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Moderator
 United States
189502 Posts |
Blame (but do not hate) the speculators.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Maybe I am just lucky but I have NEVER been shut out of ANY Mint offering. I sign in on day one and get what I want. I just can't sympathize with those who delay ordering and then complain...
I was out of the country (slow internet and one laptop) for the 25th Annie set and was able to log in three times and get 30 sets...
Snooze you lose...
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Blame (but do not hate) the speculators. It's not even them, it's collectors themselves and the nature of collecting. For example if someone pulled out a 1990 Vf Lincoln everyone would say spend it, it's just pocket change to many were minted ect ect. Now if someone pulls out a VDB everyone thinks its cool and should be kept. Now if you apply that to US mint products, that 1990 is a mint to demand or unlimited mintage product while the VDB is a limited mintage product that sold out quickly. The nature of collecting is simply that when someone is deemed to common or too easy to get A LOT of collectors lose interest. For every one collector that wants unlimited everything from the mint there's probably 50 that lose interest when that happens. If you get something that sold out in a few minutes or an hour it seems more special than something that sat on the website all year which almost certainly will go down in price because of that. |
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New Member
 United States
11 Posts |
thanks all for the comments - interesting perspectives. I guess most look for the rarities, while I am looking to have a complete sets - I'm not looking for the valuable coins, though I'm sure when I get ready to hand my collection down, it would be nice to know that there are some valuable issues that my family could appreciate.
I don't expect action from the mint - I'm probably venting more than anything.
As for snooze you lose, yeah, I've been guilty of that a few times. But on the two occasions where I could not get coins from the mint on opening day, it wasn't for lack of trying and persistence... one time I got shut out by trying to place a phone order (back in 2011) and the other time was trying the web site - lots of lost hours and no immediate return. I did eventually get my coins, from the secondary market, so all worked out.
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Moderator
United States
189502 Posts |
Quote:
It's not even them, it's collectors themselves and the nature of collecting. For example if someone pulled out a 1990 Vf Lincoln everyone would say spend it, it's just pocket change to many were minted ect ect. Now if someone pulls out a VDB everyone thinks its cool and should be kept. I disagree. I stand by what I said. The speculators have a much larger impact on how these releases play out than collectors at large (who may have some impact for the reasons you give). I am a collector. I could not care less about mintage limits or rarity. I either like a offering or I do not, so I either buy it or I do not. I am not unique in this opinion, so it can be said that a subset (large or small) of collectors are not driven by the hype. Speculators, on the other hand, are driven by the hype because that is how the game is played. They are way more likely to exploit ways around household limits and other restrictions that will ultimately maximize their impact. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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I disagree. I stand by what I said. The speculators have a much larger impact on how these releases play out than collectors at large (who may have some impact for the reasons you give).
I am a collector. I could not care less about mintage limits or rarity. I either like a offering or I do not, so I either buy it or I do not. I am not unique in this opinion, so it can be said that a subset (large or small) of collectors are not driven by the hype.
Speculators, on the other hand, are driven by the hype because that is how the game is played. They are way more likely to exploit ways around household limits and other restrictions that will ultimately maximize their impact. You can't speculate without a collector base that you know will want it. The way collectors treat many other aspects of the market show the general mentality with the modern products as well. Common and to easy to get always means reduced interest. That doesn't mean that every collector reacts that way as there are a percentage that just want one no matter what. That said most do not feel the same way. If you really want to get technical most collectors won't even touch moderns for being to common. Collectors drive the market no one else. Dealers and flippers go for what they think collectors will want, and if it doesn't work they don't repeat it. Look at the gold Walkers, Mercs, and SLQs, sales slowed because collectors didn't care. There's no way to force product on collectors and there are very general trends that the majority do like. Doesn't mean everyone will like it, or that everyone would even admit it, but one thing that is consistently present in the hobby is that a large portion of collectors in general shun things they deem to common. |
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Moderator
United States
189502 Posts |
Fair points.
I still blame the speculators. Collector motivation may drive their actions, but they are still their actions.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1375 Posts |
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...most collectors won't even touch moderns for being to common. Really? Then just who IS buying the 1/2 million proof sets and the 1/4 million mint sets produced each year? Or for that matter, even the modern 1/3 million prf ASEs produced each year? Looks to me like there must be plenty of modern collectors out there, but of course I wouldn't know for sure as I can only speak for myself   with jbuck on this one  Edited by BadDog
01/17/2019 6:25 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Really? Then just who IS buying the 1/2 million proof sets and the 1/4 million mint sets produced each year? Or for that matter, even the modern 1/3 million prf ASEs produced each year? Looks to me like there must be plenty of modern collectors out there, but of course I wouldn't know for sure as I can only speak for myself
A half a million is not where close to the number of actual collectors. But if you really want to get down to it a lot of those are purchased looking for the top grades with the collectors want and then the ones that fall short are dumped. I never said there weren't modern collectors. Your numbers prove exactly what I said, a lot of collectors ignore moderns. That is changing with the internet and newer generations getting into collecting, but a couple hundred thousand is a big nothing burger in the overall collecting community. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1375 Posts |
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...then the ones that fall short are dumped. Dumped where? into circulation? or are they sold to those collectors who don't ignore moderns and don't demand a 70 grade? Quote:
...most collectors won't even touch moderns for being to common. Quote:
...a lot of collectors ignore moderns. Just a bit of inconsistency in these two statements. Which is it most? or a lot? Without a broad, statistically accurate survey of collectors, I just don't think generalities like these can be made. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Nevermind. You win with your word games. I'll keep to myself.
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Moderator
United States
54283 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
I would hazard a guess that SOMEONE is paying for all those completed ebay sales...many at pretty decent prices. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1613 Posts |
I have been hearing quite a bit between this forum and various sites/publications of a quick sell out on January 24th for the two-coin set (100,00 mintage maximum) and how only dealers will get them. Not true at all. According to both the mailer I received and the website there is a five set minimum. Sure, dealers already have buyers lined up to purchase them on their behalf, but I predict a sell out no sooner than six p.m. the same evening. Last years Reverse Proof Set was a perfect example. I got three with no problem what so ever around five o'clock. Despite many getting the "unavailable at this time" message, thousands became available within a few days. In the end, they were still for sale weeks after the initial date. So I believe this will happen again. As for mint products, I buy at least a regular proof and silver proof every year. Which I have since the early nineties. Yet in defense of those who don't due to cost, I've found that in time they can be had at or below original price. For instance, I've acquired nearly all of the seventies and eighties sets at a fraction on ebay. To further prove my point, the 1999 Silver Proof was once over $120 dollars. Today, they are around half of that, or about ten-fifteen over issue. But that's not to imply all sets will follow suit. The 1996 Prestige, which I bought from the mint, is still at 250 plus. ANA member - PAN Member - BCCS Member There are no problems only solutions - the late, great John Lennon
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12845 Posts |
I agree with you on the 70s & 80s sets being available for cheap. However, based on completed sales on ebay, I think you can get the 1996 Prestige closer to $175-$200 if you're patient enough and wait for an auction vs. a BIN. |
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Posted 01/17/2019 2:40 pm
