Long Term Value Of RCM Coins

Although there are notable exceptions, most RCM NCLT issues tend to go down in value from their issue price.
I've been collecting Canadian coins for decades and have watched the prices of the classic coinage (pre-1968) go up over the years, while the value of most of the NCLT has not.
I wish I had a crystal ball that would predict coin prices though - it sure would come in mighty handy!

Well thats a little discouraging but I can see with so many releases that most will trend down. But how about the ones that are big hits? Again I'll bring up the ladybug for lack of a better example. Will that not be able to maintain some value ten years from now? I mean it is in demand now so why not down the road? I guess I'm trying to justify feeding my collecting habit as a form of investment instead of just spending hoping that a coin collection will have some value beyond melt.

I agree with CC-Ottawa, the RCM non-circulating legal tender (NCLT) explosion is more of a 2000s phenomena than a 1990s or 1980s event. The last decade or so has witnessed the biggest increase in the number of total issues along with the number of denominations used for NCLTs. The increase in the number of "special effects" coins (i.e., colorized, added crystals, holograms, etc.) has also been dramatic over the past decade -- a boon for some collectors, a bane for traditionalists!

I believe that in addition to too many issues, one thing that is impacting the long-term value of most RCM NCLT coins is the fact that, with few exceptions, there doesn't seem to be much consistency regarding the releases within each denomination. As many collectors still like to collect a series with a common thread, the somewhat haphazard approach to coin issues employed by the RCM is troubling (to this collector) and can be counterproductive for long-lasting market value.

Just look at the 50-cent series for example. There are silver coins, base metal coins, silver-plated coins and even gold coins! There are traditional finish coins, plus colourized coins, selectively gold-plated coins and lenticular "motion" coins. There are even triangular coins! Themes include wild and domestic animals, flowers, WWII, dinosaurs, Santa and milk delivery (among others). Some coins are targeted for collectors of all ages, while others seem to be geared specifically toward young collectors. All in all, there is no consistency in theme, size, shape, metallic composition or purchase price across the denomination. This RCM approach is not limited to just its 50-cent pieces.

I believe this approach pushes collectors away from collecting a complete series and toward a ‘pick-and-choose' model for which "complete" has no universal meaning. When the goal of a group of collectors is not to collect an example of each type (or date) of a particular series, competition for the limited mintage pieces is often less intense and so prices do not rise as much or as quickly -- they are also less likely to maintain higher levels. Also, the attractiveness of today's popular themes can wane fairly quickly among collectors and the market value of the coins will fall along with the interest -- hot today, cold tomorrow.

I wonder about the long-term potential of novelty coins such as the 2011 Ladybug coin. I'm betting they will not maintain their current market levels (which are already down a bit from last year) over the long-term. There are many on-line auction site sellers listing the coin for roughly $300 (or more). But I looked at the selling prices of recent auctions that "Sold" -- 15 sold for less than $265 (8 of those for less than $240) and just four closed at $300 or above. I'm guessing the "Ladybug market" has peaked. But, if the RCM makes it an annual, limited edition -- who knows?!

My only advice, pick a NCLT series or individual coins that interest you and that you can enjoy over the long term. If the value of your collection goes up over time, great! If not, at least you experienced the joy of ownership. If long-term return on investment is your goal, I would look toward the truly scarce and rare coins of the circulation issues (especially of the 1967 and before silver era) rather than trying to pick the winners of the modern NCLTs.

(All that said, I collect the modern silver commemorative dollars and believe that several of the limited mintage, Special Edition coins do have a reasonable chance of maintaining higher-than-issue-price market values over time due to the fact that many collectors pursue the annual silver dollars as a series vs. just picking select issues and need to complete their sets.)

I don't think buying NCLT is a good investment. RCM charged too much premium and the market is small. I bought the entire collection in the image(except 20 for 20) below issue price, I paid $12 for one of the flowers.

that's why I'm not eager to buy NCLT coins from RCM, seems I can always get better price if I wait a little longer. I found some bullion coin has better chance in the long run, especially those with low mintage like britannia, kooks etc.

This is interesting. I guess NCLTs are relatively new to the game so time will tell. I certainly wasn't looking to NCLTs as an investment, but I was hoping that they would at least hold on to most of its value on resale - i.e. the difference between tying up hundreds of dollars to enjoy my collection vs. blowing hundreds of dollars.

Fortunately I was inspired by poboxw's silver 1oz collection early on so, I have been buying more silver coins than NCLTs. Still with premiums but not nearly as steep as RCM.

I guess I'll focus more on collections like Silverbug's. Value NCLTs.

As an aside, is there something significant about 2007? I've been finding that the 2007 releases for different sets tend to be more rare/expensive even if its a later year of the set?

Great discussion....great posts. As I am sure many here, I collect many coins, maybe too many, the NCLT's I started to collect are generally first of's etc. One thing that bothers me though, when you start to collect something, for example, I started to collect the Snowflakes because of the crystals and their beauty. Then I figured, well, why not collect all the coins with crystals, because at the time, they were limited. Then, bam...they exploded, every third coin, started to have a crystal embedded in it.....now I realize unless I win a lottery, I won't be able to complete that part of my collection. Just look at the birthstone series! Like commems says pertaining to the 50 cent coins, they just keep on going once they have a good thing, and don't know when to stop. At least I would have enjoyed collecting and their beauty if they don't appreciate. It's a hobby that is up and down, and I too, hope silver hits the 100 dollar range in the next 10-20 years.

I think NCLT appreciation depends largely on initial interest and low mintage; but there are other factors that are nearly as important. On the other hand, I've never bought a coin from the RCM or Perth, two of my favorite mints, because I get them cheaper on ebay nearly every time. And if the handful of coins that I want, like the ladybug, go higher than the mint release, I just take it in stride since there are so many options. I guess I'm far more bullish on NCLTs than most of you, but as I mentioned, only the coins that sell out quickly and have low mintage. Also someone mentioned getting series firsts; that seems like a winning proposition to me, as they tend to hold their value better than subsequent releases. Most of the coins in my collection are worth more than double what I paid on average, due to the fact that I was buying NCLTs when spot silver was in the single digits and the teens. If the stories are true, there are also more people pouring into the NCLT market than ever before, with most of the new breed coming from the BRIC countries. But if silver ever explodes, all the NCLTs will be buoyed to new heights by record breaking spot prices. But I totally agree with the member who said that one should buy what one likes, not simply as a potential investment that might never pan out.

commems,

I found three $20 ladybug coins going right now for over $400 on ebay auctions. It doesn't look like it's declining from the prices I saw a couple of months ago when I tried unsuccessfully to buy one for $200+. Wish they were.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/20-Tulip-La...em41651fdd2b
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-Canada...em35bb8c0a69
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-CANADA...em4d008bdea1