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 Replies: 14 / Views: 1,164 |
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Valued Member
United States
106 Posts |
prices are falling, gold down almost $100, whats going on?
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Moderator
United States
44301 Posts |
It goes up and it goes down. Supply and demand.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
531 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2344 Posts |
China and other countries are buying gold (electronically) by the ton - literally. World markets are going crazy. Also, the prices have turned into a buy market rather quickly.
Historically though, the gold and silver markets have dropped around this time of year until about the end of April into May. According to the futures market, they should start to increase again about June.
That said, now and in March should prove to be the time to buy accordingly.
Oh and the USD is showing some improvement. Hence, another reason for the drop in the metals markets. Perhaps briefly.
Edited by dsking
02/16/2023 8:33 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
953 Posts |
Like stocks, silver and gold prices can be volatile. Gold was only briefly up about $100 and has gone back down to early last month levels. Spot prices are partly determined by supply demand. But they are also manipulated by the big banks using derivatives, shorts, longs, etc. I don't understand it much but they trade paper contracts without using physical silver and gold. J P Morgan was fined last year $920 million dollars and several of their traders were convicted of manipulating the metals markets.
Compared to bigger swings in the stock markets, silver and gold spot prices have fluctuated only about 4% to 7% in the last year. Long term over decades, it's been a gradual up trend but with roller coaster ups/downs.
I've heard the major banks and some nations have been buying gold at near record levels. Some say they are concerned about a recession, world debt and the US dollar being devalued due to inflation, etc.
Those who stack silver and/or gold watch the spot prices and try to buy the dips.
Edited by livingwater
02/16/2023 7:48 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
95 Posts |
I have heard the same stories that "livingwater" said about central banks buying. I have also read about the shrinking "actual" supplies available for sale at the LME.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2344 Posts |
FYI: Notable "central banks": The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand.
This is not unusual in the World metals markets, which our market follows as well. As you probably know, the LME follows the London Fix Price as determined by the following banks: Scotia-Mocatta, Barclays Capital, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Bank and the Société Générale Bank.
The decrease in supply does often happen this time of year. Buying into the metals markets are a hedge to fight inflation. This could be seen as a good thing to strengthen the banks reserves.
It's frustrating to have been a Business Major with an Economics Minor. Ugh! It gets confusing!
Edited by dsking
02/16/2023 8:49 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2785 Posts |
My fault, I was getting ready to sell some gold and silver. Sorry.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5411 Posts |
Look at Palladium  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10120 Posts |
Right now inflation is a problem and The Fed is being forced to raise rates. Data this week was not good for metals (i.e. inflation remaining elevated). The Fed will continue raising rates, USD strengthens, metals go down. Much is anticipation of what the markets think will happen later this year. Paper metals like SLV and GLD drive spot price, down in this case.
Patience is your friend.
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Valued Member
United States
133 Posts |
Lately gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have almost a to the day a perfect anti-correlation.
Looking at DXY in Feb 2022, it was 96 and on its way to a peak of 114 on 9/26/2022, coincident with the recent low in gold at 1620. Dollar strength = gold weakness. DXY finally topped out at 112 on 11/3/2022 coincident with the final recent low of gold at 1620 again, Nov 4, 2022. DXY then dropped all the way down to 101 on Feb 1, 2023. Gold rallied and went to 1960 peaking just the other day on Feb 1, 2023. The weakness in gold is just a reflection of the dollar bounce back to 104+. DXY does look higher though so maybe more gold weakness ahead.
Check out the one year chart of DXY at Marketwatch.com.
Edited by glenmorenee
02/16/2023 10:57 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
4646 Posts |
A little amount of precious metal in a portfolio is a good
thing say 5 to 10 per cent of a portfolio .
The rest should be in solid dividend stocks and
some in bonds .
Looks like rates are going to stay on the high side for
awhile . I for one would like to get paid rather than sit on
lots of Gold or Silver both of which pay no interest and it
costs money to store them safely .
I am willing to bet for the remainder of this inflation cycle
both will trade even lower than at present .
Also quite possible that the Coin Market is about to take a breather as well .
That said I will just sit back and keep collecting dividend and interest income .
Edited by Pacificoin
02/16/2023 11:00 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
66 Posts |
That sounds like good advice I'm with you I mite stack a little more silver lol
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2773 Posts |
When I used to travel, I heard the phrase
"Colombia is always safe, but it never is."
I've seen the same thing with metals
"Prices fall because they do."
Take your buying opportunities when you can. Regarding collectible coins Pacificcoin, I have been watching the online inventories of high priced US rare coins climb dramatically over the past year, while their affordable low grade counterparts have almost disappeared (and when they appear, are priced 2-3x higher than they were a year ago). Case in point: how many AU-UNC 1891-CC eagles does a person need? Sellers are not running museums for us to gawk at, but I don't think prices will be dropping anytime soon. I have shifted over to other coin categories that I've neglected.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
02/17/2023 09:00 am
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Valued Member
United States
187 Posts |
Quote:
So we can buy the dip 
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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,164 |
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Posted 02/16/2023 11:17 am
