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What Will You Buy If Pm Prices Dip Sharply Again?

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barryg's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 10/15/2012  08:35 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
As I've mentioned in other threads, my wife has "authorized" me to make a significant end-of-year PM purchase if and when silver prices ever dip back below $30. Assuming gold prices drop at the same time, I'll probably purchase a little of that as well.

The question is, what to buy? Although junk silver seems like the best bet, I've noticed that whenever there is a sharp dip the premiums on junk silver tend to increase dramatically. The premiums on things like ASEs, on the other hand, don't seem to fluctuate as much. I already have a monster box of ASEs, though (as well as a monster box of Silver Maples), and I do like a little variety...

Anyway, here's what I have added to my cart over at Goldmart, in optimistic anticipation of a day that may never come:

1 Monster Box (500 coins) of Silver Austrian Philharmonics (currently $2.09 per oz over spot)

2 100 oz Johnson Matthey silver bars (currently $0.59 per oz over spot)

5 Mexican Gold 50 Pesos (currently $11.99 per coin over spot)

Of course, If I ever do make this purchase, one of two things will likely happen. Either the price of PMs will further plummet and I'll feel foolish for not waiting or else the price will go up dramatically and I'll regret not buying more when I had the chance...

Anybody else give any thought to what they might buy if and when the prices dip sharply again?
Edited by barryg
10/15/2012 08:35 am
Valued Member
Coinguy1000's Avatar
United States
305 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinguy1000 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Morgan Silver Dollars!
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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I love me some good Morgans! Gotta watch out for those premiums, though. Last year I had my eyes on a $100 face value bag of Morgans in BU condition over at APMEX when silver was over $40. I was just waiting and waiting for the price of silver to drop before making the purchase. Suddenly, silver dropped sharply and I thought now was my chance! When I checked, however, I discovered that the price of the $100 bag had actually gone up instead of down.

I actually called to complain and was informed that APMEX is a dealer and not an exchange (despite their name) and that their prices are based on what they paid for items, not what the spot price is.

I suppose if silver dipped below $30 and stayed there for awhile until the premiums normalized I might reconsider buying that bag. But with temporary dips the premiums just don't seem to come down.
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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
And just for future reference, APMEX currently has their $100 face value bag of BU Morgans for sale at $4,689 ($4,829.67 for CC purchases). If silver does drop below $30, it will be interesting to see what their asking price is then.
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throwbackid's Avatar
1283 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add throwbackid to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Why must you clear everything with your wife first? I guess I don't understand.
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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Because we share finances. It's not "my" money and "her" money but "our" money. We don't check with each other for minor stuff, but definitely on large purchases.

That's just the way we do it...
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lukemarshall's Avatar
United States
103 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lukemarshall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Barry, I think you are spot on with the philharmonic box.

Instead of two 100oz JMs, what about just one and 100 JM singles?
They aren't to much over spot because of the new production.

And if I was gonna be buying 6oz of gold, I would pay the premium to have some variety, like

1 AGE
1 Libertad
1 Kangaroo
1 Britania
1 Panda
And
1 Maple

Just me though...


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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  09:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Instead of two 100oz JMs, what about just one and 100 JM singles?

Well, it's mostly a personal preference, I guess. I like the heft and look of the 100-ounce JM bars and they are a lot easier to stack than the 1-ounce versions. Besides, if I'm buying pure bullion bars (as opposed to numismatic coins) I really do prefer to get the lowest premium possible and $1.49 per ounce over spot just doesn't do it for me when I can get the 100-ounce bars for $0.59 (or lower).

Quote:
And if I was gonna be buying 6oz of gold, I would pay the premium to have some variety

Yes, variety is nice, but it's not my main concern when buying bullion. I already have a 4-coin AGE set and some Krugerrands, so I figured some Gold Pesos would be a nice addition (especially with the ultra low premium). In general, as a collector I'm really only interested in U.S. currency -- everything else is purchased primarily as bullion.
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throwbackid's Avatar
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 Posted 10/15/2012  11:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add throwbackid to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Stay away from the philharmonic's, around here you get paid the same as if you had generic silver. Plus who really cares if you spend an extra $200 on a box of SAE as opposed to philharmonic's? Someday that will be a pitance to what the silver is worth. If I were you which I'm obv not I would buy as many eagles and 100 oz JM's as possible.
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Fat Freddy's Avatar
United States
1200 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  12:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Fat Freddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gotta agree w/TBK on the Phils. Where I live, the landscape is chest-deep in ASEs and CSMs, but Phils aren't well-received. The buy-in premium is OK, but my like of them is unusual. If I wanted to unload mine, I'd have to ship them to an internet dealer to get an OK deal. The ASEs cost more on the buy-in, but I can move out of them the most easily and @ the best rate in my area. That has the unfortunate effect of mandatorily narrowing the focus of my bullion coin-stacking program to ASEs and CSMs, but I guess that's life. Besides, all those fancy other coins I'd love to stack carry (what to me are) unpalatably high premiums and would probably be financially painful to move out of in my area.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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3670 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  12:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
At the beginning of this push up I called 35 MAX for silver and 1800 for gold. I hit the silver exactly as it was 35 for a few minutes a couple different times. Gold never did get to 1800, but it was close.....

As far as buys, who knows the best deal I can find or bang fro my buck as always....

I think Morgans, Peace, ASE, or bars theses days, not exactly in that order....
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SDCrow's Avatar
United States
456 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  1:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SDCrow to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have my eye on a roll of 2013 Canadian Antelope that I would like to pick up if silver approaches $30/oz again. I'd add at least the same amount in 90% as well.
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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  1:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting comments about the Philharmonics. As I mentioned, I already have a box of ASEs and a box of Maples, so I was just looking to shake things up a bit. I agree, though, that the ASEs might be easier to sell down the road depending on where you live.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  1:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To say they only sell in Europe would not be accurate, again that is where they would be hottest....

Panda's are hottest in Asia, Maples in Canada and so on....

I like them an would have no issue adding them, but that is just me. I know I could stack many as TBK does NOT like them, rof one plus....

They never list on bay at buy it nows under 40 bucks, minus running auction at 38 if your lucky so they have that value or they would list lower....

Edited by Silverhawk74
10/15/2012 1:31 pm
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ArrowsAndRays's Avatar
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1660 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  1:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ArrowsAndRays to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I really have no idea, but I'd like to figure it out. 95% of my silver was purchased below $20/oz, and 95% of that is numismatic, not bullion. And I admit I've never been able to wrap my head around the reasoning behind believing there's a long term up value of novelty bullion like ASEs, Leafs, and Dragons. In an economic crisis will it matter if your ounce of silver has a pretty picture?

edit: spelling
Edited by ArrowsAndRays
10/15/2012 1:26 pm
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barryg's Avatar
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5862 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2012  1:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I admit I've never been able to wrap my head around the reasoning behind believing there's a long term up value of novelty bullion like ASEs, Leafs, and Dragons. In an economic crisis will it matter if your ounce of silver has a pretty picture?

I agree, and that is why I have (for the most part) steered clear of bullion with high markups, like the pandas and dragons.

I think the advantage of ASEs and Leafs is that they are produced by a government and are easily recognizable and trusted, as opposed to some generic silver round that has "1 ounce .999 silver" stamped on it but could really be anything.

Junk silver is also very good, but again I think it might be easier dealing with solid ounces of silver instead of .859 ounces of 90% pure silver. Just easier to know the value without having to calculate anything.
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