What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

Short of an unforeseen crisis, I bet Goldman Sachs is right. If the big players decide gold is headed for further decline, it's often a self fulfilling prophecy.

GS sometimes has good calls, sometimes not. However, not even GS can trump price action. It remains to be seen if they are right or wrong.

So we just gotta set tight and wait till Christmas to go all in when that magic 1000k hits....

My question is what will me the ramifications to the red headed stepchild aka silver when this all goes down?

Are we talking 10 bucks per oz. silver?

And I am like most I hear many predicitons but seeing as how they called the 1200 gold they have my attention....

During silver's high flying days, my interest in silver commemorative coins almost disappeared in favor of lowest cost high quality bullion.

However, with silver in decline, I'm once again watching the commemoratives and collectible coins closely. Specifically, coins like the Canadian "wildlife series" and the annual Australian Kangaroo issues look to be holding their value pretty well. Is anyone else seeing a resurgence of numismatic / collectible value in these coins? And if so, could adding commemoratives back to my buy list be a good strategy for growing my stack in this bear market? I'm just curious to see what you all think. Thoughts?

EDIT: Instead of commemoratives, maybe I should say "special issues" or "annuals." Commemoratives typically mean 90% issues like from the US Mint. Hope there wasn't any confusion.

I agree... folks should stay away from bullion for now. That includes gold and silver.

I say you go and look for coins that have had high prems that been knocked down. Look for high quality. Look for proof silver and gold. Finally, I think you go for gold over silver. Silver is way too speculative, more volatile and I think gets kicked in the teeth on the way down more than gold. Just as it was run up, it will get run down.

Some ideas on what you should be looking for-

1. US Mint proof gold and silver

2. RCM proof silver and gold

3. Smaller series in silver that offered unique finishes that were a hit, such as those Mongolian coins with animals. Then there was the Rwanda wildlife series, which had proof silver coins. Another series that sported an antique finish in silver was the Elephant Silver Ounce, they did several of these so far starting with 2012, the Elephant was for Gabon. Coin was at almost 212+ before the drop in silver now its been going for 129-176. This coin will bounce back up after silver stops dropping. Finally, I will with NO SHAME at all :D , plug my love of the Somalian elephant coins. These are bullion, however older dates should be considered first and then look to add the colored and gilded coins.

This is how you beat the dealers and the game and how you get ahead of the pack which are still busy buying bullion. The basic idea is to grab QUALITY and the coins that will bounce back in price once we have a floor in gold and silver. Think of those coins like the staple names in the stock market that despite being knocked down hard, end up coming back, Exxon, Coke, P&G, IBM etc.

Again this is just a list of ideas, go back in your mind and think about what coins you skipped that were proof as an example, that you passed up because they were too expensive.

Dont forget also to look at new products from the US Mint, RCM. Look at the Buffs and proof gold Ealges. They have been knocked down. I wouldnt be shocked if because of the lower silver and gold prices we once again see low low low mintage numbers in these proofs as people stop buying high end coins because of the drop in prices, which is really foolish IMO.

yup,

You are making it very tempting to sell out of a lot of my non-numismatic bullion with the expectation that I will buy it back later for a significantly lower price.

I am trying to be in a 25 year hold on bullion but your analysis is making it very difficult to not try to lower my DCA.

Thanks for the analysis. Only time will prove the accuracy of your prognostications.

Well, let me be clear- I don't profess to have a crystal ball, none at whatsoever. I am only a long time student of the markets. I follow the trends and what the tape is saying, what price and volume are telling me. I put aside my bias and personal opinion. In the end, the markets are ALWAYS right and I adhere to what they say.

I will ride that trend until it starts to show those clues and subtle hints that the trend is starting to change. I am a trend following trader and momentum driven. In the case of silver and gold, I have no emotional feelings towards them and that goes for any asset class, I don't care if its the Singapore dollar, Brent Crude, hogs, sugar, Thailand equities, the USD, corporate bonds, I dont care what it is..... if there is a strong trend that is in place or developing, thats all I care.

The minute I start to predict exact prices and direction of an asset class without listening to price action, that is the end of me and I wont let that happen.

In the case of silver and gold, the trend is down and its a strong one. As one trader I know says, the burden of proof is on the asset, in this case, gold and silver, they are guilty until proven innocent in regards to their current trend which is down. It is on silver and gold to prove they are ready to change.

.... and yes, I most certainly encourage anyone reading this- IF you have profits, book something... maybe a half, a quarter, all of it. Thats up to you in the end but take some off the table. You can always buy back later at lower prices or even at higher prices provided gold and silver confirm the move higher is real. In any case, you would raise cash, to which you could at least park some and do nothing or use the proceeds to do something else. After all, one has bought gold and silver with the expectation to make profits and that is how the game is played.


BTW- I realize that might be a hard concept to grasp but at this time, I would really only look at gold and silver until they made yearly highs to buy them back, giving complete confirmation that they were being solidly being bought by funds.

I might add.... as a scenario, its possible that this downtrend drags out over time. What if this took multiple years alone to retrace its entire move? Do you realize that in order to move back to its yearly and historical highs, it will have to go through the various price levels it has dropped through, which will take time.... not to mention that BEFORE it moves to those levels, it could very well trade in a very narrow range for a long long time.


At this time, these are all the wild cards we must look at. For now, its best to break everything into levels price wise as it allows us to be flexible and ready to move whether we have a change in trade or continuation.

As I have repeated over and over and over and over and over.... be PATIENT and allow TIME to let things play out. In the meantime, if you must buy, nibble, but only at coins that carry numismatic value, proof gold and silver that have dropped in price.