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 Replies: 15 / Views: 2,720 |
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New Member
Germany
6 Posts |
Hello everyone!
I'm new to the forum but I am interested in coins as an investment. Currently I am bidding on a silver 2000 Dragon Coin (2 ounces) from the lunar series, which seems to be a beautiful piece of investment as a lot of bidders try to take it from me :)
Currently the bid reached approx. 150 euro. I set 200 as a current maximum bid for the coin.
How high would you actually value this coin and why?
Thx to everyone and cheers!
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
 mate, My 2011 maccas says $110 AUD which is about 90€ but I wouldnt be suprised if the catalogue is way out because I know these are very popular |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
Ive just done a completed items ebay search and found two previously sold. Both were around $200 AUD which is about 160€ |
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New Member
 Germany
6 Posts |
Thanks for the welcome, mate :)
so I see, that lunar coins are much cheaper in australia than in Europe?
would it make sense to order them from australia and sell here? ;)
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
I think this is one case where the catalogue is way out. If you want it 200€ seems to be an ok price. I have looked at ebay international and found a few more which sold. Most for a bit below $200 (US I suppose). I do not know much about these coins. There is many others who stack silver who can answer much better than i. |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
552 Posts |
The 2000 lunar series have gained popularity due to success of the 2012 dragon coin series. Since ebay records dont do back that far it is hard to gauge price a few months ago If you had the data for over a year ago then you would see this coin barely reached catalog price Hard to say if dragon series will keep value or whether it is a passing fad I would preceed with caution becuase you may end up losing money PS: Welcome to fourm |
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New Member
Germany
6 Posts |
@mrcruise: hmm, really? this coin is denoted as "rare", so I thought scarcity of a good always lets demand for it grow and thereby the price goes up. wrong logic here?
PS: Thanks :)
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
762 Posts |
Quote:
this coin is denoted as "rare", so I thought scarcity of a good always lets demand for it grow and thereby the price goes up. wrong logic here? Thats only half the story. It's all about supply and demand. It doesn't matter how rare a coin is, if there is no demand for it then it is not valuable. |
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New Member
Germany
6 Posts |
sounds logical :)
how can I perform a "demand analysis" in the numismatic market?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
Get old catalogues (although like mine they may be wrong) study the internet sites. ebay and online dealers will give you a reasonable idea of what things are going for. |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
552 Posts |
An excel spreadhseet will help One Column = Issue Price (or average proce being sold for) Next Column = sale price eg on ebay (average these out) 3rd column = work out 2nd coumn as percentage of 1st colunm Keep a track of this over a few weeks and the numbers will tell you if good buy or not I would consider anything above 30% worthwhile Anything over 100% jump on it Be weary of initial surges which means you need to buy and sell quick Hope this helps |
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New Member
Germany
6 Posts |
@mrcruise: I don't really get it... if an item is about to be sold for 30% of the average price - go for it and take it, sounds logical. But anything which is more expensive than the average price - ? what is the point here?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
A few weeks aint gonna be long enough to tell how much a coin is appreciating.
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New Member
Germany
6 Posts |
@enworb: what would be your suggestion? how long must an analysis be in order to deliver reasonable results?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
4411 Posts |
I am no expert. A thing to remember is that past performances are not necessarily an indication of future trends. Any investing has risks. Most of these Perth Mint lunar things seem to appreciate quite well. In regards to how lWow the longer the better. The first few weeks after it sells out at the mint it may appreciate a huge amount but then slow right down. What I would do if I was investing rather than collecting would be to collect data for a whole month and then use it to get an average price. Then the following month I would do the same and so on. After a year you would have 12 points you could plot and see if there is an overall trend. Problem is in that year you may have missed out on the rise in price. I suppose this would work better with predecimals where there is more data. Slightly unrelated but still relevant: I have catalogue from around 1990 which lists the captain cook 1970 50c at approx $10. Now 20 years on the catalogue value is the same. If you had of purchased one back then you would actually have lost money that you could have earned with inflation. This seems to happen quite a bit with mint products. The way I see investing is its gambling. |
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New Member
United States
23 Posts |
I started out collecting with a 2000 1oz silver dragon proof coin. It cost me $42. And that was like 8 years ago. I gradually increase buying all the 2000 silver dragon. Now I see on ebay, where it's selling my first coin for $500's. This is a better investment than stocks. If I sell it at that price, I gain nearly 1100%...try that with stocks. |
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Replies: 15 / Views: 2,720 |
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Posted 03/15/2012 05:02 am
