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 Replies: 15 / Views: 1,791 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
... I really hope they keep going since my wife has told me to buy "a lot" if silver gets back down below $30.  |
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Valued Member
United States
103 Posts |
Nice to see you have the support of your " better half "
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5855 Posts |
Well, it would have been better had she supported me back when silver was at $27 and I wanted to buy a lot. My suspicion is that she doesn't really think that prices will drop back down, so she is throwing me a bone to keep me happy, but you never know...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
Nice thread, barryg! I too am sensing that a "pre-November" buying opportunity might be upon us!
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1411 Posts |
I hope so... I have alot of my money waiting for a nice buying oppertunity
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Valued Member
United States
376 Posts |
I started buying only when it was at $26 an oz earlier this year. Now looking at it, I would love seeing it under $30!!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1659 Posts |
I think it is a very good time to be selling silver. I also think 'plummet' is an accurate term for what's in store for the very near future.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
What technical reasons would there be for silver to plummet, as you put it?
I wouldn't care either way since I have an actual use for mine; I'm not hoarding it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
Yeah - I'm curious too. The American dollar being replaced as the #1 global reserve currency and its purchasing power is being eroded quicker than an exposed beach during a record-breaking hurricane. Our economy is on life support (a/k/a "QE3") and fading fast, China is making serious progress toward replacing us as the #1 global economic force, etc ad infinitum... And I haven't even addressed our disastrous political situations on a national or global basis! A lot of economic and financial pundits see all this as driving PM prices up - way up. Please throw me some encouragement in this dismal time we're in here - what identifiable, solid reasons do you see for PM prices being about to "plummet?"
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Personally, I agree that the long term prognosis of silver and gold is that it will eventually rise stratospherically. That's why I've been buying it in the first place, as a long-term investment. And I certainly don't expect it to ever go back down to historically low levels of $4-5 and $300-400, respectively.
After watching silver climb to nearly $50 last year and then plummet to $26 before slowly climbing back and then falling and then climbing again, however, I am willing to entertain the possibility that this cycle may repeat a few more times before prices eventually take off for good. A few days ago, silver was above $35. This morning, it was in the mid $33 range. I jokingly referred to that as as "plummet," but only time will tell if it goes back up or falls further in the short term.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
If you look at it that way, then $50 is really a drop in the pond compared to the bigger picture. However, be prepared to see what the world looks like when it finally does take off. Things are pretty bad now, but they're occulted - not explicit or mainstream. I'd hate to see what the world will look like then.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
I would like it to rise a bit more than retreat personally. I like the yoyo effect. Gives me ops to sell and buy. Clean up odds and ends silver and reinvest in the silver I like.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
but you never know... Indeed not, Barry. Women are, for the most part, a different species than men. Any man who THINKS that he understands these delightful but mysterious creatures is most likely fooling himself.  Quote:
I think it is a very good time to be selling silver. I also think 'plummet' is an accurate term for what's in store for the very near future. Really? What makes you think that? You expecting a sudden surge in value for the US dollar? An end of QE? A return of fiscal sanity in DC? A HUGE silver strike? A sudden decrease in all of the products made with silver? These are the kinds of things that would be needed to drop the price of silver. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1659 Posts |
Quote:
You expecting a sudden surge in value for the US dollar? An end of QE? A return of fiscal sanity in DC? A HUGE silver strike? A sudden decrease in all of the products made with silver? These are the kinds of things that would be needed to drop the price of silver. Did those things happen the last two times silver hit 35, and then dipped? As to how I came to my conclusion, I probably read what you read. I do tend to discount the irrational political fears tainting many opinions, and I try hard to not let greed cloud my thinking. Question - what conditions are so different now than they were last two times silver hit $35/oz? For one to say silver can'/won't decline this time, as it did the last two times, something must be different. What is different this time? Edited by ArrowsAndRays
10/10/2012 12:59 am
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
The two things I can think of are that Obamacare was upheld and that QE is now in effect. That said I agree I dont think that justifies setting a new price point at 35. It was sitting between 26-28 which would be a 7-9 dollar increase which is a 20-30% jump. Thats a very significant price increase. Weve seen it at 35 before, weve seen it at 40, weve even seen it at 50 and it fell back down. Will it come all the way back to 5 dollars, maybe maybe not but probably not anytime in the near future. However its about equally as likely that mid 30s became the new baseline in a matter of days. In time Id believe it but it came up real fast and weve already seen it start to move back down.
If you plan to keep it until you die it doesn't really matter either way as long as you can afford what youre buying. I do agree with Ed that until you sell its only a paper loss, but its still a loss and you still know you paid x amount and can now only get x amount if you needed.
Even if we just look at the last few years. Silver spiked in 08, dropped significantly when people thought Obama was the great hope and won, sat 15-20 for 2010 then has been up and down since. The QE isn't great and is a poor method to control debt long term, but you can get away with it a few times. Weve done it a couple times and didnt see the big spikes were seeing now.
So to sum it up and answer your questions whats changed, I would say not enough to justify the mid 30 level. The early part of the 80s saw a massive spike, which is the highest its ever been when you take into account the value of money, then a massive drop then a spike again. But it came back down. Early 90s saw a mini spike but it came back down, same for the late 90s. Its been climbing since 06 now but saw a big drop around the start of 09. I wasnt alive in the early 80s but those were real bad times too and it recovered. Theres more historical data to suggest it will go back down than go up and stay there. Now if we get to about the decade point of climbing and staying there Id change my mind, but a couple years of high prices weve seen before and they came back down
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
What BB21 said. To that, I would add that we all know that silver is volatile and that it will move up and down in price on a fairly routine basis. My comments were directed at the idea that there are real fiscal problems in this country and elsewhere around the world that are not be addressed in any meaningful way... and probably won't be, given that politicians do not seem good at doing the things that are difficult; this in spite of the fact that this is WHY they were hired in the 1st place. Because of this, all of the world's fiat currencies are in danger, not just of serious erosion due to inflation but to actual collapse if people lose confidence in them. If that happens, silver and gold will be the "last men standing" in the financial realm and valued considerably higher than they are today. Besides... silver bouncing up and down by $5-10 is not all that significant to those of us who buy and hold the metal for a long time. When it drops, we tend to buy more, when it rises we tend to buy less. But we continue to buy and stack regardless of these price swings. Those who seek to profit from flipping silver are not on this same path, so for them even small changes in price are quite meaningful. Each of us must decide which path we choose and that includes those who do some of each. |
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Replies: 15 / Views: 1,791 |
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Posted 10/08/2012 07:53 am
