Confession Of An Ex-Stacker

Bekiz, you act as if the only two investment options you have are cash or PM's. There a a whole host of other options out there and tons of "productive assets". For a small fee you can purchase shares of General Electric, John Deere, Caterpillar, etc. For a even smaller fee you could buy a S&P 500 index fund and own a little bit the 500 largest companies in the US. If you like real estate but can't afford you own rental you could purchase a REIT that invests in rental properties or any other category of real estate you are interested in.

PM's are a crap shoot. In 15 years when your daughter is ready to go to college your PM's could be worth a fortune or almost nothing. You say you got into PM's in 2010. Take a look at the history of PM's. The last time PM's had a good run like they have had lately PM's came crashing back down and stayed flat for decades. There is a reason that Kitco starts their silver history charts in 1985.

I'm also interested to see what would happen to PM prices if China relaxed their investment restrictions. Right now Chinese investors are not allowed to invest outside the country. Their options are to put their money in the bank and see it disappear due to high inflation, buy real estate which is in a huge bubble, buy Chinese stock which are tied to corrupt government companies, or buy PM's. So far the Chinese seem to favor real estate and PM's. I've seen estimates that China buys as much as 20% of the world's total gold. What happens to all that gold if the Chinese decide to let their people invest in the rest of the world?

you are 100% wrong with your zero estimate



I have three options: business, PM, fiat.
Sorry, no equities, no bonds, no other papers.
as of business I'm either own at least 30% of it or I'm out. (of course I'm not talking about corporations or alike).
I don't like shares of any company currently because all of them are inflated ... all of them rely on zero interest rates ... most of them rely on continuous consumption which is draining day after day and will continue its path.

I know one thing: PM were and are here for several thousands years. Name me any company that survived that long and I'll allocate good share of what I have to it.

This is useless debate ... those who lived in times of Weimar and Great Depression knew where to keep the money ... those who witnessed the collapse of USSR know as well. Me being the witness of the fall of Soviet empire know where to go, and who will be honored ... You think the case with US is different? Good luck to you.


P.S. I have 20-25% allocated to PMs. I sleep way better than when I had the same money staying in equities (like Monsanto, DuPont, several hi-tech, CAT) ... The onyl thing I worry today - what will happen to fiat in my account not PMs.


P.P.S. looks like they are finally destroying the hands holding PMs ))

I watched Cloud Atlas and really liked it and here is a quote that applys to our daily thoughts and actions, the choices which govern our lives....

"Belief, like fear or love, is a force to be understood as we understand the theory of relativity and principals of uncertainty. Phenomena that determine the course of our lives. Yesterday, my life was headed in one direction. Today, it is headed in another. Yesterday, I believe I would never have done what I did today. These forces that often remake time and space, that can shape and alter who we imagine ourselves to be, begin long before we are born and continue after we perish. Our lives and our choices, like quantum trajectories, are understood moment to moment. That each point of intersection, each encounter, suggest a new potential direction."

The most successful species over the longest period of time all showed one common trait....

The ability to adapt/evolve to a new situation....

They say about 65 million years back a 500 pound hoofed wolf life creature began hunting dead fish along the shore as its food source had run dry inland....

Next generations over the next hundreds of years had lost their hair and taken on skin similar to a seal, and their nose had closed over and webbing had formed inbetween toes, as well as a protective shield formed over the lens of the eyes and they now chased and caught live fish. Next few generations (the baby a little bit different or evolved from parent) fused legs and the back bone changed and eventually a tale formed....

Sure it took about 20 million years and science does have each species logged in between (Dried up ocean bed found in Iran where each fossil was found) from the wolf to the whale, but never the less it went from the land BACK to the sea. A manatee was a prehistoric cow like creature they say, as was a dolphin I have little doubt....

The best investors change with the times, as many of you have adapted into new things as pms tumble......

Man, this is going to be hard! I woke this morning to discover that silver had dropped to around $22.20 and I had an e-mail from Goldmart informing me that they now had my favorite 100-ounce J&M silver bars back in stock at $0.89 over spot.

Must. Be. Strong.

Wow, you don't ask for much do you? :) I can't give you a company with a thousand year history but I can give you some with hundreds.

Husqvarna AB: Founded in 1689 in Huskvarna, Sweden. They originally made weapons for the King of Sweden but now make outdoor power equipment. I've visited the original location dozens of times.

Mosdorfer Gmbh: Founded in 1712 as a blacksmith shop making weapons, now they are a global supplier to the electrical utility industry. You can't buy stock though, they have been family owned for 12 generations.

I'm sure they are older companies but these are just two that I have personally done business with.




Personally I think you are setting the bar too low. You seem to have given up on the idea of making money and are content just not to lose money. We could talk again in 5 years but I'm sure even if gold has fallen to $100 per ounce the gold bugs will still be saying how it just about to turn around.

Why are you ignoring the last crash in PM's? You have stated that you are saving for your daughters college education in 15 or so years. If PM's follow the same pattern they did last time your investment will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now when you need to liquidate it and pay for her education. I would think that recent history is much more relevant to the goal of saving for college than ancient history. The price of gold in a thousand years doesn't matter, what matters is the price in 15-20 years.

First yes the US is different, we arent Turkey or Greece or any of the corrupt Asian countries or on the brink of the collapse like the USSR. You say things change and things are different then lump us in with 2nd and 3rd world economies as an example, it does apply. I honestly dont care what PMs do in Turkish money I would never be buying them in Turks.

Second you should read what I wrote. There is 0 ASSURANCE that it will go up. You very clearly stated in your first post that you have a great chance of making money on it in the future which isn't true. 0 assurance that it will go up means theres absolutely nothing that assures that it will be higher which is true, not a guarantee it will be lower even though thats likely.