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 Replies: 58 / Views: 9,255 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Quote:
In my area the dimes are horrible, but not because Brinks sorts out the silver, it's because they pick up the Coinstar coins which rejects the silver ones Exactly. That is why I've never scored with Brinks dimes. When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
622 Posts |
I've heard the Brinks/Coinstar discussion a few times. I've dismissed it because I figured the coinstar impact would be felt by everyone that searches brinks dimes...not a regional issue. There are people that have success with brink clear wrapped dimes which minimized the coinstar affect on searching dimes.
To those that feel coinstar is the problem; why would that affect one area and not another? I figured coinstar was nation wide.
OO
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Pillar of the Community
United States
979 Posts |
A bit lengthy of a post, but I find this logic to be the only answer to this often debated topic. PLEASE let me know if there is a crack in my reasoning.
Statements to be supported:
1. Companies could not feasibly pay people to CRH, but could use a machine
2. Such a machine is not likely to exist
Sure companies COULD pay people to cull, but the would need a machine to make it worth their while (i.e make money on it)
Reasoning:
Have you ever looked at your wage per hour CRH? It's not a way to get rich. They could not pay someone to do a job like cull silver. If they WERE doing that and making a profit, the workers would realize they should just do it at home.
If they find enough silver to make it worth the companies time, they find enough to make it worth their OWN time. It's like mining. Why would you mine for a wage when you could keep the silver/gold/whatever? Better to mine on your own terms!
So really there are two possibilities:
1 They cull with a machine
2 They do not cull
I would take possibility 1 and say this: if big companies did this, then why is there ANY silver to be found?
And if there are machines sucking out silver, why does coinstar spit it out?
Just look on my coinstar thread. Coinstar doesn't like silver! Why would it not take advantage of such a good deal? $0.10 for $2 in silver? I'd take that trade all day. And so would coinstar, if they cared about the minuscule amount of silver that is out there.
Logic. Can anyone back me up? "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!" <site that quote for a gold star :)
If anyone has any objections, please post them too! I would like to see if there are any seams in my reasoning.
Edited by Broseph
12/04/2012 9:11 pm
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Valued Member
United States
162 Posts |
@Broseph: Are you saying silver sorting machines are not likely to exist? They most definitely exist and aren't that expensive. They aren't specifically for silver, but they work by scanning a sample coin (it analyzes the metal content) then sorts the coins you put in and pulling out the coins that match your sample coin. Most people use these sorting machines to sort the copper pennies from the zincs, but they can be used with virtually any coin.
Edited by TheCentMan
12/04/2012 9:31 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
530 Posts |
Yes brinks does not cull silver. They do supposedly have some super sorter, but the intention of the machine is to seperate foriegn coins and guiter picks...etc... They obviously dont use the "super sorter" in my area, I get foreign stuff alot.
Also on the halves even if some guy dumps 80 boxes of skunks a week in your area, thats probably nothing. In my town thats 3 guys worth of boxes a week.I know theres alot more then that getting searched weekly, so one guy dumping that much might give you some skunks one week, but most likely its multiple peoples dumps for that week, and no new silver got to the coin rolling facility that week, or it was in the other boxes that week.
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Pillar of the Community
1751 Posts |
80 boxes is plenty enough to ruin a supply, especially if it's getting dumped there on a regular basis.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
979 Posts |
Centman,I know coin sorters exist, like rydales for small scale and industrial ones that people use for copper sorting/selling. But it's like halfhunter said, when machines sort coins out they are generally sorting our foreign coins, mangled coins, etc. Like Coinstar,it spits out chewed coins, silver, and foreign. If big businesses cared about a few silver coins, these machines like coinstar would save them. (and when you are talking about the volume those companies sort, it really is few) If you have ever looked at the cost of these machines, you would realize it's not worth it for them to go for silver. A countertop sorter for banks and such are in the $5k range. Coinstars cost much more. Those industrial mosters... cost way too much to worry about a few silvers. Those machines are optimized for getting fees for banks and business that buy rolled coins, or in the case of copper sellers, sorting them and selling poundage In this video, after the rydale sorter, you see a massive coinsorter. This guy makes money selling copper pennies because they are COMMON, even though the sell for so much less. Silver coins are few and far between, so not worth a monster machine, plus all the overheads that go into it, time, repairs/maintenance (which is constantly required with sorting type machines), real estate, etc etc, http://abcnews.go.com/Business/laws....UGI9VkKcN7E |
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Valued Member
United States
162 Posts |
Not worth the machine? Think how many coins Brinks goes through.... It'd only cost a few hundred dollars to add that kind of sorting function (if even that, you can buy a sensor alone for around $20). Adding a sensor to an already existing monster machine seems feasible. Obviously Coinstar uses it (metal composition sorting) to sort coins, but doesn't care about silver enough to set them up to keep them with their machines. If Brinks sorts their coins in any way (Sorting halves to put into half rolls), they are probably sorting them based on metal composition (as most sorting machines do, vending machines do as well....).
