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Ben Bernanke Press Conference

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Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Yeah...I don't get it. Now I'm not much of a conspiracy nut...but why does it seem like they are trying to devalue the dollar? - Amida17

Because they are? See Hockingzig's reply to this issue. Bernanke is driving the dollar lower in answer to China's refusal to increase the value of their currency or to allow it to float on the world currency markets. We can export a LOT more US-made products when the dollar is low than when it is high. It makes our products more affordable in more markets. It also picks the pockets of anyone who has saved dollars by reducing the purchasing power of those dollars. This is why it is wise to diversify into PMs as part of our savings. Having a portion of our wealth in something that the government can play games with can be extremely useful at times... and usually during the HARD times caused by government blunders.
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If you think the economy has recovered and unemployment is 9% and falling and inflation is 2%, then the end of QE2 is a good thing. If however you'll agree that real unemployment is in the upper teens and inflation is around 9% then no QE3 means the end of the illusion for markets. The former view controls the stock market. The latter view controls the PMs. Hence both are up on the expectation of no QE3. - Westsea

Bernanke and the Obama administration have MUCH in common with the wizard in The Wizard of Oz. They are the men behind the curtain, pulling the levers. They have monkeyed with the real numbers of inflation and unemployment to the point that their versions have no basis in reality. That anyone actually pays any attention to their blathering on these topics is probably a result from the leftist-controlled public education(?) system. Only when large numbers of the public have been sufficiently "dumbed-down" can there be people who actually swallow this nonsense and think that it is in any way related to the actual truth.
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
One of the experts debating post here said...."The reason for silver and gold going through the roof could be world hoarding", esp in third world country's and China, instead of the dollar. I say come on, the hoarding must be a factor, but the dollar going down is the number one factor IMO. Just look at the line chart from 2008, via a crossing of the lines.... - Silverhawk

Continuous deficit financing; funded by printing too many greenbacks; are the real culprits. - Peter

with both of these comments.

Hoarding does remove some PMs from the market place but if there weren't people buying metals, there would be NO market for them at all and no price on them. The fact that people are not willing to sell the PMs that they have purchased tells us that they value the PMs more than they do the few extra dollars they might collect by selling them.

Massive printing of a fiat currency is THE very best way there is to reduce its value... which is the actual goal here. This is nothing more than a thumb in the eye to the Chinese and perhaps the Indians. Creditor nations hold hundreds of billions of US dollars and they are not dumb people. They know that a declining dollar does not make a very good financial holding, so they are diversifying into other things. For the most part, that happens to be PMs and other commodities. These things are REAL and not something that governments can easily manipulate (cheapen) any time they choose to do so.
Bedrock of the Community
sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't worry too much about current Fed. policies. The current crop of them may make some mistakes in detail, but most of the important guys there got their Phd's in their student days by learning from the mistakes made pre and post Great Depression, and are asking themselves 'How can we do it better?'

This time around, there is a huge sovereign debt, but that has paid for not allowing the U.S. to slide into another great depression. The U.S.sovereign debt did increase in the early 1930's, but nothing like the increase this time around.

In 1932, 31% of the entire U.S. workforce was unemployed. I see now, eventually, there are signs that the current unemployment rate is getting smaller, and the stock market is reasonably healthy. That means that business is slowly recovering to have more money to invest the expansion of their activities again.

The recent rise in the value of commodities in U.S.dollar terms is not expressed so obviously in terms of other currencies. Six months ago, the Aussie dollar would buy you 90 U.S. cents, now it buys 108 U.S. cents. The AUD has not appreciated all that much against other currencies.

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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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yeah but how can forced devaluation help the situation if the outcome is the same? Continuation of QE2 only increases defecit spending and printing of more worthless currency. I, for the first time in my life, am honestly worried about the threat of hyperinflation. What they are calling slow growth over the last quarter more resemlbes stagflation...IMO - Amida17

I think that what we are seeing here is a debate between short and long term benefits for the US. In the short term, a cheaper dollar has the benefits of reducing the value of paying off long term debt and in making our exports less expensive so more is sold. This also makes imports more expensive, so less likely to be purchased than domestic products of the same kind. Unfortunately, this short-term thinking does not consider the damage that this does to our long-term prosperity. This is why we have a huge debt. This is why the purchasing power of the US dollar is in the toilet. The sort-term high of a lot of government spending is done time after time because no politicians want to go through the pain of the ugly withdrawal symptoms of spending less and paying down the debt. They would rather party on our dime, be famous and adulated by those receiving largess from the public treasury, and then slip away, very rich, into retirement or death later without ever having been held accountable for their reckless actions. Our shame in this matter is that we are letting them get away with it.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  10:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My favorite is when they say infaltion has not gone up, if you discount energy & food. DUH... - JackB

