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Physical Bullion Demand On Fire

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Pillar of the Community
United States
505 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2013  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Frazzle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Any sort of post apocalyptic world the detestation would be unfathomable for our modern technology dependent society.


I couldnt agree more..If youre preparing for an apocalypse,then Guns,Ammo,Batteries and Food would better serve you...If youre talking an economic downturn,where governments are still in charge,then Gold and silver will be just fine
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Northerncoins's Avatar
Canada
2019 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  6:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Northerncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
TexMetals Update on supply issues. Interesting to say the least.




Quote:
Update, 4/22/13:
Dear TexMetals Customers:

As you all know, it has been a remarkable (and historic) week in the metals market, with metals prices falling precipitously. In the past two weeks, we have sold over 350,000 ozs of silver and 11,000 ozs of gold, which (as you can tell from our website) has placed an enormous strain on inventory levels, not to mention our loyal staff. As of today, we are completely sold out of silver. The purpose of this letter is to update you on inventory levels and the state of the physical market from our vantage point.



Quote:
The physical silver market is, in a word, ugly. There is no telling at this point when mint inventories will return to normal, but you can be sure it will not happen within the next 8 weeks. Most dealers, at this point, are selling their current customer demand forward, meaning they are selling product they do not presently have, expecting to pull from future mint allocations. Consequently, future allocations will face pressure from today's demand. It is not my intent here to comment on the business practices of other companies, but I will say that no one can possibly predict future allocations at the time. The US mint, for example, releases its allocations weekly, and until then, dealers have no insight into allocation levels. Last week, we turned away business in excess of 100,000 ozs of silver because of stock depletion. However, we stand by the notion that it is better to lose a sale than lose a customer by delaying delivery two months (or more).




Quote:
Here is what we know about future inventories:

US MINT: Like most government institutions, the US Mint is highly unreliable. This week, we will take delivery of only 13,000 silver eagles. These coins will post for sale on Tuesday, April 23rd, at 8am CST, and ship as early as Friday**. On the week of April 29th, we will offer a minimum of 21,000 silver eagles, which will also post for sale on the Tuesday of the week. Subsequently, based on corporate agreements, minimum weekly allocations will not dip below 20,000 coins. Unfortunately, due to the extreme supply/demand constraints imposed on our business by the shortage of product, we will be offering eagles in monster box form (500 coins) only until allocations exceed demand. Coin premiums will be higher than normal, but our aim is to keep these premiums as far below market rate as possible.

On gold, there is some tightness in the Gold Buffalo series, but as of the writing of this message, Eagles are in fair supply.

CANADIAN MINT: As mentioned in an earlier posting, the Canadian Mint has been under pressure to meet demand because of the small eagles allocations and because of the minting disruption caused by the Wildlife Series last month. It will be weeks before the mint catches up to demand. We will receive, at a minimum, 10,000 silver maples weekly until allocations return to normal. Depending on logistics concerns, these will post either Tuesday or Wednesday on a first come, first serve basis. Like the eagles, we will be offering maples in monster box form only until allocations exceed demand.

We have large orders in place now for 100 oz RCM bars (1-2 weeks out).

On gold, the Canadian Mint is behind on its production of gold maples, but we expect to have more in stock Thursday or Friday of this week.

Perth Mint: The Perth Mint is the only government mint (Australia) that runs its operation like a business. It is one of the primary reasons we promote Perth so heavily. The Perth Mint has swiftly and dramatically increased production to meet demand, and therefore supplies of Perth Mint 1 oz and 10 oz bars, as well as Kangaroos, are in very large supply. We have at least two gold shipments due to arrive this week. If there are any supply constraints, it may appear on fractional gold coins, but it will be only a temporary disruption.

The Perth Mint, unlike the USM and RCM, does not produce a silver monster box. However, we have 15,000 ozs of 10 oz Kookaburra and Kilo Koala coins due to arrive on Tuesday, April 29th.

