Ok, let's get this out of the way at the start... I am not a rich man. In fact, I live in a 30 years old rv... at least I am not homeless like so many other people, sad for me to see veterans or anybody living on the streets, homeless.
Years ago, I got an inheritance and bought 10 oz of Rhodium for about $11,500 for 10 ounces in the form of two 5 oz bars. If you know rhodium, it is about the most risky precious metal around. To quote the classics, at one point rhodium was at about $10,000 for one ounce. Then it took a 90% hit / complete freefall IN ONE DAY to about $1,000. Later, it went for even less. One did not hardly have a chance or time to sell it.
One day, you paid $10,000 for it. The next morning over your morning coffee you find that it was now worth $1,000. It is not a metal for faint hearts.
There are two types of coin gamblers:
1. one who looks at what they made upon their initial investment... they got double, triple or more than they paid for it. (door #1)
2. one who looks at what they COULD have made. (door #2)
Case in point:
I got scared during its recent soar, imagining another massive plunge and unloaded half of it / 5 oz of it for $18,000. Go to Golden Eagle... that 5 oz. rhodium bar is mine... well, the one I sold to them, it is not longer mine obviously. To get to the point, I made triple of what I paid for it... A $5,500 investment, and getting $18,000 for it later... a little more than triple the price I paid for it. This falls under #1.
This would be like getting $4,500 for a gold coin you paid $1,500 for.... just like what we've all been told what might happen to gold some day. We would like to see it, but it is likely not to happen, at least in the near future. But the problem is this... while gold prices currently and traditionally, all bets are off when it comes to rhodium. In any case, I should feel lucky.
The very next day it started to zoom up again to about a $23,000 buy-back from G.E., in just a few days, some $5,000 more, or, to put it another way, currently, about 4 times I paid for it rather than the panic 3 times I paid for it. This falls under #2.
The IRS is going to love me in any case. Regarding the past, a lot of people bought rhodium during its rise to $10,000. buying it at 5,6,7,8, 9 thousand an oz. Some people lost their shirts when they sold the same stuff for thousands of dollars less than what they paid for it.
Personally, I have usually lost when selling. Sometimes I made money. I never viewed putting money into precious metals as an investment but as insurance.
That being said, I would prefer option #2 to make up for my past losses. Currently, the buy-back has jumped way back up again to almost its recent high, to about $23,000 with a retail of about $25,000. Now, this is at about $5,000 an oz. retail... about half of its all time high of $10,000.
So, is it door #1... you unload it at its current 5k per oz, and make 4 times what you paid for it, or:
Do you sweat it out at door #2, hoping to see it go back its former glory days of 6,7, 8, 9 or even 10k per oz and possibly even more, surpassing its all time high at 10k. Some "experts" think this might happen.
So think of this as a contest of sorts... take the one bird in the hand or chance the two in the bush. sell now at 4 times you paid for it, or, sweat it out on its climb to an imaginary (for now) 10k an oz (or more), selling it at 6,7,8,9, 10k or more, knowing it may drop like a rock again lower than whale poop, to the point where you may be looking at a loss, or, at the least, another nosedive. Check out the kitco charts.
When would YOU cry uncle. Now, at door #1, or later, at door #2? When would YOU sell it. Get out now while the getting is good, or wait until the really big money price hits of the past happen again.... in other words... a sure thing (for now), or greed and possible disaster? what is YOUR breaking or panic point? Looking at it from door #2 position, I "lost" about $5,000 when I cried uncle at $18,000 to watch it go to $24,000 by the time the bar hit golden eagle or kitco.
remember, I live like the poor man that I am. I don't even own a house or anything. I am just faced with a big money opportunity or decision which may not arise for some time again.
Point be repeated... when would you personally call it quits... take a chance on some really big bucks or watch it maybe again take a major nosedive?
You know, when the rat informer yells at Tony Montana in Scarface outside the taco stand... "OK, BIG MAN, YOU WANT TO MAKE SOME BIG BUCKS, HUH? (or words kinda like that) Well, if you remember that some of Tony's friends took a big hit... their lives. But Tony not only got to keep the buy money but the "yayhoo" too.
