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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
Quote:
Military spending cuts can lead to this all changing down the road if we keep going down that path but its going to be a slow change barring an act of god like a massive natural disaster or a civil war/nuclear war. Without getting specifically political about it... The statement above is a quick initial glimpse in one direction that could possibly change the way the global stage is presently set. There are political groups, nations, cultures and religions in the world today that would like nothing more than seeing the US annihilated. This has already been demonstrated in the last 15 years. In addition to that, there are new technologies emerging like biological warfare, man-portable nuclear devices and other nightmares like cyberwarfare. These things are just in their infancy now, but one distinct probability is that they'll render traditional military power obsolete---just like jet power and nuclear weapons rendered WWI trench warfare technology obsolete. I don't want to ignite another of those mindlessly speculative SHTF jabbering sessions here but there are many possible developments that we're racing toward, and any of them could radically change the world we know with startling speed. In view of that, I don't see the sensibility of considering anything to be permanent and I mean the word "anything" to include present world social, political, economic and religious systems and structures. With luck we should hopefully have a good long time left with things largely as they are now, but declaring the status quo to be permanent is just simple denial of all the lessons of world history and specifically the lessons of 20th century history. By extension of that conclusion, I can't see US debt continuing to be the most beloved commodity in the entire global economy on a permanent basis. "Always" = permanent = forever, and nothing is forever. Edited by Fat Freddy
03/26/2014 10:41 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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t. There are political groups, nations, cultures and religions in the world today that would like nothing more than seeing the US annihilated. Its mostly just a few isolated groups making a career out of war. There are some nations that would rather we not exist, but not if it had to be done like that. Theres not really any suicidal leaders out there and theres no doubt any country tied to something like that would be bombed/nuked off the face of the earth. With that said it is possible but at the same time unless youre working in intelligence or Special Forces theres no reason to worry about that. If nerve agents and nukes are going off youre probably dead. Its like worrying about a comet hitting, if its going to happen its going to happen and theres not much of a point in preparing for something thats going to take an incredible amount of luck surviving the initial event in the first place. Attacks like that are very unlikely anyway. Theres only a handful of countries that have the technology for a nuke much less a portable one. Bio weapons dont really grow on trees either. But its also a suicide mission and people who carry those arent generally arent very competent. Pushing a button is one thing, using something that like requires intelligence and a skill level that far surpasses the average bomber. The people with those skills are never the one doing the attack themselves because they dont want to die. Mother nature is the same way too. If the Yellowstone Volcano goes off, its wont matter we wont be here anymore. Its be like training to survive a gun shot to the head. The only way you are is with an unbelievable amount of luck/someone watching over you. Certainly possible, but highly unlikely. I do agree though eventually things will change, heck 200 years from now we could easily be two separate countries. Political hacks can only pin the country against each other for so long for their own personal gain and power before you know what hits the fan and the usual civil war every nationa faces every so often breaks out. But my point is to basically focus on things that are most likely to happen and survivable events. Anyone living in a large city that thinks they would survive the country falling apart or wmd attacks is kidding themselves. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
More continued dripping here. Absolutely no attempt to bounce yet. Clearly, the retracement we saw in price weeks early was just a counter trend move, which is normal.
As of this AM, more lower highs, lower lows in both gold and silver. The more this continues, the higher probability now we are on a path to much lower prices.
I would expect some sort of bounce one of these days. From there we can start to again look at levels and see if the bounce counts towards stopping the bleeding or if we are just on a continued path lower.
I would also like to point out that this selling really picked up on the same day of the Feds minutes released last week. Clearly the winding down of QE is killing gold and silver.
Please dont make the mistake of thinking that silver and gold are cheap right here. If you loved them at 20 and 1300, will you love them as much at 15 and 1200? Furthermore, if they rip below that, will you consider 10 and 1000 cheap? Will you have money to keep buying if prices keep running lower? Furthermore, supposing you do buy them at say 20, will you be willing to hold for however it takes and accept that perhaps some day you might have to sell for a loss?
We all know that buying a car for less than MSRP is a great thing. We want a bargain, we want it cheap. However, when it comes to assets, buying cheap, the notion of buying low to sell higher, and in commodities especially,all that has to be re-thought because not all assets are "cheap" when they are bought as they decline.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
According to the Kitco charts, silver put up a heck of a fight to hold it's ground despite gold breaking below $1300.
Edited by coinwatch
03/28/2014 12:06 am
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
I loved silver at $30 - bought ## oz
at $20 - bought ### oz
at $10 - I'd buy #### oz
this is a metal to have!
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
bekiz, I agree with you.
Contrary to other comments on this thread, I DO want to buy at falling prices, it's about HOW MUCH I buy on it's way down and continue to buy on it's way up, and eventually start selling to realize profits.
