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Sources Of Pm Knowledge.

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Author Previous TopicReplies: 11 / Views: 1,240Next Topic  
Valued Member
silverdollar2011's Avatar
United States
385 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  2:04 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add silverdollar2011 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Last year, I bought a book called "Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver" by Mike Maloney and am also aware of another similar book that is written by Robert Kiyosaki. Not to be rude or anything, but my knowledge of the correlations between the price of PMs and inflation has been the same, as I keep reading the same theories over and over in this forum. Perhaps, are we all fooled by the Great Maloney and Kiyosaki? I know I was for purchasing a Sunshine Minting bar for a whopping $62 in April of last year. As of now, I really like Gold. It is very stable and seem to be able to acquire much value if inflation hits.
Silver is done.
What do you guys think? any opinions would be much appreciated.
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allranger's Avatar
United States
1391 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  2:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add allranger to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There is a lot of "common" or "received" ideas that are part of our culture/sub-culture that we inheret with out question. The answer is probably more that Maloney and Kiyosaki are repeating advice that is part of this assumed knowledge that we share, and modifying it slightly with their own spin.
This happens all the time. How many Tolkien-esk books are there? Thousands? How many action movies have bullet-time as part of the action scene?
The behavior is self reinforcing also. Tolkien wrote great books, this book reminds me of it so it is probably good too. The Matrix was a good movie with awsome fight scenes, this movie does similar things so I should probably check it out.
They are as probably "dooped" as much as they are "dooping." That is in quotes because I have not read their books and know nothing of the authors so I am not able to say one way or another. Perhaps if you explained why you think we are being fooled with a brief synopsis for those of us who haven't read the books?
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Namachieli's Avatar
United States
2120 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  4:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Namachieli to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One thing that works well for me, to keep me strait;

I have my opinions and the way I lean on issues such as these. (I'm very bullish) To keep me from blindly following that prospect, every month or so I spend some time, and try to change my own mind and find evidence to support the contrary.

There are always people with opinions in every direction with information with biased context.

It's like writing a good essay. Find evidence that supports your view, but find opinions or evidence that may be contrary. Consider both sides and try to disprove on of them.

Never blindly accept one way of thinking with out challenging it constantly.
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coinwatch's Avatar
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  8:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Great subject, OP. Lots of old and new economic pundits out there have jumped on the PM bandwagon. And instead of original research, it seems we sometimes get nothing more than popular and optimistic visions of vast PM gains while, perhaps, the unpleasant subjects of market volatility and price manipulation get short shrift. These pundits are just selling an opinion...one opinion out of many. I don't see any duping or deception in this. What I do see, however, are people trying to sell books and seminars. And there's nothing wrong with that. However, personally, I place far greater value in the informed opinions of my fellow investors/stackers/collectors than I do in some of these *experts.*

With this in mind, gold and silver both have their well publicized problems: gold's not viable because there's simply not enough ounces on the planet; silver's an industrial metal so the price will collapse with the economy; gold and silver will be worthless since we'll be trading in bullets, people are too far removed from gold and silver to understand how a real money economy could possibly work. Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. The lesson? Do your own research and follow what makes sense.

@Namachieli - Totally agree. A sound personal economic plan should hold up to scrutiny and challenge from contrarian positions. It's not easy for anyone to challenge deeply held convictions. I suspect your policy will serve you well in the future.



Edited by coinwatch
07/12/2012 8:13 pm
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traevin's Avatar
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  8:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The lesson? Do your own research and follow what makes sense.


CW beat me to the punch. I've read far too many bullish books, blogs, and newsletters written by people who sound more like carny barkers then true metals analysts to take any of them strictly at face value.

The real question is, why are you buying PMs? Then realize that there are big risks involved if your answer is for future gains. Nothing is guaranteed, regardless of what some potentially self-serving PM author would have you believe. To truly make money in PMs, a lot of research into trends and potential pitfalls is a must.

