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Slabbed Coins

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jaycutler's Avatar
United States
118 Posts
 Posted 11/06/2011  10:53 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add jaycutler to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
My question is about population census of coins! With so many people break them out how accurate can they be?
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yankee1227's Avatar
United States
1151 Posts
 Posted 11/06/2011  11:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yankee1227 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
They can't be that accurate but I do know of some people that do when they break them out, they send in the labels.
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hesgut's Avatar
1028 Posts
 Posted 11/06/2011  4:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hesgut to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
They are not accurate at all for any coin where there are significant price differences between individual grades, especially at the high end. There are some rare proof and circulation issues where the certified populations exceed the total mintage....and that's knowing that only a fraction of that total mintage was even sent in.

Some big time dealers that are sending in massive amounts of coins and thus get huge discounts and free submissions etc. are driving this. If they have a certified coin that is worth, say, 10,000 currently, but goes up to 30,000 one grade higher, I've known of situations where one coin has been sent in over 20 times.
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jaycutler's Avatar
United States
118 Posts
 Posted 11/09/2011  08:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jaycutler to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So based on what your telling me what's the point of population reports if its not even close to accurate?
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hesgut's Avatar
1028 Posts
 Posted 11/10/2011  01:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hesgut to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
jaycutler;

The population reports are a lot like Jay Cutler. They are actually pretty good and useful in theory, but the numbers become bad and useless because TPG management doesn't address the resubmitting problem and because the those dealers associated with resubmissions make them ineffective. The analogy is TPG management is the Bears management not addressing the O-line for several drafts and the greedy dealers are the rest of the Bears offense just making Cutler look ineffective.
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BuffalosRock's Avatar
United States
500 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2011  3:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BuffalosRock to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I do know of some people that do when they break them out, they send in the labels.


Pardon my ignorant question, but why in heck would someone go to the expense of sending the label into the TPG after breaking a coin out of a slab? So they can decrement their count by one? How does that REALLY help the sender? I guess its only the cost of en envelope and stamp, but it seems rather fruitless.

Heck, I'm saving mine on those I've cracked out for albums. If I ever go to sell some down the road, I can show that they were once graded - I know it'd be my word that the coin matches the label - but any reasonably-savvy grader should be able to know it likely matches based on eyeballing it. I see this done on ebay and think it effective personally!

I thought that most re-submissions leave the coin in the slab. The idea that if it does not get a BETTER grade then it isn't re-slabbed, and thus not counted AGAIN either way. If you crack it and send it in 20 times, it could be downgraded and never reach back to its original grade. So even if the cost is marginal ( reduced to s&h ), the risk of losing value has to be present. Obviously anyone with any stake in TPG-ing HOPES that it comes back the exact same grade 20/20 times though - in this case. But I guess it only takes ONCE, being upgraded, to score a big boost in value.
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hesgut's Avatar
1028 Posts
 Posted 11/11/2011  4:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hesgut to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If you crack it and send it in 20 times, it could be downgraded and never reach back to its original grade. So even if the cost is marginal ( reduced to s&h ), the risk of losing value has to be present. Obviously anyone with any stake in TPG-ing HOPES that it comes back the exact same grade 20/20 times though - in this case. But I guess it only takes ONCE, being upgraded, to score a big boost in value.


I think what most don't realize is that TPGs don't spend that much time on your coins. They will give it a thorough review to be sure, especially if its difficult, rare, or strange, but if a dealer has a coin he knows is worth money he'll study that thing till no end. The dealer will be sure it's not gonna come back lower (and even if it did, just resubmit) and continue to gamble to get it higher.

The example I gave of over 20 submissions for the same coin was several years ago with a dealer I knew. I can't for the life of me remember what coin it was, but I wanna say it was a Morgan. It was one of those examples where he got a slab with the second highest grade ever graded and he really wanted the highest. He submitted it something like 22 times to NGC and PCGS over a long period of time. He finally got the higher grade, which had only a several like examples and made like a 20,000 profit. I also think he may have single handily lowered the value of the second highest grade with his submissions.
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