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Coin Appreciation Over The Next 15-20 Years?

 
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Pillar of the Community

United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  08:38 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message


If I buy a variety of scarce classic coins now for retail prices what is a reasonable time period to expect some appreciation for these type coins? For instance if I were to buy an 1916 SLQ in VF condition what could I expect in 15 years? I would say I am a collector/investor which only means to me that I can use an extra $1000 to buy a coin or to buy dividend paying stock. I have to wait years for possible appreciation and I am willing, but to buy a coin for $1000 and see it selling for $800 in fifteen years would be discouraging. I am looking for a general answer and forecast.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2435 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  08:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Pick up a copy of "Pleasure & Profit" by Shippee. The book is about buying rare coins for profit. You can pick up a used copy on eBay for less than $7. His recommend time frame for holding a coin was 8 years before selling.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  10:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks Slider23

I am not in it just for profit but I don't want to throw $1000 at a classic coin and see it drop in retail value to $500 in ten years.
New Member
United States
9 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  10:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add punkcpa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I analyzed a similar thing. Check it out here http://goccf.com/t/290776

My collection includes a 1916 SLQ in PCGS G-4 along with a few other key/semi key coins.

Valued Member
United States
470 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  12:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Andrew289 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've tried this and made a marginal return, broke even and even lost a little. Buy the stock, no brainer.
Valued Member
United States
338 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  1:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add nutmeg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It is always a gamble. The main thing is buy what you like with money you could stand to lose. If you like the coin it is much easier to
hold on to it.
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United States
1466 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  1:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coconutjoe to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I analyzed a similar thing. Check it out here http://goccf.com/t/290776


Looks like your question is answered at the link mentioned.

http://goccf.com/t/290776
"Completed Dansco 7070 US type album. Upgrades to come"
http://goccf.com/t/325884

If you SEE a post milestone, 250, 500, 1000, 2500, 5000, 10K+, click below.
http://goccf.com/t/316031#2688706
Bedrock of the Community
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United States
12050 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  3:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Terry , you seem to be collector / investor minded . No one has a crystal ball to tell us what coins have the most potential to show a profit over time . you can probably count on very high end MS-67 to 69 classic coins without fretting that you'll lose money over the coarse 10,20,or 30 years . but not many people have those kind of assets to indulge in these monster coins right now .
Proud Member of The Black Sheep Squadron !
Pillar of the Community
United States
1250 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  4:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add chesterb to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you're picking up a classic key date coin then I don't think you'll see a drastic decrease in value but there is a hidden cost to it meaning if you buy it for retail, then it has to increase both in value and the buy/sell spread (if that made sense.)

I wouldn't count on coins to be a great investment. YMMV

Good luck.
Pillar of the Community
United States
5850 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  8:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add D0ubl3Eagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Unless you are are dealer or cherrypicking, I don't think there is a time period where you can expect to make money. Chesterb had already mentioned it but one hurdle you have clear before you make any money is the bid/ask spread. The difference between what it will cost to buy the coin and what you can receive from a dealer or auction after costs can be 10% or more. That could mean being in the hole for years before recouping your money. Stock brokerage commissions have been falling this year and the bid/ask spreads in liquid stocks/etfs are often no more than a penny wide. So when you factor in all the costs to place a trade, you are likely behind by no more than 1-2% and possibly a lot less depending on size. Advantage: stocks/etfs.

Second, coins don't produce any income during the holding period. Any appreciation that you do see will depend on what is in demand when you sell it. It is nearly impossible to forecast what will be desirable 10-20 years down the line. With stocks/etfs, you receive dividends. If the stock doesn't pay a dividend, as long as it generating a lot of cash from it's business, it will be a potential target for an acquisition or activist investors. So as long as the stock/etf is generating cash for it's investors, it will remain desirable. Advantage: stocks/etfs

Most of the coins I have are for my own enjoyment without any real expectation for appreciation though it would be nice. Money that I choose to invest has mostly gone into stocks and bonds. I will say that valuations in U.S stocks are high so returns over the next 10-15 years will probably be lower but as long as the trend is up, I will continue to buy.
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United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  10:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add terry8835 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes, I have a large position in stocks some which have high yields. I think I know that if I spend $6000 on a classic coin (1916 SLQ)I probably won't even get my $6000 back due to buy/sell spread you guys are talking about. I can buy some preferred stock and get 9% yield. This is what makes it hard to buy the coins I want because I know I get no yield on them and will be lucky to even get my money back. The most I ever spent on a coin was $1300 and I don't regret it. I have a number of sets where I am only missing the key dates. I have MS65 taste on a VF bankroll. I have gotten to where I don't want just place holders. You can always improve any set you own. I will just buy what I am comfortable with and not worry about long term appreciation. It is a vice I enjoy. Coin collecting is fun whereas investing is boring.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2031 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2017  10:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Connor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good question and responses. I have been collecting coins for around 15 years and I have seen next to zero appreciation. I am not a dealer so most coins I buy are at retail prices. My main goal when I sell is to atleast break even. No way I would put 6K in a coin this day and time and expect returns unless I just had more money than I knew what to do with and simply didn't care.

I enjoy collecting coins. I just go about it totally different these days.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
18739 Posts
 Posted 06/26/2017  08:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Being rather elderly I don't worry about what coins would be worth in 15 or more years. And since I have no one to leave it all to, I could guess most of my collection will end up in a bag to go to a bank.
just carl
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 Posted 06/26/2017  09:08 am  Show Profile   Check BigSilver's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BigSilver to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I buy and sell as fast as I can. I would not hold onto coins as an investment for the same reasons that have been shared. May work out in the long run, but too risky IMO.
BTW something many people don't realize is that assembling sets does not usually increase the value over each coins specific value
If anything, it reduces the value (unless you sell them individually, obviously).
Pillar of the Community
United States
6362 Posts
 Posted 06/26/2017  10:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TypeCoin971793 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Collecting coins strictly as investments is a very poor idea, especially top pops. A couple years ago, the forums were saying to buy key dates as they will only go up in value. Well, the value has been steadily dropping as people are beginning to realize just how overpriced they are.

If you really want to invest in coins, buy EF/AU pre-1870 type coins, particularly those with only a few years for the type (20¢, 1853 arrows and rays, Trade dollars, etc.). I have seen these rise in value surprisingly fast. You also have to pick attractive, original coins, not overgraded crap that happens to reside in a plastic tomb.

If you are unable to tell a cleaned coin from an original coin, don't even bother investing with coins. You will lose money.
Edited by TypeCoin971793
06/26/2017 10:38 am
Pillar of the Community
United States
2031 Posts
 Posted 06/26/2017  12:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Connor to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Typecoin...those are 3 very good points.
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