It makes complete business sense to me for Brinks to do this. It would also explain why it's so difficult (but still possible) to find silver in Brinks rolls. Coin sorting machines (at least mid-range models) are only roughly 97% accurate so SOME silver can still get through.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
530 Posts |
Quote:
0 boxes is plenty enough to ruin a supply, especially if it's getting dumped there on a regular basis. NAA, I dont think so. Maybe in adak alaska, population 1000 sure it will, but not around here thats just mondays orders in my town. Like I said on this message board and one other I know of 4-5 people that search my supply, thats over 100 boxes a week, and I guarantee thats not everybody, atleast a few silvers show up weekly. ITs already been proven with spray painters on this and other forums. You might think your the half king doing 80 a week, but in reality, your just doing 3 guys worth, out of 30 guys. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
979 Posts |
Seriously... If it were that simple, we wouldn't see any. With how many hand searchers there are out there, plus BRINKS searching basically every coin, there would be none. And it wouldn't be different from region to region.
I think sometime people think of what THEY would do if they were in change. Me? I'd wanna suck the silver out. Sure. And I'd wanna hoard it up :) I just don't think that it's on their radar... Some regions on this site have people reporting thousands of dollars of halves searched with no silvers.
even with the price of silver, it makes it a decimal percent of cash over the total face value.
Let me show you what I mean with numbers. because numbers don't lie
Using the formula Part/whole x 100 = percent
We can use this to show the percent increase in value. For example, if a box of $500 in halves has ONE silver, it has an added $12 silver value.
So using the formula 512/500 x 100 = 102.4
But that's considering one silver per box (which would certainly not be the case if they sucked it all out) and we got 2.4% increase, which sounds decent
Let see how far it breaks down if we do $1500 in halves for one silver
1512/1500 x 100 = 100.08%
We have already reached decimals! One silver in three boxes is now under 1%. Now considering they set these machines up, it would suck out ALL silver (but the 3% you are assuming for accuracy)
So if we take that .08 percent increase and multiply it by .03, we will get the percent of profit we will get in the future after ONE CYCLE of all halves through the machine agaian.
.08% x .03 = .0024
After one more cycle of 97 percent accuracy? .0024 x .03 = .000074
That is really small. In business this concept is called diminishing returns. Businesses do not invest in foreseeable diminishing returns. Businesses seek to GROW, not shrink.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3640 Posts |
Depending on the bank or credit union and whether they
have coin counting machines or not and the type of coin counter if so.
Some banks keep CWR's in their vault for a long time. Others break up the rolls into bags to be picked up. Some machines have separate bags
in them that sort the denoms. and the carriers just come and pick up the bags. Most modern machines are capable of being programmed to reject certain coins as well as silver. Other machines actually have a magnet that collects any magnetic coin. These coins are not counted nor rejected. The bank gets them. Next are the carrier drivers. They may (when they have a break) which is hardly ever, poke through some unsealed bags of coins. At the facility not much chance of picking there. Cameras everywhere. They have to count, process, roll etc. whatever comes in. It's still just a chance game no matter what carrier etc.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
I can't and won't try to detach myself from The Evil Brinks, Et.Al. Conspiracy Theory because I love it too much-- but I think one consideration we're largely ignoring is the number and activity level of CRHers in any given locality.