This is one of the very few times in my life when I have such a big decision to make and I could really use your help. One bird in hand, or two in the bush? Door #1 or door #2? Prudence or greed... with greed translated to a more user friendly term like a sound financial decision. It does not work that way with rhodium, my friends.
I would appreciate your breaking point. Now, for a sure thing, or later for the possible big bucks, knowing you could crash at any time?
Door #1. It is easy to say what you should have done once you have the luxury of seeing how everything turned out. But realize there is absolutely no guarantee that rhodium ever goes goes back to its high. None. It could or it might not. Ever. There is no way for you to know.
My kid was mining bitcoins when they were $10 each. Do I wish I had bought a thousand dollars worth and then sold when they got to $20,000 each? Of course, but there was no way to know that then or when the right time to sell would have been. So you've got to let it go.
Some good advice I got once when it comes to investing: don't confuse strategy with outcome.
fist, if you check the kitco 30 and 60 day rhodium charts, you will see that the prices on both the retail and buy back has swung back and forth wildly, typical with rhodium, buy back was like $18,000 a few weeks ago, now it is over $23,000. on weekends prices close. tomorrow when the markets open it will be an entirely different story. Rhodium does not move on weekends. extrememly unpredictable stuff. it could drop like a rock or zoom up. sometimes it swings around by the hour.
For those not familiar with rhodium, if you would check the short and long range charting, it is a metal which, recently, the prices have been swinging wildly up or down, depending on the day, sometimes by the hour. Most who are familiar with Rhodium know that it at one time ran up to 10k an ounce, only to drop down to about 1k IN ABOUT ONE DAY. This is not a somewhat predictable metal like gold and silver with mild swings.
It is a metal which presently is starting to mirror its old rise up. The deal is that it could drop like a rock just like it did about 10 years ago... in one day. recently, I have seen it gain or lose hundreds per oz BY THE HOUR. It is not for those who desire a certain level of predictability, not in the least. As I have said, a few weeks ago I sold 5 oz. of rhodium, figuring that I made enough on it, plus it was starting to go sideways or even down. I got nervous and sold it at dealer buy back price of $18,000. Within a week the buy back was up to $23,000, and that is the 5 oz buy back rate, the retail was about $25,000.
We do not see that kind of volatile action with gold, silver or platinu... at least not yet. Rhodium could continue its wild rise, even back to 10k per oz or more, or it could drop LIKE A ROCK back down to practically nothing within hours. This is why I was asking the advice of this board. Also, you can see the continues back and forth on gold, silver and platinum during the weekends, but it will not show on most charts. Rhodium does not do this, once the market closes on Friday, it stays the same until Monday morning WATCH OUT! It is (usually) either look out below or radically shoots up or it may take a few hours or a day to figure out what to do with itself.
It is driven by mine strikes, imaginary or real, rumours, speculation, opinion pieces, real or fantasy world predictions or actual usages,people who yell "fire" in theaters. Think of the old days when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market on silver, driving it up to $50 an oz. before they got caught. Well, rhodium pricing is influence by about that multiplied by a dozen or so other conditions.
Why do you think that palladium, which could be bought for very little just a short time ago, basically leads the pack now? catalytic converters speculations and usage usually. Palladium is still much cheaper than Rhodium... for now. Why do you think that platinum, used in catalytic converters as well, used to lead the pack, is so undervalued right now? (that will change).
This is why I advise those not familiar with Rhodium to check the charts, the last 30, 60 and 1 year charts will tell you all you need to know. People are scared stiff with Rhodium and they cannot be blamed, but they will either lose their shirts or gain a fortune within a very short time frame in comparison with the other metals.
For a specific example, Kitco offered about $19,375 buy back price on 9/11/19. Just 2 hours later, it was $21,125. Two days later, on 9/13/29, it was up to $23,125 (for 5 ounces buyback prices). Translate that to about $900 an ounce in 2 days. Where else in the PM market do you see that kind of action or swings? If you found your $1,500 an oz. gold was now worth $2,400 or $600 an oz. spot price in 2 days you would think the world had gone mad.