TEXAS ROUNDS: We sold out of all 50,000 Texas Rounds from our initial mint run in four (4) days. We have another 25,000-30,000 rounds being minted this week, and subsequent runs will continue every other week indefinitely.





https://www.texmetals.com/us-mint-s...s-allocation
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nalaberong's Avatar
Canada
2805 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  7:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add nalaberong to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
It's highly questionable that members of this forum would have utility in a post apocalyptic world.

Ouch.
Edited by nalaberong
04/22/2013 7:46 pm
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  8:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Lol it was kind of harsh. I would put it in a more gentle way that people think theyre a lot more prepared than they really are if it happened. Theres absolutely no way to actually prepare for it other than to have it happen. In a lot of ways its like war, plans work until the first shot is fired
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  9:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Last time I check one of the most basic rules to economical supply and demand is this....

When there are more sellers then buyers the prices drop. When there is more buyers then sellers the price rises. The fact that it appears PHYISCAL silver is deviating from spot price and apparantly hard to find in many areas (or any selection of silver worth buying anyhow), which tells me real simply the price could very well start to rise again....

Now then I know the actual phyiscal trading has little to do with the bigger market picture, or does it?
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  11:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
he fact that it appears PHYISCAL silver is deviating from spot price and apparantly hard to find in many areas (or any selection of silver worth buying anyhow), which tells me real simply the price could very well start to rise again....


I honestly havent noticed it being hard to find at all. Theres over 300k listings on ebay. Its out there if youre willing to give the people the same money they paid for it a month ago.

I blame the mints some too. They can make them faster than they are if they really wanted, but they dont want too. They want to slow sales so the other Eagles dont get canceled again for all bullion versions. Plus they barely make anything off the bullion coins theyd rather pump out 250k special sets for 3-4 times spot than a couple million eagles
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Solidifier's Avatar
Canada
814 Posts
 Posted 04/22/2013  11:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Solidifier to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
thats what these coins and bars are for....."For When You Have To Get Out of Dodge"

http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_stagecoach.php
Valued Member
cjspearsdog's Avatar
United States
405 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  12:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cjspearsdog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Solidifier..........those are pretty cool, I just ordered ten
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SA4H's Avatar
United States
2764 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  3:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SA4H to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thank you Northerncoins for sharing the info.... good insight into the physical world.
Regarding baseball21 comment: I agree with you that if you are willing to pay higher price then you will pretty much always have the product you need (like winning an auction).

The main focus here is that in normal market, the premium for official world mint is in the range of $2 to $5 coin (commonly in the $3 range). However, as price (paper) drop, physical demand increase. Because of the physical demand increase, premium increased (it's the true market function in action). IF everyone are committed to only pay spot plus $2 then with enough pressure from the buyer, the premium will have to come down (which is not the case - currently happening as well as past major price drop).

Regarding supply of physical PM: It's true to some degree that we are NOT running out of physical PM. However, we are running short on physical silver that's in the form that most people want. I am sure generic bars in 100 & 1000 ozt are not in short supply. The main problem is when paper price drop, more people jump in and buy physical PM in the form of ASE/SML/Philharmonic/Libertad/etc..... all of these coins need a longer process to make (the mint must get their 1ozt blank from manufacturers, which must create those .9999 rounds from either silver ores or from 1000 ozt .999 bullion bars, which required them to be refined first).

If consider all the physical silver above ground as in all the people's storage/home + companies' warehouse + vaults + other storage methods then we are NOT in short supply. It's the manufacturer/sourcer of the high-demand physical PM that's short in supply.

So? Don't buy into the hype of physical PM in short supply and pay extra premium for your PM. Carefully consider all the cost and put a fix premium on top of spot price when buying. If you are consistent with this approach then over the long run, you will average out your acquisition costs. Another way to consider is how much $$ you save per ozt when you a buying now vs when spot price was over $30?