As a half-hunting exercise, I recently did an area blanket hunt for loose and CWR halves. I hit up all the easily accessible "downtown" area bank branches in the city I live in and the 2 other cities that make up my area (1=10 miles away and the other=20 miles away). I did this in the early to mid morning time frame in the mid-week, so as to avoid rush hours and get the best possible reception. I hit up over 3 dozen bank branches in a Tues-Weds-Thurs morning sequence.
Almost without exception, the tellers looked at me with cordial, polite understanding and tolerant but grim-faced pity, as if I was some psych center escapee wandering city streets wearing an open-backed hospital gown and a plastic patient ID bracelet. Half a dozen of them volunteered the fact that they have regulars who hit them up 2x or 3x every week for silver coins (mostly halves, for the record). I picked up >$350 in loose halves (incl 6 CWRs) and--you guessed it!!--didn't find a single silver half. Another Great Idea bites the dust and gets consigned to The Great Idea Graveyard...
I think the % of CRHers who participate in online forums, coin clubs, etc is probably >10%. I believe there's a well-populated world of closet CRHers out there who spend their time in their dimly-lit digs, pawing through untold numbers of boxes of circulating coin, sucking the pool dry of silvers and quietly muttering malicious oaths at the other CRHers who're depriving them of the silvers they so richly deserve but almost never find.
When I evaluate the likely reason(s) why my dismal half hunting (now over 40 boxes) has yielded zero silvers, I think it's more realistic for me to hang my hat on other CRHers than on The Evil Brinks, Et.Al. Conspiracy. Brinks, Et.Al. may or may not be guilty as charged, but I KNOW for a fact the other CRHers are out there in force and that they've already got the landscape blanketed. The bank tellers themselves have already told me that for a fact.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
622 Posts |
I have some perspective for those of you that have searched a few boxes of halves and determined they are dried up or gone "in their area". I want to preface this by saying that you can't compare half dollars and dimes when it comes to silver distribution because dimes are common circulated coins and halves are just passed back and forth.
I went through 30 thousand in Brinks halves without a single silver half dollar at a BofA location close to me. That was probably a year ago. On average, I would guess this bank produces 1 silver every 2 boxes. That's not including the 303 silvers I found in 1, yes ONE Brinks box from the exact same bank, exact same courier and wrappers.
The lesson here is that you can't determine anything (with Halves) based off running through a few boxes.
OO
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Valued Member
United States
162 Posts |
Broseph I don't understand why you just went and did all that math, doesn't prove your point any further. You're talking about them getting 1 silver for every 500 coins. That's what YOU make as a searcher, I bet Brinks finds more. That 1 out of 500 is probably just the coin counting machine's error. Low end counters are roughly 2%-3% inaccurate. They probably use a high end counter that isn't even 1% inaccurate if even that!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
979 Posts |
Ok, lets assume that silver is abundant. Lets say that when brinks was to get a machine to sort out silver they found 50 silvers per box on average.
Let me point out that this is a ridiculous average (not a highest or lowest, a MEAN average)
$500 face + $600 silver value.
Part/whole x 100 = % difference
$1100/$500 x 100 = 220%
Great profit margin! So where could this possibly break down?
Ok, so if that was the case (and I hope you realize it is not) it would be something that was done at one point and would never be done again. Here's why.
We again take that 3% error as a decimal .03 and multiply our previous numbers by it.
On average the first time we had 120% increase (subtracted the 100% of face value since it is not affected)
120% x .03 = 3.6%
So the second time the coins come back, after being brought back to them, AND assuming no one takes them out, there is only a 3.6% profit to be made. Or if you did the other numbers, 1.5 silver half dollars left on average per $500 box.
One more run through? 3.6% x .03 = .108% profit
3rd run
.108% x .03 = 0.00324
The concept is still the same. Diminishing returns is a dead end business investment.
Seriously, I ran the number assuming 10% silver halves out there, and it STILL doesn't make sense. They would initially double their money and then the game is over.
So there are 2 possibilities:
1: They culled them all and it's over
2: They didn't cull and it's people like us that take it all
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Replies: 58 / Views: 9,255 |
First Page
Posted 12/04/2012 11:42 am
