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 Replies: 38 / Views: 3,462 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Well, I have been saying for weeks we will see another pullback in G & S in the last couple of weeks or so of this year. Mainly based on wise poster's from this forum's past experiences, being in the PM game way longer than myself. I figure history is not always going to repeat to exactly what it did in the past as all moments in time are not unlike a fingerprint in my estimation, but no doubt we have covered this in the past, definite predictable trends/cycles can be found in the charts....
So a certain snake oil salesmen who's name I will not advertise that preys on the fear of the public, who claims amazing predictions in the past, may have been right about this particular pullback, but so what as most the wise here was as well. When you are guessing on a coin flip, you do indeed always have a 50/50 chance of winning....
Any thoughts on how low it will go, as it looks on first inspection Gold has had a major pull back to 1660 or so, and silver has lost perhaps a 1.50 falling to around 31 dollars an oz? Edited by Silverhawk74
12/12/2011 1:07 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5853 Posts |
It's really hard to say, in my opinion. Silver and Gold have both pulled back down sharply several times over the last few months, only to bounce back up a bit, and then fall back down again, etc. Today I watched silver drop more than $1 and wondered whether this was finally "the big one," but now it seems to be heading back upwards again.
Personally, I'm not really interested in buying straight bullion or "junk silver" and I've noticed that prices on the "good stuff" (BU and AU coins) doesn't seem to follow the spot market. Even if silver suddenly dropped to $25, I suspect it would need to stay there awhile for prices on the stuff I want to buy to drop significantly.
Anyway, if you're looking for predictions, I'll stick my neck out and predict that silver will stay between $31-33 until the end of the year. It might drop a bit below $31 or go a bit above $33, but that seems to be its stable range right now.
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Valued Member
United States
53 Posts |
The overall correction continues to happen.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
buying opportunity or wait even longer
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
Now that the support levels for the last several weeks have been broken to the downside, I look for more near term weakness in the markets, probably through the end of the year.
Prices? 1600 gold for sure, 1550 maybe, but not likely to go lower and before Christmas. Assuming silver follows gold, 26 or 27 for silver before Christmas.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Merlin, stop that! You're making me drool!  lol One thing that really struck me today was that gold moved down by $50 very quickly but then seemed to stabilize and only change by relatively small increments for the rest of the day. Not that I was glued to the TV today but that is what it seemed to be doing while I was watching. Anyway, that seemed to indicate some strength to me; otherwise it might have continued to move lower as stocks moved lower. Silver also went down early but then seemed to stabilize and come back up a bit. In both cases, it looked like buyers coming in to support the price near the 1st drop price level. I would like to buy some gold, so if gold were to pull back below $1600, I would probably pull the trigger on some 1/4 oz. AGEs. The Austrian Philharmonics are a little cheaper but those AGEs sure do look sweet. Another possibility would be some of those 1-oz. mixed bars that Provident sells. Gold is gold, IMO, so I would not be too concerned about who made it. Most of the bars out there are from reputable and widely recognized mints. They seem to be quite a bit cheaper per oz. than the gold coins. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2589 Posts |
The pullback is due mainly to individuals selling off metals to spend on the holiday season. The same thing happens with stocks, ect. When people need more money than they usually do they sell off assests to cover the additional expense.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3670 Posts |
"Merlin, stop that! You're making me drool! lol"
What, the thought of 1550 gold or 26 dollar an oz. silver, lol....
"The pullback is due mainly to individuals selling off metals to spend on the holiday season. The same thing happens with stocks, ect. When people need more money than they usually do they sell off assets to cover the additional expense."
I can save had have did that myself, and I figure that theory is right on the money....
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Valued Member
United States
362 Posts |
Every month seems to have periods where there is a sharp decline, or sharp incline... it cant be helped, lol. Its going to drop a fair amount at some point, just as it will go back up at some point :P
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5853 Posts |
My wife agreed that if silver really were to drop down to $25-27 I should go on a buying spree (I'm thinking maybe a bag of 100 Morgan dollars in AU-BU condition). So now I'm drooling as well. Sadly, prices seem to be heading back upwards yet again... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5853 Posts |
And now they're dropping again...
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
Quote:
Sadly, prices seem to be heading back upwards yet again... Quote:
And now they're dropping again... Patience. They are always too high or too low depending on who is looking at them. Prices rarely ever go in a straight line. Just watch the trends. Then pick what YOU BELIEVE is the best time. No one can ever pick the absolute bottom or top except by accident. Most of the time you will be ok. But sometimes you will be wrong. Work the averages and over time you will always win. Edited by mmerlinn
12/13/2011 2:01 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
The down swing seems to be in full affect, even though silver is holding its ground in the mid 30 an some change range, and gold is down big again today to 1630....
For those who have the large money needed to make a sound investment, I HIGHLY recommend getting into gold if it falls down to mid 1500's or dare I say 1500 even or so....
Silver, I wish it would pull back to 25 or so and I would make something happen, lol....
That 30 dollar Mendoza line seems to be a real barrier for silver....
Edited by Silverhawk74
12/13/2011 4:45 pm
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Valued Member
United States
362 Posts |
I think if gold hits 1500$ an ounce I think I am gonna go for some IAU stock in my Ira. I recently purchased my first gauden double eagle and I love this coin, but I do realize how hard this will be to sell for a profit. Especially with ebay, after fees and PayPal fees its going to be 11.9% worth of fee's! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5853 Posts |
I bought my Saint-Gaudens purely for my collection (despite what I told my wife). If I decided to buy gold purely as an investment, I'd probably buy whatever bar or round had the lowest premium over melt.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
What, the thought of 1550 gold or 26 dollar an oz. silver, lol.... Oh, yeah! Cheaper PMs float my boat!  Quote:My wife agreed that if silver really were to drop down to $25-27 I should go on a buying spree (I'm thinking maybe a bag of 100 Morgan dollars in AU-BU condition). So now I'm drooling as well. Oh, man! Even just the thought of that kind of addition to the silver collection makes me giddy with anticipation. If you manage to acquire that bag of Morgans, PICS WILL BE REQUIRED!  Quote:
Prices rarely ever go in a straight line. Just watch the trends. Then pick what YOU BELIEVE is the best time. No one can ever pick the absolute bottom or top except by accident. Most of the time you will be ok. But sometimes you will be wrong. Work the averages and over time you will always win. Exactly right, Merlin. This is why a lot of us just buy a little on a regular basis. If prices take a dive then we can ramp up our buying. If not then just stick with the program of building a nice stack over time.  Quote:
I bought my Saint-Gaudens purely for my collection (despite what I told my wife).
Good thing she doesn't read this forum. Heh heh...  Quote:
If I decided to buy gold purely as an investment, I'd probably buy whatever bar or round had the lowest premium over melt. Yes, that approach looks good to me too. Provident Metals has 1-oz. mixed manufacturer gold bars for $16 over spot. Now THAT is getting with the program. That $80-100 per oz. over spot for gold coins doesn't do much for me. Some of the platinum coins are even worse in that regard. Quote:
Any thoughts on how low it will go, as it looks on first inspection Gold has had a major pull back to 1660 or so, and silver has lost perhaps a 1.50 falling to around 31 dollars an oz? Impossible to say, Hawk, as there are so many factors that bear on this question. A lot of it is political and you know how on again / off again that has been lately. There does seem to be very strong resistance in the $30-31 / oz. price range. I suppose that it could dip below that but if it did it would likely be a very quick dip that doesn't stick around for very long. Catching that with a buy order would be quite a stroke of luck. |
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Replies: 38 / Views: 3,462 |
Posted 12/12/2011 3:30 pm
