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 Replies: 19 / Views: 3,075 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
I looked up the current ratio for junk silver (pre '65 90% silver coins) and it's 23:1 with silver at $31.66 per ounce. I've been tracking lowest ebay sale prices on uncirculated mint sets from 1959 through 1964 and they are ranging from $41 to $48 (including shipping) for both mint sets for a particular year. The face value of 90% silver coins in both sets is $1.70. At 23:1, the junk silver value of the silver coins alone is $39.10. That's not much of a premium for the uncirculated nature of the coins. If I expect silver to drop back down to $15 per ounce in a few years, can I expect to see those mint sets sell for as low as $20 to $25 for both P&D of each year? *** Moved by Staff to a more appropriate forum. *** |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1116 Posts |
I personally don't think that the US mint will be selling its sets for lower until they've resisted way to long. Sure they have lowered the price of their silver but silver had to drop significantly before they'd do it. I know this is not silver, but look at the clad 3 piece ATB Quarters from 2011. The mint is still selling them for much more that the current 3 piece sets. The reduced them from $14.95 to $9.95. The 5oz silver ATB pieces from from $279.95 ($55.99/oz) to $229.95 ($45.99/oz) to $204.95 ($40.99/oz). Based upon the current cost of silver, I'm halfway expecting the mint to increase the cost of this product before doing anymore reductions. Just MO. There's slightly over an ounce of silver in the silver proof quarter sets and they are selling for over $40 an ounce today. It would be nice to see the price drop to 23:1 but silver has to drop way more for the mint prices to get to those levels and when it does IMO the premiums will increase on all coin store purchases. But it would be nice to dream of those days. |
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Rest in Peace
 United States
1380 Posts |
Ok, that was a question and answer that passed in the night without ever seeing each other.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
593 Posts |
Quote:
Ok, that was a question and answer that passed in the night without ever seeing each other. You got that right! Was my question obtuse? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
759 Posts |
I actually think you would, but I'm thinking $15 silver is a long shot. For items like those, I think the percentage spread between melt and completed sales decreases as the price of silver goes up. In other words, there's not a high nominal dollar component of the price that is related to the numismatic value and condition.
You'll find the same thing applies to some proof sets as well. There was a time I was thinking about trading some common silver proof sets for 90% junk. Then I found out a proof set with $0.85 of silver was going for about the same price as $0.90-$1.10 of junk silver and in the proofs, there is no weight loss. So it boils down to this...some mint issued silver sets are only ever worth a few bucks more than melt.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
Quote:
I actually think you would, but I'm thinking $15 silver is a long shot. For items like those, I think the percentage spread between melt and completed sales decreases as the price of silver goes up. In other words, there's not a high nominal dollar component of the price that is related to the numismatic value and condition. Obviously any prediction of future precious metal prices is a guess, but I was really quite surprised at how little numismatic value there was in those sets. Thanks for the reply! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
508 Posts |
Larsdog,
I have recommended late 1950s or early 1960s proof sets to collectors to fill holes in their type sets. I have recommended this since the price of silver was in the $4-6 range.
The premium over spot price has always been minimal.
Basically you pay for the silver coins and get the base-metal coins for free.
Of course, if you were to buy a $1000 bag of silver coins, many of them would be 'uncirculated' or even proof coins of this time frame. They were hoarded in large amounts.
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Valued Member
United States
404 Posts |
If silver falls to $15, I would guess the price on the mint sets would come down, but not by the same rate. You'll get a lot of people who think silver HAS to go back up in value so they'll overpay just to get in. I don't get that logic though, silver has to double in value for you to make a 10-20% markup.
Silver @ $31.66 and sets are selling for $40-45 each...
Silver @ $15? I would guess they'll get around $30-35 each
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Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts |
if silver falls that much I will be a major buyer. other countries will end up buying all of our available PMs if that is the case and teh price will end up sky rocketing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
Thanks for sharing your opinions. Good food for thought!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
Silver just dropped through $30.
Anyone smell BEAR yet?!?
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Moderator
 United States
189142 Posts |
I just moved this topic to the 'Precious Metals & Bullion - Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum' forum.
I think it could benefit from the input of the regulars.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
That's fine if you think this is where it belongs. My point is about the relatively low markup for 90% silver sets (pre-65 U.S.) and how mint sets are selling for little more that their junk silver value so the numismatic value of the sets themselves seems low. Anyone interested in those sets would want to watch the bullion markets to time a purchase, but the markets themselves weren't the focus of the topic.
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Moderator
United States
189142 Posts |
Gotcha.  It can go either way. I was hoping some of the bullion regulars might have an opinion. But I can move it back if you prefer or if the conversation stagnates. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
larsdog, In 2008-2009, I saw the US Mint sets selling in the low $20's on ebay auctions. Silver was $9-13 at the time. I don't remember the dates of all of them but it seemed to be across the spectrum. Plenty of sellers, also. Some people might have thought about waiting it out but after 6-12 months of falling prices, most seemed to change their tune. Hope that helps. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
jbuck,
Here is fine. I'm not picky.
traevin,
Thanks for the info. Let's assume $11 per ounce. That would be an 8:1 junk silver ratio. With a face value of $1.70, that's $13.60 for the junk silver alone and $6.40+ for the numismatic value. You can get P&D sets for 1968, 1969, etc. for $10 or less, so you would expect 1964 to go for at least $10 even if silver was free. It sounds like my original estimate was reasonably close. I should be able to pick up '59 through '64 for about half of what they are going for now IF (and that's a BIG if) silver tanks to $15 an ounce. It sure has been heading south lately and it "feels" like the precious metals crash of 1980-81. The historical price chart also look eerily familiar!
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Replies: 19 / Views: 3,075 |
Posted 04/21/2012 6:39 pm
