffing, such as when the big hitter on the team comes up to the plate and strikes the air with his bat and misses the ball,,, repeatedly. That whiffing sound is the dropping price of silver and gold in front of what many think should support PMs.
Yet even if those events aren't enough to give big clues that gold and silver have for now played out their usefulness for the time being, we now can see with price and volume that those who can run the price higher are indeed doing the exact opposite,,, they are selling out of their positions, have been for a while now.
In fact, the same people who have been misleading the public about silver and gold, are the same ones who have siliently been selling out of big postions of gold and silver ahead of this decline. Sprott is one such individual who has duped countless hopeless and unknowing silver bugs.
Without strong buying and accumulation as we had seen, gold and silver are going nowhere. The sooner one can grasp this and come to terms with it, the better one will be off.
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Valued Member
United Kingdom
90 Posts |
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Valued Member
Canada
281 Posts |
What a laughable hit piece US.Constitution- Article 1 Section 10
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
How is someone providing a factual analysis laughable and what does that clause have to do with anything
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Why would anyone listen to a college professor? Like when professor Bernanke told you there was no housing crisis. I found that many things I was taught in colege turned out to be false. Such as quantity of money theory. Willfully false. Colege professors have zero crediibility.
My largest position in equities has been in fast food. It been the leadership, But I have been selling out as I think the economy is getting worse.
Edited by wjl 04/19/2013 03:12 am
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
I agree just because a college professor says something doesn't make it true, but like anything in life it doesn't make it false either. You have to take everything they say individually and examine it for its validity unless its just coming from some of the ones that are political hacks and have proven time and again not worth the time to even listen too.
Hes not arguing its worthless hes making rational points about it and at the end advises for a diversified portfolio that cant be argued as the best way to protect your investments. He even states the metals can be part of it and advises 5-10 percent. You could argue that it could be a little higher but theres nothing irrational or even remotely resembling a hit piece about that
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5838 Posts |
Quote: Colege professors have zero crediibility. I have one college professor that told his entire class at the end of the semester that do not apply the method I have taught you in class at your future jobs. Thanks Pro! Edit: But I learned the terminology to used in work.
Edited by macmercury 04/19/2013 03:26 am
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"Secondly, Many tried to pin hope for higher prices on events in Europe. Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, and on and on. Yet these instances have been similar, these events and their reactions with regards to silver and gold, have not boosted the price, instead one can hear the big sound of whiffing, such as when the big hitter on the team comes up to the plate and strikes the air with his bat and misses the ball,,, repeatedly. That whiffing sound is the dropping price of silver and gold in front of what many think should support PMs."
The gold rally was caused by the loss of prinicipal on the european bonds. Those bonds have rallied. The end of QE would cause a big rally in gold as US bonds are much, much more widely held. The funds follow the central banks, not the other way around. Once the European eletion is over it wil be t same thing. The bonds are in weak hands just as gold was. That just changed. Gold and Silver have been in a down trend for almost two years now.
Edited by wjl 04/19/2013 03:33 am
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
"I have one college professor that told his entire class at the end of the semester that do not apply the method I have taught you in class at your future jobs."
He should have taped that and then sue the college.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5838 Posts |
I didn't mention he said "Every job have their method of working!"
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Its actually the US economy that has outlived it usefulness so far as capital is concerned. Most corporations have been liquidating US assets and investing overseas. So we shed produtive assets and replace them with debt. God help the debt markets if the economy recovers.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Under normal circustances I like diversication. However, these are not normal cirucumstances. Negative real rates are bad for investment in producive assets, but generally good for non productive assets which is why bonds of high quality issuers and gold have done so well the last decade. So, as a firm you will therefore cut costs and increase nominal ouput. What you will not do is invest or borrow. This process can only be reversed by markng down the currency. It my opinion that this will occur slowly, and as such there will be no substantial recovery in the US for one to two decades. Thats the time it will take to purge the bad debts from the system. Until that happens the US will remain just a repository for debt, not capital. No capital, no growth.
I do think however, that towards 2015 we will see Europe resolved and they will have a better currency or currencies. I think by then, the Euro will be fixed one way or another. After that brief renasince in the US and Europe, we will fall again.
Edited by wjl 04/19/2013 05:34 am
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,766 |