Gold Below $1500?

The heck of it, Hawk, is that I really wish the economy was improving as much as they say that it is. If it was, it would be creating a lot more jobs and the resulting tax receipts would be a lot higher than they are. In fact, tax receipts would be rising instead of falling. The US Treasury publishes this info but it is buried deep in a very large document so is not easily found. It's good that there are some people / companies out there that know how to find this info and present it in a clear manner so those of us who do not work with these numbers for a living can understand them and their implications for the economy.

My guess is that the economy will continue to look as if it is doing better as we head towards the fall elections. Great efforts will be made to put as much lipstick on this pig of an economy as possible. Unfortunately, a pig is still a pig no matter how fancily it is dressed up.

After that, though, it is anyone's guess as to what will happen. I will feel a lot better to be out of the market come early October. That could very well mean missing some good gains in the typically good Nov-Jan time period but I am willing to risk that rather than face some steep losses that could easily occur once it becomes clear to one and all that the economy is not really recovering from the 2008 recession and is still stuck in it.

As to what I will be in... PMs, of course, but also some food, fiber, and fuel commodities as well... and some cash for any buying opportunities that may come along. I might also look into buying some land in a nice area.

That might be the theory, Fredd, but from what I have seen, prices move up pretty fast with most coins as the MS number increases. I was looking at a few pre-33 US $10 gold pieces last night. The MS62 version was about $930, the MS63 about $1130, and the MS64 about $1630. All were very good looking coins but the prices were moving up fast as the MS number increased. Also, some of the graded ASEs that I have seen show a similar effect with MS70 coins going for at least 50% more money than the same coin in MS69. I dunno... maybe at the dealer level there are 10% differences in prices but I'm not seeing that in the retail market. Am I looking in the wrong places (Provident, SilverTowne, APMEX)?

I guess I just don't have a numismatist's eye for the fine detail that separates an MS69 and an MS70. They look pretty much the same to me, so paying $80 for a MS70 ASE vs. $45 for an MS69 seems excessive. Yes, I know... perfection has its price and all that but unless that MS70 can be sold for quite a bit more than that MS69 a few years down the road, it seems money well spent to buy the MS69. That's still a VERY nice coin.

One of the few numismatic coins that I really like are the high relief cameo type coins. Not sure what the production process is for them but they are gorgeous works of art. I don't own any but I have admired them in various coin shops at times. I think that if I was going to buy an expensive coin and put it away for a long time, it would be some of these.

Your observations are correct, I'm simply pointing out that the Sheldon scale was meant for pricing, not grading.

Until every ms70 will regrade at ms70, there is no reason for them to sell for more than ms69, because there's no guarantee that they're actually better.

Not for the NCLT's, I doubt. But for common coins, I can understand your logic. But here's something to consider: those highly graded silver coins can oxidize over the years, so a slabbed MS-70 coin will not necessarily be the perfect example one would expect to be purchasing if it was slabbed 10+ years ago. I kind of wish the graders would place a grade date on the slabs(maybe you can look this up on their site?) so buyers would know that the grade they're getting may not be accurate.

Another reason the differential will become much lower. The only way a ms70 can go is down, either because more are discovered, or because they deteriorate in the holder.

I forget the coin, but one 1 known none higher was downgraded, resulting in a 90%+ drop in value.

Ah, OK, understood. I guess that I was thinking that price and grade were so closely related as to be virtually the same thing.



I can see that would be the case but perhaps people who buy these coins look more at the MS number on the packaging than they do at the coin itself and then decide what to pay or ask for that particular coin.

To my untrained eyes, both are exquisite, so differentiating them isn't possible for me. Because of this, paying quite a lot more for the MS70 just does not seem realistic. Oh, well. Not every aspect of coin or bullion collecting is for all collectors.