Buying only at rising means:
YOu've missed the best pricing, you don't know the rise is real or a one step forward, two back.
And most importantly, keep only what you can lose in these metals.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Sadly, the notion of averaging down will never stick with the general public. I'll continue tho to tell you the folly in buying assets that decline.
You have no idea first where the bottom is when you buy on the way down. Secondly, you have no assurance that the price will ever rise above where you bought from.
In the financial markets, declining assets are not bought. Assets that have stopped declining are bought when they start to rise.
The big mistake someone makes when they are buying on the way down is worrying that you will miss out on the move up. This emotional response to not be late is what makes everyone lose money in the financial markets. Why someone would want to keep buying a declining asset with ZERO guarantee or proof that prices will rise again is beyond me.
I hope that none of you lose money doing this, but sadly thats what happens. But hey, its your money not mine, I can only repeat my warnings and experience.
Today we got our bounce... if thats what you want to call it. This bounce is to expected and would not be surprised to either see gold and silver trade range bound or continue to fall. There are levels of support here for now in terms of price. Charts this weekend.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
BTW Leo-
you are wrong in your reasoning that buying on the way up means you have missed the best pricing.
We buy rising prices depending on the context of the time frame. If silver was at yearly highs, I would be a buyer because yearly highs = higher prices.
However, we know that in a downtrend, a move up first is considered a counter trend move and does not guarantee that the downtrend is over until we take level by level.
On the other hand, buying a declining asset in a strong downtrend guarantees lower prices from where one has bought from. It also guarantees that what you bought, will do absolutely nothing.
This is why we pay attention to price always. We do not formulate opinions and take action based on our opinions. The market decides when its time for something to be bought or sold short or nothing to be done at all.
In my years of experience, I have not see someone ever make a profit on a declining asset unless they are selling short or trading around it. Investing in an declining asset is the kiss of death for ones money.
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
Yup,
I respect your points, and see the validity.
The challenge is "where's the bottom?" and "where's the top?"
There's also a lot of money lost in a frenzy of people buying while an asset is rising, as evidenced at/near the top of these markets a year or so ago.
There are no hard stops on top or bottom, the only thing that history has taught us is that Gold/Silver has been used as currency for 2600 years, and is globally accepted in it's current form as-is. I can think of no other currency that has that track record.
My worse case scenario would be: Silver at $4 per ounce and Gold at $200. Yes, it would be ideal knowing these bottoms and waiting around for them. However, these moves are not directional. Reading trends is fun, but are not conclusive.
I have been reading this thread since the first day it was posted, and have never heard "BUY NOW" or "SELL NOW", although, there have been suggestions to "Take some profits", and "Wait on big purchases". If the trends are concrete, I await the advice, "BUY NOW" or "SELL IT ALL NOW".
For now, I dabble with money i'd spend on a new "toy", my 401k, etc are not being tapped, nor are my other components of security. However, the more dropping we see, I will slowly turn up the flow to these metals, watch the bottom hit and dial back as it rises up again. Not knowing where this bottom is removes this fun.
Finally, I agree with everyone else commenting:
Spending on credit, or having ANY credit outstanding should not be investing in ANYTHING, other than paying debt.
Spending any money on metals without having a BIG emergency fund, a sound retirement account, and all other things in order.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@Leo
Well, no one can truly call a top or bottom. Its impossible. However, the price action is thus telling us that the downtrend is still in place. We had a counter trend move that quickly gave up almost its entire move.
This type of price action is saying for now, "dont buy in size", meaning dont look yet to put any money to invest in gold and silver.
I say this- I want to at least warn that this is not the time yet, if one has to really invest in metals. Better to get in a point where the bottoming action is credible.
This recent move would have been better for gold and silver if it had not given so much so fast.
What we ideally want to see is the prices stop going down, and either base around for a while before moving higher, then base again, move up, and so on. this will be ideal price action for giving an idea what areas are holding for once and all.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well.. more bleeding. I am looking for a bounce....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Here's another article for the gold bugs on CCF. This came across my stream and wanted to share. Disagree with pretty much everything he says EXCEPT for how he mentions exactly what I know already and been saying, that China has no intention of dumping its USD, that it cant. anyways, hope you gold bugs enjoy it. When I have some time here I also want to run up some charts and some views as to whats happening with gold and silver. In short tho, we continue to get a series of lower highs and lower lows. Bounces thus far are weak. I expect we get into some areas of support. What happens from there, off hand I say more range bound trading. http://inteligenciafinancieraglobal...ng-gold.html |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
And we get our bounce this morning. Gold up $11.90
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
What are opinions on PT and Russia? Just wondering. I read an article earlier and it said PT orders were up.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@angel
PT as in Platinum..and Russia as in their financial markets?
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Posted 03/27/2014 12:35 am
