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Ben Bernanke Press Conference

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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  11:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Great, hyperinflation which means a 50 trillion dollar loaf of bread, and a guy selling 300 dollar a gallon gas from a plastic jug on the side of the road.... - Silverhawk

You know... I keep hearing that word "hyperinflation" all the time but I never see a definition of it. Because of that, I have no idea what constitutes hyperinflation. Does anyone really know? Is it when prices increase by 10% per year? 20%? 50%? 100%? More? I have no clue. I do know that it can be really bad... think Weimar Republic, WW I era, or Zimbabwe, in more recent times. Their currencies were devalued right to zero. Poof! Gone! Are these hyperinflation or just the worst possible examples of it?

Just remember, folks... gold and silver are VERY unlikely to become inflated. They are true stores of value and have been recognized all around the world for thousands or years. Their success is due to the fact that no government can wave a pen and create so much as a single gram of either one... unlike fiat currencies that can be created without any limit whatsoever. The difference between gravel and gold nuggets is that nuggets are pretty and rare. As a currency becomes over-printed, it begins more and more to resemble gravel and not nuggets.

Back in the late 1950s, I was living in El Paso, TX. We often went on shopping trips into Juarez, Mexico. The shops there were selling many things, some of them quite nice, and all very well priced. The shop keepers called the US dollar "Oro". To them, it really was as good as gold. Compare that to what is going on today. I don't think that anyone is calling the dollar "gold" anymore.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  11:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
Hockingzig has it right... cheap dollars = more exports and less imports + cheap dollars with which to pay off our long-term debts at less cost to our nation but increasing costs to those from whom we import.

The fact that doing this also robs American citizens of the buying power of their savings in dollars does not seem to enter into their calculations, however, and it should... it REALLY should!
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  7:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Yeah...I don't get it. Now I'm not much of a conspiracy nut...but why does it seem like they are trying to devalue the dollar?

Because that's exactly what they're doing. A cheaper dollr encourages other countries to buy American.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
I agree short sighted policies are dangerous. I also think it is sad that 2 Australian posters (kudos to them) have a way better understanding of U.S monetary policy than do the vast majority of our own citizens! - Amida17

I'm thinking that anyone who frequents this message board will have their financial act together.

I am glad that we have some friends from Oz to give us their viewpoint. It is quite valuable to hear what others think and why they have that viewpoint. I can't think of a nicer or friendlier country that I would like to visit more than Australia.

I really like the wine they make there now, especially the Shiraz varieties.

US GIs who have been there from time to time since the WW II days always come home amazed by the openness and friendliness of the Australian people. They are, in fact, our cousins across the Pacific.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
we need some plain old flation

Eat beans.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4897 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amida17 to your friends list
But has there really been a dramatic change in the trade deficet?
And playing "devils advocate" what do we really manufacture that the rest of the world wants?
We have unfortunately, to a large extent, become a consumer society. Other than the service industry were is our economic growth?
Aren't we really in a declining economy driven by our own complacency?
I hate to be negative but my faith in our particular society is being tested.
Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  9:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list

Quote:
But has there really been a dramatic change in the trade deficet?
And playing "devils advocate" what do we really manufacture that the rest of the world wants?
We have unfortunately, to a large extent, become a consumer society. Other than the service industry were is our economic growth?
Aren't we really in a declining economy driven by our own complacency?
I hate to be negative but my faith in our particular society is being tested.


Capitalism works, however when it is corrupted and manipulated like the way our elected officials have been doing for so long....well, you probably can see what happens.

It's too bad too. Because the generation before the baby boomers was probably the greatest generation of Americans. Since then, we've been a collective failure.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  9:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Eat beans.

Indeed so, Fred... might put a dent in the energy shortage as well with all that additional "natural" gas being produced!
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  02:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list
For the first time, http://www.moneyfactory.gov printed more $100 notes than $1 notes.

What can you call an economy where the most commonly used note is a $100?
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  03:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Six months ago, the Aussie dollar would buy you 90 U.S. cents, now it buys 108 U.S. cents. The AUD has not appreciated all that much against other currencies.

If the aud has appreciated primarily against the usd, this means it's just the usd, and not the rest of the world's money, that's going to pot.

When the usd buys less au, ag, pt, aud, and everything else, then that's called inflation, buying power stolen from you by the government, just the same as if they raised taxes 20% in the six months that the aud became worth 20% more.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  03:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Because of that, I have no idea what constitutes hyperinflation. Does anyone really know?

Not really. It's sorta like art and pornography. I can't define it, but I know what it is when I see it.

Take your pick: http://www.onelook.com/?w=hyperinflation&ls=a

One definition is over 50% a month. The easiest way is to simply define it yourself for the purposes of what inflation is being examined. For example, isn't 49% a month hyperinflation?

I would think that a hyperinflation is one where society breaks down because a substantial amount of productive time is wasted calculating price changes instead of producing, shipping, etc, product. Like HI Germany, where instead of weekly paychecks, wives would get their husbands' daily pay at noon, so they could spend it before it lost most of its value by evening.

Another factor would be the concept that the inflation is out of the government's control, essentially having taken on a life of its own. Sort of like the difference between a campfire and a forest fire.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  03:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
But has there really been a dramatic change in the trade deficet?
And playing "devils advocate" what do we really manufacture that the rest of the world wants?

"Manufacture" is the wrong word, try "produce".

A lot of what the US sells is raw materials and foodstuffs. We tend to buy finished products.
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  08:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list
If the U.S. dollar decreases in value much more, the Australian economy will also come under pressure. Why?

Because the majority of Australia's export mineral contracts are written in U.S. dollars, not Australian ones. The effects of this are beginning to be expressed in the value of Australian public companies on the Australian Stock market, where stock prices are just beginning to come into downwards pressure on stock prices.

That affects most Australians, because their superannuation assets are mostly held in shares held by their superannuation Funds. We also now need the U.S. dollar to at least stabilise. I hope that happens soon, when round 2 of QE finishes, due in July.

Increasingly, Australian businesses are writing overseas trading contracts in other than U.S. dollars. I guess that U.S. businesses are quite free to do the same.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  2:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
What can you call an economy where the most commonly used note is a $100? - BiggFredd

Stretched? Over-monitized? Mismanaged? All of the above!

My question is, "How long until the $1000 bill returns?".

Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/03/2011  2:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
A lot of what the US sells is raw materials and foodstuffs. We tend to buy finished products. - BiggFredd

The US manufactures a lot of high tech equipment and quite a bit of that is exported. When I retired in 2004, the US chemical industry was the #2 exporter in dollar terms after agriculture. Not sure if that is still the case, though. Low tech stuff tends to be made where labor is cheap and then exported to 2nd and 1st world economies. Textiles are a great example. Used to be a large textile industry in the US but it has virtually all gone to Latin America, Egypt, and Asia.
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