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As Silver Prices Continue To Climb...

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 Posted 07/26/2020  8:16 pm Show Profile   Check farrider11's eBay Listings Bookmark this topic Add farrider11 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Do you think that a lot of circulated (Bad Shape) Morgans, Peace dollars and the like that have been floating around forever will end up getting melted down if the the scrap prices get high enough?

It would skew some population numbers.

At the rate the US keeps printing money, I can see scrap prices continue to move upward.

*** Moved by Staff to a more appropriate forum. ***
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 Posted 07/26/2020  9:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mtuma3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In the late 70's the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market and it was up to almost $49 an ounce.
In 2011 is hit $35 an ounce.
I would think back in the 70's would have been the great melt of coins, but it didn't happen then, and I really don't see it happening now.
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 Posted 07/26/2020  9:16 pm  Show Profile   Check farrider11's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add farrider11 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My only thought is we were not running the deficit we have today, along with the virus and a lot of folks out of work.
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 Posted 07/26/2020  9:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I occasionally talk to coin shop owners and at least one of them is sending all of their cull silver dollars and lower end junk silver to the refinery. They say that the amount of people buying at these now higher prices has stalled and they need to keep their inventory moving.
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 Posted 07/26/2020  9:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No.
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 Posted 07/26/2020  9:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Melting Silver, Gold, etc. has been going on for a long time so why should it be different now.
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 Posted 07/26/2020  10:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


I would assume the coins that will be melted are the ones with the lowest premium. I doubt those would be silver dollars, but maybe someone else here has light to shed on that (i.e. data).
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 Posted 07/26/2020  10:36 pm  Show Profile   Check farrider11's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add farrider11 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm just watching the auctions on those tricked out lighting/weird angles to try and make a coin seem like they are in better condition then they are, and before covid and the rising price of silver, I saw bids and sales, as each week goes by I'm seeing less and less bidding on those to the point that unless they start with a 99 cent start, there has been a significant drop on bidding.

I understand those are not hard facts and are just a subjective view of one person's glancing auctions, but sooner or later those coins are going to go somewhere if they are not selling.

Of course it could be people are just getting smarter and or don't have the same discretionary spending, but I wouldn't place my bets there
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Edited by farrider11
07/26/2020 10:43 pm
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 Posted 07/27/2020  08:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Of course it could be people ... don't have the same discretionary spending,


As of late June there were 10.1 million more unemployed Americans than three months earlier (BLS monthly employment report).
The percentage of households that can't make their monthly housing payments has been rising https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-...ayments.html
So I think it makes sense that the current economic situation is decreasing demand (numbers of bidders), which I expect will make the premium over melt smaller.

Whether that means more coins are sent to the smelter ...
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 Posted 07/27/2020  08:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A little bit off subject but I hope the mods will pass it through . Lets just say Silver were to hit an astronomical price of $100 an ounce , Do you believe your semi key and better date silver coins would go up in price to a Numismatic ally higher collector value . ( hope I put that across the right way ).
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 Posted 07/27/2020  08:58 am  Show Profile   Check farrider11's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add farrider11 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In the late 70's the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market and it was up to almost $49 an ounce.
In 2011 is hit $35 an ounce.
I would think back in the 70's would have been the great melt of coins, but it didn't happen then, and I really don't see it happening now.


Here is an article which addresses some of what you said.

Specifically
Quote:
That puts the March to July 2020 performance in the "top 4% of all four-month gains over the last half-century," he told MarketWatch. Even so, silver has outpaced this current surge many times — in 1974, 1979, 1982, 1987, 2010 and 2011


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...h-2020-07-13

As of this morning it is up another $1.39 to $24.10

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Edited by farrider11
07/27/2020 09:01 am
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 Posted 07/27/2020  09:58 am  Show Profile   Check nss-52's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add nss-52 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Lets just say Silver were to hit an astronomical price of $100 an ounce , Do you believe your semi key and better date silver coins would go up in price to a Numismatic ally higher collector value


No. It merely raises the minimum price for any coin, regardless of grade.
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 Posted 07/27/2020  3:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have seen increasing bullion prices erode the difference between bullion and collectable coins before, and am seeing it again T-BOP.

I remember when an AU 1891-CC eagle was $350 at $200 melt. When melt went up the differential went down for a while, then caught up. For the past year there have been lots of collectable gold bargains, which are now priced under current scrap. Coin dealers change old pricing slower than the bullion markets move. High melt also brings some better coins to market out of collections, which dealers price to sell quickly.

With $10 Indians there used to be a substantial differential, but that went away and never returned.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
07/27/2020 3:11 pm
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 Posted 07/27/2020  7:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add glenmorenee to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I would guess that there is always a modest stream of melting that really accelerates when prices jump.

I would guess LCS don't do a whole lot of melting unless what they have is really awful and basically unsalable.  But for the most part they seem able to command and get substantial premiums to spot so no need to melt.
 
I would guess that the "Cash for Gold" people do a LOT of melting.  I think this is their business model.  They probably have a well organized melt arrangement.  Pay substantially less than spot to the uninformed public, cherry pick coins or jewelry to resell marked back up to retail and then immediately melt the rest to lock in their profit.

As to population, the best condition rare date coin populations are probably pretty well known and are not likely to change much.  As a recent study by PCGS pointed out, true rare date coins have performed remarkably well while generic graded coins (the ones you see by the box full at coin shows) have actually gone down in value.
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 Posted 07/27/2020  8:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Back around 2010 when I was doing a lot of silver mining (rolls) and lots of road trips 10-15 banks per day, I found that the cash for gold places weren't interested in selling to the public.
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 Posted 07/27/2020  10:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Arkie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I would guess LCS don't do a whole lot of melting unless what they have is really awful and basically unsalable


Talking with my LCS last week, they were approached as to whether they had any St. Gaudens. Just culls was the answer. He got $300 over spot for culls.
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