And just why not? I mean, it's not as if any of us actually HAS to buy food or fuel, is it?
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amida17's Avatar
United States
4897 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  11:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amida17 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree short sighted policies are dangerous. I also think it is sad that 2 Australian posters (kudos to them) have a way better understanding of U.S monetary policy than do the vast majority of our own citizens! Sorry for the run on sentence....its late...going to bed...
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  11:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

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Great, hyperinflation which means a 50 trillion dollar loaf of bread, and a guy selling 300 dollar a gallon gas from a plastic jug on the side of the road.... - Silverhawk

You know... I keep hearing that word "hyperinflation" all the time but I never see a definition of it. Because of that, I have no idea what constitutes hyperinflation. Does anyone really know? Is it when prices increase by 10% per year? 20%? 50%? 100%? More? I have no clue. I do know that it can be really bad... think Weimar Republic, WW I era, or Zimbabwe, in more recent times. Their currencies were devalued right to zero. Poof! Gone! Are these hyperinflation or just the worst possible examples of it?

Just remember, folks... gold and silver are VERY unlikely to become inflated. They are true stores of value and have been recognized all around the world for thousands or years. Their success is due to the fact that no government can wave a pen and create so much as a single gram of either one... unlike fiat currencies that can be created without any limit whatsoever. The difference between gravel and gold nuggets is that nuggets are pretty and rare. As a currency becomes over-printed, it begins more and more to resemble gravel and not nuggets.

Back in the late 1950s, I was living in El Paso, TX. We often went on shopping trips into Juarez, Mexico. The shops there were selling many things, some of them quite nice, and all very well priced. The shop keepers called the US dollar "Oro". To them, it really was as good as gold. Compare that to what is going on today. I don't think that anyone is calling the dollar "gold" anymore.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/27/2011  11:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hockingzig has it right... cheap dollars = more exports and less imports + cheap dollars with which to pay off our long-term debts at less cost to our nation but increasing costs to those from whom we import.

The fact that doing this also robs American citizens of the buying power of their savings in dollars does not seem to enter into their calculations, however, and it should... it REALLY should!
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  7:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Yeah...I don't get it. Now I'm not much of a conspiracy nut...but why does it seem like they are trying to devalue the dollar?

Because that's exactly what they're doing. A cheaper dollr encourages other countries to buy American.
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I agree short sighted policies are dangerous. I also think it is sad that 2 Australian posters (kudos to them) have a way better understanding of U.S monetary policy than do the vast majority of our own citizens! - Amida17

I'm thinking that anyone who frequents this message board will have their financial act together.

I am glad that we have some friends from Oz to give us their viewpoint. It is quite valuable to hear what others think and why they have that viewpoint. I can't think of a nicer or friendlier country that I would like to visit more than Australia.

I really like the wine they make there now, especially the Shiraz varieties.

US GIs who have been there from time to time since the WW II days always come home amazed by the openness and friendliness of the Australian people. They are, in fact, our cousins across the Pacific.
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
we need some plain old flation

Eat beans.
Pillar of the Community
amida17's Avatar
United States
4897 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  8:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amida17 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
But has there really been a dramatic change in the trade deficet?
And playing "devils advocate" what do we really manufacture that the rest of the world wants?
We have unfortunately, to a large extent, become a consumer society. Other than the service industry were is our economic growth?
Aren't we really in a declining economy driven by our own complacency?
I hate to be negative but my faith in our particular society is being tested.
Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  9:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
But has there really been a dramatic change in the trade deficet?
And playing "devils advocate" what do we really manufacture that the rest of the world wants?
We have unfortunately, to a large extent, become a consumer society. Other than the service industry were is our economic growth?
Aren't we really in a declining economy driven by our own complacency?
I hate to be negative but my faith in our particular society is being tested.


Capitalism works, however when it is corrupted and manipulated like the way our elected officials have been doing for so long....well, you probably can see what happens.

It's too bad too. Because the generation before the baby boomers was probably the greatest generation of Americans. Since then, we've been a collective failure.
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/02/2011  9:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Eat beans.

Indeed so, Fred... might put a dent in the energy shortage as well with all that additional "natural" gas being produced!
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