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Thinking Out Loud About Trends Listings In CCN

 
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Author Previous TopicReplies: 9 / Views: 896Next Topic  
Pillar of the Community
Canada
814 Posts
 Posted 06/20/2022  05:50 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I use a half dozen or so sources of information when trying to figure out whether a price for a coin is worth it. First and foremost is how much I want the coin - I think that has to be #1. But following close behind are some less sentimental calculations. How rare? How many exist at this grade? Previous sale prices? And so on.

The Trends is probably the most elastic of them all. My basic approach is that for anything that is on the more common end, I try never to pay more than about 60% of what's listed there. As the grade and rarity of the coin goes up (and with it my interest) that percentage creeps up. For coins that are at the highest end of desirability - defined by indicators such as the PCGS POP survey and related indices - I will sometimes pay full Trend or even more.

I'm not whether that's totally rational but, for what it's worth, it's how a fair bit of my calculation works.

I'm curious to know whether this resonates for other collectors?

Valued Member
Canada
123 Posts
 Posted 06/20/2022  3:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Levaril to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My approach is similar to yours. First I decide how much I want the coin. If I want it a lot then I'll work through the rest. If not then I move on.

A lot of what I am buying is not showing on CCN, but some is. If it's on CCN I don't typically expect to get it at 60% though. You can get lucky and get it there, or even less, but typically I expect more in the 70-80% range, unless the coin is particularly ugly and depending on rarity. I also check a variety of auction sites for comps, along with PCGS and maybe NGC. CaC can be a useful resource, although depending on the item it can be way, way off base on prices, particularly for rare or top pop kind of things. Virtually none of them have good info on coins with HC or UHC, so there can be more guesswork there, but you can assume it will be a lot more expensive if it has UHC/DCAM/Ultra Cameo. Very rare or top pop coins often exceed trends, sometimes by a lot, so be prepared for that. If they start getting really expensive though the customer base shrinks a lot and sometimes you can pick up something at a reasonable price if you are lucky.

Probably the best advice I could give anyone is patience. Admittedly not something I am good at myself! Eventually almost anything will come up for sale somewhere if you wait patiently. It's definitely a good idea to have a firm top price in mind going into an auction though and do your best to stick with it.
Pillar of the Community
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Canada
4350 Posts
 Posted 06/20/2022  5:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add okiecoiner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think that one source that should be included for any price guesstimate is the Ebay "sold" section. I have little faith in the CaC prices and Trends gets too much input from dealers who have input into the pricing.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
814 Posts
 Posted 06/20/2022  6:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Okiecoiner - agreed. And along the same lines, my take on the C&C listings is that their "sold for" pages are far more accurate and predictive than their up-front price listings.
Valued Member
Canada
123 Posts
 Posted 06/21/2022  4:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Levaril to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think that one source that should be included for any price guesstimate is the Ebay "sold" section.


Yes this is included in my "variety of auction sites" comment, but candidly if the items you tend to buy are relatively hard to find then ebay is pretty limited. If you are buying something more common though it definitely has it's place.

For anything even remotely difficult to find pricing is often more guesswork than knowledge I find. Sometimes it just comes down to, "How much is it worth to you?" People sometimes pay outrageous prices for something that perfectly fits their needs. To anyone else it may seem crazy, but if they got what they want and they are happy then good for them. I've done a purchase or two like that myself.
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Canada
10189 Posts
 Posted 06/21/2022  6:05 pm  Show Profile   Check SPP-Ottawa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SPP-Ottawa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
People sometimes pay outrageous prices for something that perfectly fits their needs. To anyone else it may seem crazy, but if they got what they want and they are happy then good for them. I've done a purchase or two like that myself.


- especially for top PCGS Registry Set material.
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert Oppenheimer

Content of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_US

My eBay store
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1886 Posts
 Posted 06/22/2022  11:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add papeldog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with most comments when looking and a purchase of a coin if its a coin you been looking for 1st I look at how rare it is or uncommon it is to find, the condition, then price I want to pay for it. I have payed over trends several times for coins that don't show up much in the market that often or high grade coins that come up seldom for sale.
Happy Hunting
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2653 Posts
 Posted 06/23/2022  09:36 am  Show Profile   Check Wade's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Wade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Numista has included a "value" column that is updated by the user base.
As more and more of that feature gets used jt could be a decent source of information.
Coin Collecting... "I'm in it for the money"
New Member
United States
8 Posts
 Posted 06/25/2022  6:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LandonM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Unless the coin has uniquely desirable properties or there's an unusual market velocity in its niche (which is very possible these days), eBay and Heritage are pretty much the only benchmarks I'm interested in.

We live in an era of global, universally accessible marketplaces with prices settled publicly and in real time. The idea that we still derive price by polling clerics making anecdotal reports of 'secret transactions' is... a bit 'off', to put it mildly.

Find me someone willing to pay more than ebay, buy from ebay and sell them all they can handle.
Find me someone willing to sell for meaningfully less than ebay, I'll buy their inventory and resell it on ebay myself.
That settles the argument.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
814 Posts
 Posted 06/26/2022  2:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@LandonM - there isn't really an argument here. I was just curious how people think about trends.
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