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1878 7/8 Tf Question

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 Posted 06/28/2010  08:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
That's extremely strong money for "close to MS64." As in, twice what I'd pay. The seller obviously knows about VAM's; therefore, you can assume this one isn't a real value-added variety. 7/8TF's are neat, but not all carry huge premiums, and I'd take a pass on this one unless you can identify something significant he's missed.
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 Posted 06/28/2010  6:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list

Quote:
That's extremely strong money for "close to MS64." As in, twice what I'd pay. The seller obviously knows about VAM's; therefore, you can assume this one isn't a real value-added variety. 7/8TF's are neat, but not all carry huge premiums, and I'd take a pass on this one unless you can identify something significant he's missed.



SuperDave,

Thanks for your opinion. This coin is slabbed and graded by PCGS. Also it seems to be in line with prices in the greysheet. Could you give me some more insight on this please. Am I missing something? Thanks,
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 Posted 06/28/2010  11:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list
the only way I would pay that much for a 63 is if it was some type of rarer VAM. I love 1878 Morgans but that is high to me even if greysheet says its worth that much. 63's are very common and can be found raw in that grade with e ASE
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 Posted 06/29/2010  06:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list
Now I am very confused. If the Morgan is not worth what the greysheet says it is, then how do you put a price on it? Should I cancel my subscription to Greysheet?
BTW, the seller called last night and told me that he did not think this was the right coin for me due to the fact that I was looking for 4 feather tips showing. So I am back to the hunt. Thanks for all the info.
Edited by Wornslick
06/29/2010 06:35 am
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 Posted 07/02/2010  8:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
Especially with regard to Morgans, I am very leery of printed price lists. It must be said first: all published price lists are written by those with a vested interest in coin prices being high. I say this not as a moral judgment - there are as many honorable men among them as anywhere else - but to illustrate what might be a bit of bias, even a subconscious one.

When you hear me quote a price here at CCF, I base my opinion either on recent personal experience, or the recent real-world results of actual coin sales as I see them at Heritage, Teletrade or ebay. I subscribe to no list. I read no list. I consult no dealer asking prices. Coins are worth what people are paying for them today, not what some publisher says they're worth.

In the real world, the great majority of 1878 7/8TF VAMs below MS65 are not value-added pieces. They're insufficiently rare. Inflated prices you might see paid for one are either someone with more money than brains, or a misattribution which the buyer knew more about than the seller. A 7/8TF Morgan must be accurately attributed to the specific VAM before any price decision is made - some are rarer above MS63 than others, and depending on how bad you want that specific one for your collection a small premium might be in order for it - but again, most are common enough that they do not command extra money.

PCGS' Strong/Weak labels are useless with regard to pricing. Furthermore, the 3 and 4 tailfeather types vary by strike, showing the feathers in more or less detail, making them difficult to attribute by just that feature. I pay no attention to the tailfeathers on any 7/8 except those advertised as "0" or "5." The unique attributes to each are sufficient to make a tailfeather count irrelevant.

If you want "just a 7/8TF Morgan" for your collection, as a type piece, wait until the coin you like the looks of is available at a non-premium price for the grade. And, at least with Morgans, don't let anysheet be your guide.

As you mentioned offline, 1879-S Rev 78's are a different story in Mint State. These do carry a premium, but again it can be expected to vary by VAM. Some are vanishingly rare in Uncirculated condition. Attribution is key.

Morgan dollars, to my mind, are a very different animal than most other type coins. Only Bust Halves and Lincolns have anywhere near such a large, dedicated following, and Morgans are unique in that most of the varieties have yet to be counted where the rubber meets the road. For all but the rarest, nobody actually knows how many there are, and most published rarity figures are probably too conservative. The body of work regarding Morgans is very much still a work in progress. Even though they were melted in the millions, they still also exist in the millions, and figures as accurate as those for Bust Half varieties will probably not exist in my lifetime.
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 Posted 07/02/2010  10:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list
Dave;... probably the most sensible and honest speech I ever have read about Morgans.
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 Posted 07/03/2010  12:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add aladinslamp to your friends list
HEAR HEAR!! fabulous..Reading...its pertains to collecting in general.... with exception to certain coins the numbers are not exact. in fact as Dave points out they seem to be readily available....It takes time and aquired knowledge to know weayther any coin s a great buy, and most we would be over paying for in 20 years of so this could be different.....the price could go up.....if the number of collectors expands beyond the demand for common coins....
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 Posted 07/03/2010  07:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list
SuperDave,

Again Thanks for you opinion. If I read it correctly, I not only have to pay attention to the date but more importantly when it comes to "common" Morgans the VAM also. I can see that I need to do some reading on VAM's.
Concerning the Greysheets, I always thought that alot of coin collectors see this as the "holy grail" of setting a price on a coin. I guess you have to start somewhere?
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 Posted 07/03/2010  08:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list

Quote:
Concerning the Greysheets, I always thought that alot of coin collectors see this as the "holy grail" of setting a price on a coin


Rather than a Holy Grail, look at it more like a wish list for dealers. It should have nothing whatsoever to do with what you actually pay for a coin.

"Real world" is the completed listings on ebay, or what a coin sold for on Heritage. If you want a weak 1878 7/8tf, see what previous coins of this description have sold for recently. Let things like this be your guide.
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 Posted 07/03/2010  09:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list
Thanks zeewool, I didn't know you could do that. Man I learn something new here everyday!!
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 Posted 07/03/2010  09:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zeewool to your friends list
On the heritage site, click on either 'past auctions' or 'auction archives' on the homepage. On ebay click on 'completed listings' on the left side of your screen after entering a search at the top. Forget about magazine price lists, catalog values, etc, many are way, way off. Greysheet gives prices of what 'might' be 'expected'.

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 Posted 07/03/2010  10:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
Oh, you didn't know? I'm sorry - I'd have mentioned it before had I realized. Heritage requires you to register, but it's free. You'll then have access to their auction archive, currently 1.2 million past coin auctions, most with high-resolution pictures. It is, by far, the greatest source of real-world information regarding coin pricing and TPG grading standards.
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 Posted 07/03/2010  10:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list
No problem but no, I had no idea you could go back and see what coins sold for. I am already registered at Heritage so I will go and check it out now and E-Bay too.
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 Posted 07/03/2010  11:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
Keep in mind, ebay prices can pogo-stick with not much real-world meaning. Sometimes people who have no clue bid it to the moon, and other times one slips under the radar for far less than it's worth. I take those results with a grain of salt, unless there's enough individual results to form a broader opinion.
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 Posted 07/03/2010  12:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Wornslick to your friends list
Thanks for the great info everyone.
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