And this is during the time of somewhat of a basic or level or calm / normal world situation. A war, economic collapse, or some other crazy world event and brother, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Of course, it all comes down to know when to sell... which you won't even hardly a clue about. Many who bought rhodium on its way up to 10k had their coffee the very next day and saw that they lost about 90% and never even the chance to sell it before it bottomed out. DANGEROUS STUFF!
thanks beem, already did that by selling half and problably will put it in platinum. however, I scared myself into selling the 1st bar, "lost" $5 within a week (depends on how you look at it) and am not willing to make the same mistake twice with the other bar. Rhodium is currently at about $5k, which is about half of its record high, and, for today, is on a slight downward trend, which means nothing. Somebody already bought my old 5 oz bar at about $25,000 at the retail price, I hope they know what they are doing. In any case, I already sold half and am eyeing a gold piece or problably a platinum coin, I cannot tell you enough about how undervalued it is right now IMO. I am betting that rhodium will c climb again radically, which it did last week after a dramatic drop. the stuff is dynamite. yes, I am willing to entertain that it may drop down to $600 an oz. (vs. the just-under $5,000 it is now), but I am willing to take that gamble. thank you for your opinion... mike
Thanks Sel, appreciate the advice. The only thing that I keep trying to impress upon people is that Rhodium is about as similar to traditional pm's to a grapefruit as compared to an elephant. The "standard practice" you mentioned, of which I have also gone by, really does not apply because things change so much with rhodium, I would be doing little besides running back and forth to the bank. As an example, within the last few hours alone, the buyback from golden eagle has changed 3 times this am... $22,175 at first, then $21,875 on the last slight dip, then up to $22,375. And this all happened while on my first two cups of coffee. Even my favorite pgm channel, which I use mostly changed from $5,000 per oz to $4,900. Rhodium is at war with itself. Personally, by looking at the tea leaves, Rhodium is going to jump up once it runs past the $5,000 resistance level, much more likely to start seeing a major and rapid climb up. forget the mild traditional with changes with the other pm's of 1-4% hourly change levels, it is either going to drop like a stone, which I now see as unlikely, or it will, as it just did, go down to a small correction level and cautiously go back up. Caution, imo, is about to be scattered to the winds and we will see that $5,000 an oz. zoom up to least $6,000 to 8-10+k and it is going to happen within the next 24-72 hours. But, of course, I could be completely wrong... not the first time it has happened, but I already got one burnt hand to learn by and would like to avoid learning again, if possible. But, realistically, this stuff is unpredictable to say the least.
thanks winerfell, you are not alone, and except for those who are willing to take a big risk, which is definitely NOT recommended. it is best NOT to know or care anything about Rhodium. That being said, it looks like that my personal tea leaves, for now, have been correct. 9.20.19, update, Rhodium has broken through the resistance and, I emphasize, FOR NOW, THIS VERY HOUR (in another hour everything could change, my favorite and secret pgm chart has rhodium up $500 an ounce, to $5,400, since yesterday. with a 5 oz buyback high up to $24,375 from $21,875 from its lowest price yesterday. This stuff is on fire FOR NOW and the for the first time in 10 years it has gone to war with itself instead of just small increases since then. It will now either continue to explode upwards or drop like a stone at any moment. A look at the rhodium charts on Kitco will tell you what is going on. A wise person would take your advice. There is something about the old saying "taking the one bird in your hand vs. two in the bush. This is such a time to seriously consider that and my personal recommendation is to sell it at these prices while one can. It will fall off the cliff at any time now, or it will continue its blazingly fast rise upwards and then flame out down to amuch lower position. The last thing I would buy now is rhodium, but there are others like me who are willing to ride the lightning back towards its old $10,000 or more an oz level but I will personally chicken out way before that. It is now at what I refer to as the "greed" position... It's not about what one has already made (door #1), but what would COULD make (door #2)... and I would be the first to say that this is a most risky, unwise position.
Up another #100 per ounce since 3 days ago, pgm increased from $5,400 to $5,500 with a 5 oz. buyback now $25,125 from $24,625 on 9.20.2019. I feel a disturbance in the force. Kitco, for the first time O have seen, has not updated the Rhodium prices percentage wise, in fact, abandoned it altogether, leaving it in the black (no updates, good or bad), so I am chickening out with door #1 with the 1 bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush way of thinking. Then I am not going to ever look at Rhodium ever again. So goodbye to this thread and thanks to all for their comments... mike