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Die Fatigue An Indicator Of 1918/7-D Buffalo Population?

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Pillar of the Community
weerdsteev's Avatar
United States
1291 Posts
 Posted 01/18/2012  1:36 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add weerdsteev to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I often wonder how many 1918/7-D overdate Buffalo nickels were minted. I know that there are no mintage figures on this and generally most other mint errors, but does anyone recollect any "intelligent guess" theories being ventured on how many there might be? I don't have my reference materials handy as I write this, but I think overall mintage figures for the 18-D was either 7.8 or 8.7 million, and the overdate is a subset of that figure. On a post from back in November 2011, forum member Danester posted this great photo of what looks to me to be an UNC overdate:

Die-Fatigue-An-Indicator-Of-1918/7-D-Buffalo-Population?

In his post, Danester pointed out that the coin was from a "later stage die" and that it had a lot of "die fatigue". The three questions that occur to me are:

Is die fatigue a kissin' cousin of "flow lines"?
How many nickels can one die generally knock out before it becomes too "fatigued" to continue?
How many dies were used that had the 8/7 in them?

It seems like if you knew the answers, or were able to make informed guesses, about those last two questions you might have a good feel for how many of these things might have been punched out.

The thing that got me thinking about this subject (again) was that I restored a dateless nickel last night and it turned out to be an overdate. (Yay!) I've stopped keeping track of how many of these I've uncovered, but it's something north of 30, I'm sure of it. That, in itself, tells me there had to be quite a few of these, after all, I'm just ONE guy. This particular nickel, however, was the first one I ever uncovered that had what I considered to be "flow lines" on it -- by the chin - (thus my flow line vs. die fatigue question, above) and that's what makes me think there might have actually been quite a few of these.

Thoughts?
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CaptainFwiffo's Avatar
United States
4132 Posts
 Posted 01/18/2012  2:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CaptainFwiffo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Two famous rarities of this era in other denominations - 1916-D dimes and 1909-S VDB cents - were minted from just four dies, with mintages of 264,000 and 484,000 respectively. That's an average die life of 66k and 121k strikes per die, but both of those runs were suddenly interrupted; those numbers are probably on the low end for die life for that era. I've heard 200k thrown around as typical, and it seems to vary a lot from year to year and mint to mint (San Francisco, for instance, seemed to use their dime dies for much longer).

Nickel is harder than silver, so I guess the dies would wear out somewhat faster. Flow lines are part of die fatigue, but so is that crack. That die looks to me like it could have easily struck 100k coins already. I've seen other examples that show heavy flow lines, and most of them seem to have that big crack, so I don't think that die got retired particularly early. I don't recall seeing a '16-D dime looking that way, for instance.

I haven't cherry-picked one yet myself. :(
Edited by CaptainFwiffo
01/18/2012 2:02 pm
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