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 Replies: 13 / Views: 1,569 |
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New Member
United States
45 Posts |
I really like the classic commemorative series and actually put together the beginnings of a nice set, however when I see price history of Mint State Commemorative Halves it seems as though their value has steadily declined over the last decade or so. Why do you think that is? People are loosing interest? or is it because population of graded examples have increased? And do you think values will continue to decline?
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
My guess is that the U.S. Mint like most other mints around the World, is isssuing huge amounts of modern NCLT. All of these new products are competing, and sometimes out competing, for the attention of the new collector. The other main competitor against classic commemorative demand is the huge increase in PM collectors / hoarders, where the product they buy are very coin like, and are often the same as an NCLT product. ASE's are a good example. |
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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
 United States
12271 Posts |
There isn't any single cause of the value decline you've referenced, but here are a few things to consider: - Interest in the classic commemorative series most definitely has its "up" and "down" cycles (as do almost all US coin series). We have been in a "down" cycle for a number of years though there is some recent evidence that suggests the "down" has bottomed out.
- Other series have enjoyed more promotion in the recent past and thus have captured the attention of more collectors. The numbers of available coins of each type of the classic commemorative series do not lend themselves to heavy promotion in the same way that Morgan dollars, Walking Liberty half-dollars or Washington quarters do. Coinciding with the launch of the Statehood Quarters program, for example, much promotion was directed at getting collectors to pursue the older, silver Washington quarter series. This is an area that saw value growth over the period you referenced.
- The number of collectors pursuing the classic commemorative series is low compared to most other US coin series. The nature of "commemorative" coins vs. "circulating" coins keeps many folks away -- for many, they are not "regular" coins. With a limited collector base to begin with, a relatively small drop in the number of collectors working on the series can noticeably alter the supply-demand balance in favor of supply which causes prices to maintain levels or drop. The recent economic situation in the US is one cause of the current drop in the number of commemorative collectors.
- The majority of today's silver classic commemorative collectors are pursuing Type Sets vs. Complete 144-piece sets (a shift from the past when prices were far lower across the board). Also, many collectors choose to fill their type sets with the more common example of each type and thus do not compete for the scarcer coins of a type. For example, the majority of collectors will use the more common 1922 Grant-Plain variety to fill their "Grant hole" rather than the scarcer (more expensive) Grant-Star variety. This limits supply pressure on the scarcer pieces of the series and thus limits their value appreciation.
- The rise of online auction sites for coins has created a different buyer today vs. the past. Online sites have made most coins of the commemorative series readily available on any given day -- in a sense, more of a "commodity" than in the past. As such, many of today's buyers use online outlets to search for the "best price" vs. the "best quality." This puts pressure on dealers/sellers to keep prices low to remain competitive in order to generate sales. I will say, however, that coins of true quality do not suffer from this commodity mindset.
Those are just a few factors (IMHO) for the value doldrums the commemorative series has recently experienced. I have recently given a talk on this topic and am preparing a post for CCF on it as well. I do think values will rebound from present levels (though likely never to the levels of 1989-90) though it will be a slow rebound until the economy once again returns to full speed. The series needs more collectors to drive value appreciation and until folks have more disposable income, a big increase in collectors is unlikely. Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Lets also not forget everything is pretty much in a down series right now with the terrible economy.
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Valued Member
Canada
220 Posts |
I've always been fascinated by the classic commemoratives, but price has been the one issue that has kept me away from most of them in previous years. Over the last 2 years however, the slump in prices has allowed me to add substantially to my collection! :-)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
36744 Posts |
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Moderator
United States
15420 Posts |
While the general market for these coins in average MS state may be depressed ... the truly premium coins out there in any MS grade continue to demand prices well above the norm. This should be a great time travis2005 to focus on building your set of these fabulous coins.  David Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art |
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Valued Member
United States
54 Posts |
I've started building a classic commem set... but, I just want one of each type (for now). Been able to grab a lot of them raw. Do you guys think it better to grade them? or only grade the big ones (Hudson, Spanish Trail, HI, etc)? For grade AU and Better.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Home its all what you prefer. The graded ones are easier to sell and have added protection when buying. I like graded myself for those reasons and for protecting the coin as well while still being able to handle it.
Even if you like raw coins better I would suggest making any of the big purchases with a graded one and then break it out just to make sure the coin is real
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Valued Member
United States
54 Posts |
Thanks Baseball. Oh, also. Is there a book/website on grading classic commems similar to a regular grading book that goes through each of the coins? Haven't been in collecting long enough to distinguish between AU and MS, and then MS61->
I can tell if the coin has significant wear, but haven't seen enough of them to tell AU+. They all have different wear marks, high points, etc.
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New Member
 United States
45 Posts |
Thanks all for your insight. Its hard to tell if the market is at its true bottom and I suppose we will never be able to predict the future. I would hate to continue my collection only to find out that we are only half way in the decline. COMMEMS thank you very much for your detailed response it all does make good sense I would love to get the link to your CCF post when you make it please.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Home commems have a very informative post about it on here, but unfortunately with classics there doesn't appear to be a guide of this is what this looks like in every grade ect
Im in the same boat as you I could get close like low ms high ms ect but cant hit the actual grades on the head which is one of the many reasons my set is all slabbed.
Edited by basebal21
07/31/2012 11:10 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1302 Posts |
In 1934, one could buy a roll of Benington half dollars for 85 cents each. Or, if you'd prefer the entire 5 coin Pan-Pac set for $360. By the 1950s, most prices were still reasonable, adjusting for inflation. The peak years for the classic commemoratives was the early 1980s- at that point it wasn't quite clear yet as to how many of these pieces were available- and the dealers who knew- kept this information fairly secret. As with many classic coins- classic commemoratives have had wild up and down swings due to price manipulation.
Prices went up again once they started to get certified- but now we have a pretty good idea of how many are out there- and there's more readily available coins than demand, for much of what's out there. Premium coins are different story. but even those coins need a buyer.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
620 Posts |
I also am working on a set of the classic older halfs, I buy one raw in AU or better then buy one in MS-64 of the ones that have shorter mintage. I admit this set hasnt been on the front burner as I have been chasing Morgan dollarsand Barber halfs. As these two Albums are closer to being finishe, I have returned my focus to the early commem halfs. Last week I picked up a nice AU-55 1920 Pilgram for well under 50 bucks and free shipping. The TPG ones I have include 1918 Illinois, Grant,Texas and a few others. These old Halfs raw and in the Dansco make a most interesting set. Much eye appeal and the many different designs really show off the art work. Hald dollars are my favorite denomination and I have completed date and mm sets of Walkers, Franklins, and JFK halfs And works in progress are Seated Liberty halfs, Barbers and the Early commem Halfs. I agree the higher grade coins have not fallen in value to me they have went up least on the ones I own Good luck to all that are chasing a set of the artistic coin of our countrys past. |
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Replies: 13 / Views: 1,569 |
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Posted 07/28/2012 12:15 am