Lastly, physical PM (above ground reserve) is not hitting zero or depleting at lighting speed. As demand increase, price increase, productions will increase also. It's the cheaper physical PM that's running low (harder to find/buy 90% silver at close to face or find in rolls); more and more people recognize and value PM, which mean they are creating a floor-price for PM.

My other thought: Spot price will rise slowly in 6 months or so. As price rise, demand will ease (people don't rush in to buy physical PM and would tend to pace their purchase out), supply/production will catch up ===> premium will drop down to its normal range. So, unless there's major market movement, I will expect to pay about the same $$ for 1oz ASE/SML then, compare to now. As always, if I find a source that's selling any ASE/SML/Libertad/etc for spot plus $2 then I will stop all my other spending to buy as many as I can.....

Happy hunting (for pm deals).
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  3:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with a lot of what SA4H said. We definitely are short on the minted coins, which is what I call a perceived shortage as opposed to a real one. With a real shortage there wouldnt be anymore on the way. Instead they just arent putting them out fast enough. Its like when the new xbox or iphone comes out. You cant find it anyway for a little bit but after some time theyre everywhere. A huge drop or rise in price creates those types of buyers that have to have it right then and there. They generally arent the type that consistently buy over time. After that initial rush wears off things will normalize to the new prices.

One of the biggest issues with the manufactured shortage is too many people do take that to mean that silver is running out period which its not which doesn't force sellers to really drop their prices. If their sales were sluggish they would adjust much faster. If the Mints really wanted to they could pump out a few million of the ASEs Maples ect and catch up to the market and calm things down, they have little to no interest in that though since those coins arent really money makers for them and theyd be sacrificing their real money makers to do so.

I think its important for people to remember that what happens in a couple days doesn't create the new standard. Just like the Iphone that has a huge premium when it first comes out those buyers being the first in line after an event are paying a hefty premium right now.
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harrison2's Avatar
Mexico
1304 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  6:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add harrison2 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
With the primiums being so crazy nowadays, the primiums on those are comparibly low!
Valued Member
JSH's Avatar
United States
410 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  8:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JSH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I been wondering about whether there really is a shortage of physical inventory or if dealers are just holding inventory off the market. Take TexMetal's claim posted above. They claim to have sold 350,000 oz of silver and 11,000 oz of gold. Given the price before the recent drop that is $9.8M in silver and $17.4 million in gold. That would mean that they hold $27 million in inventory. That seems to be very high to me.

The other thing that makes me suspicious is that if stock is in such short supply to justify high premiums shouldn't they be offering a premium to sellers? If you look at their silver buffalo rounds buy prices they are offering spot + $0.10. That price would tell me that they aren't having any trouble finding silver to buy. ASE's are buy @ spot +1.75 sell for $28 which is suspiciously the same price as spot before the big drop.

It is the same deal over at kitco. Kitco will pay you $22.40 for a 1 oz Philharmonic and sell you one for $27.34. Kitco isn't even offering spot to buy your silver but they would like you to believe that physical silver is hard to find.

Of course this makes sense to me. If I was a dealer sitting on silver that I paid $28 / oz for and suddenly the price dropped 20% I would pull the majority of my inventory off the market and only sell what I needed to pay my bills. Why sell it all especially if you don't know when you will get replacement stock.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  9:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've wondered that as well
Pillar of the Community
United States
511 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  9:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 3stooges to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Keep this simple equation in mind.

Spot = theory Physical = reality

If spot fell to $10 tomorrow, does anyone think they could buy silver at $14 or $15/ounce? Spot is an easily manipulated paper price used by those who trade "naked shorts", as in futures contracts not backed by real silver.
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JSH's Avatar
United States
410 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2013  10:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JSH to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Spot is also what any dealer is going to reference when they make an offer to buy your physical metal. As we have seen lately, when there is a big drop dealers charge spot+big premium for buyers and spot or spot-discount for sellers. Either way, spot is the starting point.
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