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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Um, you all *do* realize that silver is $2 less per ounce today than it was one year ago? This is a normal valley period, silver will be at $33-$35 by the end of September, guaranteed. Its more than 2 and its half of where it was 2 years ago, is that just a valley as well? You cant guarantee that and claiming you can is frankly absurd |
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New Member
United States
27 Posts |
What's the next upward benchmark for SLV after 23.10?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Just had an interesting read on Bloomberg. It seems the Indian premiums are 500 percent of where they were pre-fall. Which means that a LOT of people went out and bought on the expectation of lower prices. Now it seems that they paid MORE for Gold based on perception. I guess in some parts of the world this was a sellers dream. As the public had a perception of lower prices and bought without checking whether the prices had in fact gone down. And that included this country as well. I talked to several dealers that told me that their premiums went way up, as they were NOT going to sell at a loss; and spot be darned!
In fact I know a couple of dealers that have kept their premiums constant while the price has gone up. Meaning that pre-fall they had a 10 percent markeup. At 1500/oz they were selling ( or at least ASKING) $1650. At $1350 they were selling at a 20 percent premium ( which I guess is less than the 50 percent premium in India). This brought the price up to $1620, and finally when it hit $1320 they had a 25 percent premium which brought it up to $1650.
Now that the price is approaching $1500 again their premiums are still at 20 percent.
But all of that is a pure numbers game as actual sells are almost nil. I know I haven't sold any gold. I haven't even had anyone ask about gold. Silver on the other was on fire but has now toned down as the panic buyers have spent their money and everyone else is waiting to see where the price goes next.
Edited by jmkendall
04/30/2013 08:29 am
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Nice observations by Jim.
One quick thought before I get into today's brief morning note-
I do feel that the public is going to get slammed hard, very hard with gold and silver prices and I think many are going to get trapped with buying all these PMs and come to find out that the PMs wont be doing much in the coming years. So they loaded up and they are basically underwater on their purchases, that wont be fun.
Sum it up, I think folks who are going on these buying binges as the price drops are not going to be happy campers and I feel like they are going to be trapped, with a loss in all their purchases, and then they will whine about manipulation.
this morning-
using GLD and SLV as your proxies for you guys playing along at home-
GLD, more of the same, chop and doing nothing. Higher high over yesterday.. but not a lower low compared to yesterday. We are building a base with this kind of chop, there will come a time where the market decides what to do next, whether that is to go higher and bust past that gap, or start a new leg lower. so again, just be patient, watch and wait, give it time.
SLV, continues to look weaker to me and as I had noted a couple posts back its lagging gold. thus far today, lower high and lower low.. contrast that with gold. I am saying one day changes things? No. The day is still young, but this is how we start to notice any changes in trend or possible further weakness, all by paying attention close to price.
as always if anything changes during the day I'll write up a quick note and we'll see you at the close
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
@ jmkendall, interesting fluctuation of premiums to compensate for volatility. I think Gainesville coins has dropped its premium on American Eagles ($4.75 above spot) and Provident metals now has 2013 Kookaburras for $4.20 above spot. Hopefully premiums will keep dropping...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
alright gang, got a second here-
Today, just a day of chop, going nowhere for the short term. However, tomorrow we have the FOMC, that might be a mover for the PMs. In that case.....
I want to repeat myself for the hundredth time... what is important for gold is NOT what they say. What is important is golds REACTION to what they say.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
thanks yup, what time does Mr. Ben speak tomorrow? Interested to see how gold/silver reacts to what he says...
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
I sold the gold ETF today. Nice profit.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Allspice-
The meeting actually started today and continues tomorrow. However, they will release a statement in regards to what was decided today.
You can catch the statement live via the Internet, or via news outlets such as Bloomberg or CNBC and via their own web site at federalreserve.gov web site. The statement will be 2 PM EST.
Should be interesting day for the metals.. or perhaps, nothing happens, we don't know yet. But these events can be turning points or give us clues as to what the market wants to do or already knows.
As a side point, I suggest you also watch the long bond, the us dollar which also gives clues.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Thanks yup. Will tune in at 2 PM EST and watch how the market reacts. Watching and searching for clues makes more sense than getting confused with various predictions regarding QE, interest rates, state of economy, etc.... helps to keep one on track and stay focused...
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
They will sell gold to give Mr. "its just a sub prime crisis" Bernanke some badly needed credibility. Hey comrade the shortage of toilet paper is because eating more and living better. All is well.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
morning guys quick note-
again our proxies GLD and SLV, and yes, these are more important than your physical coins of gold and silver, no matter how much kicking and screaming you all do, your coins are beholden the futures market, NOT the other way around...
GLD - gap down, first day of the month. Watch to see if the sellers can maintain this gap down
SLV- also a gap down, once again, can the sellers keep this down
watch to see what happens, remember also we have FOMC statement at 2 PM EST, watch the REACTION,, NOT what the Fed says...
more later
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
As a suggestion I say start pulling out your wish lists and look for deals, if we commence another leg down in prices there will be some nice deals to be had.
For myself I am hunting down some Somalian gold elephants and the UAE recently released some gold coins that I find interesting. However, I am looking for my collection,, not investment.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Just for fun, crystal ball stuff. because I really don't KNOW..lol.
My predictions are that if ben says more QE, that is unchanged, we will have an 80 bounce from the daily low as the bulls take the ball and run with it. The same for silver but a 2 dollar bounce from the daily low. If he says we will have a graduated closing extending till the middle of next year. then both might gain a little, but basically stay in the the range they are in right now ( 1348 Etime). If he ends it ( not likely) see a biiiiiiiig drop. If QE gets downshifted inbetween then a fair drop followed by a general grade.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Well,, quick note here.. statement came and went. no interest in the metals at this point, however both gold and silver are at the HOD. Lets see if this pushes gold and silver into positive territory for today.
I want to remind you all as I said last time,, the longer the base and chop, sideways movement, when the time comes for the real move,breaking out of this range, it will be big, swift and furious, either up or down.
BTW,,, I want to point out something else, something that many of you get wrong quite frequently here. JUST because the dollar goes down, does NOT mean PMs go higher. Today is a perfect example of that.
So remember that for the future,, and the key lesson is- many times correlations break down.
be back later
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Posted 04/29/2013 11:21 pm
