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 Replies: 15 / Views: 1,626 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
Maybe I should call it the silver dance instead of flux. I know there are tons of way to try and figure out the silver market. There are certainly far more experts making comments on the silver market that know far more than I do. But take a look at what I call the silver dance over the past 60 days. Do you notice how it dances in the same relative area then makes a move. Heck we are in a new world so why not try to look at things a little more simple. It doesn't mean much unless silver moves one way or the other. But if it follows a new pattern then it should take a large jump ether up or down since it has been dancing for awhile. Hey what do I know but it is a different way to look at things.  Edited by mkfarm
10/24/2011 12:39 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
667 Posts |
Here is a look at gold, never thought to look at it the same way.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7840 Posts |
No wonder I can't sell my "junk silver" for the given price...it keeps going down...no (serious) offers this last time around.
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Valued Member
United States
421 Posts |
Hey oih82w8, I hear you about trying to sell junk silver. I show up at the local shop with a better date slq and they offer me a lowball price, then I call them out that mine is better than the one in the case that they have at $19.95 so they up it to $7.50. I said I will pass. Sometimes you can do better on e-bay.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
Junk Silver - I never pay spot period. In fact if it isn't at least 10% below I walk. Why? Because unlike the ASE or Silver Maple junk coins do not carry a premium. Too many people want spot and there is a market for those just not with me. With that said to get spot then you are better off selling to an individual. It isn't going to happen with a dealer, shop etc. Better date junk silver. Again your best market is with individuals. Unless it is a super great key date I can't be bothered and you can thank me for making the market better since most of mine go to melt. My success has been in bullion where the buying has been cheap and the selling has been faster and more profitable. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
I opened this thread thinking we were talking about soldering.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
But take a look at what I call the silver dance over the past 60 days. Do you notice how it dances in the same relative area then makes a move. Yes, I have noticed that and find it similar to a lot of other investments, not just PMs. Many things trade in a narrow range for a while before making a strong move up or down. This is likely due to the flow of info about that particular investment and the market in general. Quote:
Heck we are in a new world so why not try to look at things a little more simple. We absolutely are in a different world and it happens each and every day! For the most part, the changes from day to day are small enough that we see some continuity from one to the next. These days? Nope, lots of volatility in the markets these days as people hunt for direction. As to looking at things in a more simple way, heh, good luck with that. The world is getting more and more complex and not a bit simpler. Sometimes a simple way of looking at things is useful in terms of the general tread but it can also jump up and bite you in the rear end. Just about the time you think that you have it figured out, something comes flying in from left field that proves that you don't!  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1150 Posts |
Me, too. I thought someone was using silver as flux when soldering. Must be the plumber in me. I'm not a plumber, though. I'm a coin collector. Anyway...
Why would anyone pay a premium for a bullion coin? It is bullion! I don't pay a premium for ASEs. I don't pay a premium for junk, either. But I know people pay a premium on both at any given time. So again, the old saying stands; Something is worth ONLY what someone is willing to pay for it.
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
One thing most people do not realize is that when you buy U.S. junk silver is that you are not getting the full value because of wear and tear on the coins. Because of that I never pay over spot, and never that when I can get it lower.
Stopped at another pawnshop today. He had an estimated $200 face in junk silver. Spot price was 23 times face. His price was 26 times face with no discount for quantity, even if I bought them all. If he would have come down I would have bought $50 or maybe $100 face. And that is after I watched him buy $200 and change worth of junk silver at 16 times face.
His reason? Because people were buying at his price and taking them to the local mall and selling them. Market area of the mall is about 40,000 people in a radius of 25 miles. But if that market is so good, why did he have $200 face on hand for sale?
If he had sold me a quantity of silver at a lower price he would still have had plenty for the mall market. Plus, he would have made a decent profit for the time involved. And he would have had a cash flow.
Since I believe time is money, any time that I can sell in bulk, I am very amendable to selling at a discount. And any real businessman that understands the costs of business would do the same thing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
Maybe he doesn't need the cash flow and has time on his side. If I could make ten percent more by waiting a few days I would do it. I see this as a seller's market. If silver hits $25 an ounce just see if he has any junk for sale. Nope. He knows it will be back to $30 soon enough, so it is pulled from the counter. Just because you offer to buy doesn't mean the seller is going to accept your terms.
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Valued Member
United States
458 Posts |
Yeah I would have waited for someone to come through the door offering 26 times.
Chances are he knew people were coming. Otherwise he would have sold to you in a heartbeat.
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Valued Member
United States
493 Posts |
Unless you know a dealer, I have yet to find one that will sell anywhere close to spot. The last one, changed his price on a set I was looking at, increased the price while I was talking to him about it! It's pretty sad that buying online is cheaper than buying local. I guess, the name of the game is just dealing with people who are willing to over pay, and sellers who are willing to take 5 bucks under spot.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
Yes I know it was a very simple, non-certified look. But the dance happened and I took a chance and bought during the very low cycle.
The silver and gold did the move right when they should have. I just didn't know which way ti would go. Call it very stupid luck that it moved at all but what the heck I took a chance.
Edited by mkfarm
10/25/2011 6:39 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
One thing most people do not realize is that when you buy U.S. junk silver is that you are not getting the full value because of wear and tear on the coins. I've heard people say this any number of times but have yet to hear any of them offer any data that supports this contention. Realistically, coins are pretty darned hard and tough. My guess is that they do wear but extremely slowly in terms of any actual mgs. of metal lost to wear. If so, then a coin would have to be extremely worn before any perceptible quantity of metal was actually lost. It would be good to have someone actually weigh several hundred coins in various states of wear to see if there was any metal loss and, if so, how much. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
Ed, I don't have the # of coins and don't want to do the weighting. However, recently, I've bought a roll of (40x coins) Barber quarter that was sitting in a regular plastic tube that hold a roll of quarter and it look like the Barber quarter roll was short by 5 coins and the evidence of wear are there, some are getting close to look like a slug (no rim). Keep in mind that these silver coins are in the range of 100 yrs old and I expect it to have been circulated for at least 50yrs before being saved. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
According to your numbers, that would represent a wear factor of about 12%... 5 coins out of 40. That seems hugely excessive, IMHO. When I still worked for a living, I had four Mettler high precision analytical balances in my lab. Two of them could weigh items to three decimal places and two could weigh to four decimal places, all in grams. This is the kind of weighing capability that would be necessary for any study of coin wear and any loss of metal value therefrom. Most of us are not set up to do this kind of testing but people who buy and sell gold and silver for a living might be. I was hoping to find one of them and interest them in doing this. They could make a You Tube video of their testing and results. Might be pretty interesting to most coin and bullion collectors.
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Replies: 15 / Views: 1,626 |
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Posted 10/24/2011 1:44 pm
