"Unsearched" Rolls On Ebay... Is It Fraud?

I am tempted to order a roll or two and if I suspect they are indeed searched, then I'll fight it. We need to expose these fraud auctions. I'll report my findings here if I decide to do it.

Les

Ok, time for a statistics lesson.

Just considering the 76,000 wheats (1520 rolls) which were identified as all H/T (or T/H for statistic calculations). It was suggested that they were unsearched and random. Here it goes...

The probability of any roll being H/T (or T/H) is 50% or 1/2. There are four possible outcomes: H/H, H/T, T/H and T/T, of which two of these are the desired outcome (H/T and T/H). So two of the four possible outcomes are desired, so 2/4 equals 50% chance of a roll having the desired outcome.

So if any individual roll has a 50% chance of being H/T or T/H, what is the probability of two rolls having that configuration? Well 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4, so 25% chance of two rolls being like that.

What about 4 rolls? 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 or 6.25%

You can see where this is going, the probability of 1520 rolls all having H/T or T/H configuration is 1/2 raised to the 1520 power. Or Probability = 0.5 * EXP(1520)

That answer is 2.72 x 10-458. Or 458 zeros followed by 272. I call that zero in my book and not very likely due to random chance, someone had to make them like that.

Well-reasoned stats! I'm not sure why I should believe machine-rolled cents could be all H/T.
Then again--this is just comic relief for me. There's more comedy to be found at the auction.
So, this seller found a new gimmick to an old scam, by hiring a company to roll his bulk wheats--I mean, like last week.
Then, take a look at that pile of coins--IHCs mixed with steelies? What are the statistical probabilities?

Here we go again! LOL

Another scammer with a new scam method. He bought a gross of wheats for probably 2-3 cents each and is suckering people into paying 11.4 cents each. It will never end and buyers will never learn.

They are probably search. They will give you 40's and 50's wheats and make a good profit off you.

I have bought an "unsearched" roll of nickels from an ebay seller. It was unsearched and all of the nickels were uncirculated. hence, I was quite pleased. But several factors to consider: (1) FIRST recognize the genuine wrappers, is it machine rolled, shot gun style, etc. (2) Know of the seller, is he/she reliable, how long have they had the roll(s), ask them questions, and certainly check their feed back.

Decades ago, many dealers bought many many rolls of coins (especially in the late 50s and the 60s). In some cases they sat for years in the back of the shop. Waiting for the day when such and such a coin would sky rocket in value. Sometimes the dealer just said the heck with it, and started to unload them. This happens. And you can find unsearched rolls. Again study and become familiar with the looks of old wrappers, and the methods of wrapping, this helps. However, many unscrupulous persons buy coin wrapping machines, and wrap their coins. Usually the wrappers look like the types seen often such as the red and white ones in the image above. Such wrapped coin offers, are very risky. I would avoid. Especially if the seller says no returns, or guarantees invalid if roll is opened. Avoid these.

Even worse when they stick a Merc on the end.

Sometimes the ad says "rolls unsearched pre-1940 Lincolns," which of course means someone has searched them, if for nothing else than the post-1940 ones. Or "rolls unsearched S-mint Lincolns."