If it were easy to make money buying and selling PMs, everyone would be doing it.
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silvercoinrn's Avatar
United States
863 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  8:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silvercoinrn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
IM gonna own silver anyway. my guess is that one gay in my lifetime it will bhigh again like last year and at that time I will hopefully be smart enough to sell and make a profit. if not oh well. my kids will inherit old junk silver coins
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Libertad's Avatar
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  10:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@coinwatch: Bullets will never become currency for the following reasons: There are too many calibers and not everyone has a gun for each caliber. A single bullet is pretty worthless because you need to fill up a magazine for it to be effective. They are heavy. There are differing types and brands of bullets from quality to the amount of gunpowder used to shape of the bullet to the dirtiness of the cartridge; there is no standard except the caliber. It's hazardous to pay someone in bullets unless you trust that person with your life. They get spent/consumed. All that said they can be traded and bartered for, but they cannot be a viable standard currency since we're talking about money.

Even if we were to become "totally" digital, what will we be buying with that digital cash, other digital services and products? No. There will always be a physical object to seek, otherwise we would not exist in the material world. Gold will always be worth something to somebody, especially those who understand its true value as a recyclable commodity that is very rarely consumed.
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coinwatch's Avatar
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  10:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Libertad - I wasn't endorsing any of the frequently sited "negatives" to buying gold and silver. Rather, I was just demonstrating that there were literally countless opinions floating around the Interwebs, TV, and other media. However, since you brought it up, I personally agree with your assessment that bullets would make poor barter material due to the reasons you mentioned.

Regarding digital currency, I do believe that even if the Fed manages to salvage this mess of a economy monetary policy by returning to some sort of hybrid commodity-based standard, the convenience of digital transactions will continue to exist for as long as enough people and businesses accept those transactions. In that case, you'd simply spend your most specious "money" first: digital dollars, then physical fiat, then lastly, gold and silver and other barterable commodities. And yes, we completely agree that gold will always be worth something to someone.
Edited by coinwatch
07/12/2012 10:59 pm
Valued Member
United States
90 Posts
 Posted 07/12/2012  11:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ant024 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anyone follow David Morgan ?
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coinwatch's Avatar
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 07/13/2012  01:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I must admit, in the past I've enjoyed reading Robert Kiyosaki.

These days, I give bright folks like Hugh Hendry and Kyle Bass more of my attention.
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Namachieli's Avatar
United States
2120 Posts
 Posted 07/13/2012  11:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Namachieli to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Honestly, I know we can't return to a "gold standard" of sorts. It's just too far gone.

But we could make it be more of a 'GDP standard'.

Only problem is GDP is ever changing, so when it goes up, 'print money', when it goes down, 'wait till it goes up and print more money'.

We do need something physically tied to it though. However I do not have a solid answer.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 07/13/2012  7:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Nothing is guaranteed...

Here we have one of THE universal truths behind the human condition. No matter what anyone says, this is far more likely to be true than not.

I buy and hold silver bullion in spite of people like Robert Kiyosaki. I have watched this guy for many years and my opinion is that he is a huckster and a flim-flam man. Yes, he has made a lot of money over the years and he has used the P.T. Barnum method for doing it.


Quote:
We do need something physically tied to it though. However I do not have a solid answer.

I agree with that. One of the better suggestions I have seen is to create a new currency that is tied to a basket of several different commodities, part of which is gold and silver. This could also include oil, wheat, rice, etc. At first, such a currency would likely be a new world reserve currency that was used primarily for settling international purchases. At some point, it would likely become regional and eventually national. As with many other questions of this kind, though, "when" seems to be the big issue.


Quote:
Bullets will never become currency for the following reasons...

Actually, the lowly .22 long rifle caliber and the 12-gauge shotgun shell are nearly ubiquitous, so would make good trade goods. As you say, they are expended and need to be replaced. Both make good small to medium game getters. .22 shells are cheap, so it is possible to stock a lot of them for a little money. Same with fish hooks, needles, and matches. These things are very useful yet difficult to make ourselves. This is the thing about trade goods. Individuals may not want any goods that we have to trade. They likely will be interested in specific items, which is why having a trade currency, such as silver could work really well. If you don't have any goods that I want but you do have silver, I will trade you my fish hooks and matches for silver that I then use to buy a pair of boots from the shoemaker. He uses the silver to buy food for his family, etc. There is quite a lot of skill involved in successful bartering and perhaps some personal risk as well. Neither of these will prevent people from trading goods and services, however.



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