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Posted 11/03/2013 7:50 pm
The destruction of moderns is remarkably high. Virtually all varieties that don't appear in mint sets are scarce or rare because people aren't looking. The exceptions are those that get found soon after issue and then reported in the hobby press. These get scooped up even before most get into circulation. But very few people checked coins at all between 1965 and 1998 so the scarce coins circulated freely. Even now they aren't being checked very well and some great finds get made.
In the future we'll see most dime and quarter varieties are scarce above F condition and much more available in low grade. More than half of the earliest clad has been lost forever and if people don't start looking even fewer of the varieties will be available.
It's worse with pennies. These don't circulate so they don't wear but they corrode in change jars and get banged up on sidewalks. The attrition is enormous because they aren't often retrieved if they are dropped. They end up in landfills and burnt up in munincipal incinerators. Attrition on '80's copper is enormous and zincs are even higher since they never had value. Now copper is being separated out for its metallic value and 98% of the copper pennies will never be checked to see if there are any dates after 1982. They'll just be melted. While it's illegal to melt these now, it's a safe bet many already are because copper is easy to melt and many people don't need large amounts.
I'd guess fewer than 10% of 1982 zinc pennies are still in collectible condition. Most of these are nice VF to AU+. Uncs are a tiny fraction of this and Gems a tiny fraction of Uncs. Any '83 copper in circulation has only about a 25% chance of still existing but the attrition will soar as soon as the melting ban is lifted. Like the other modern varieties, most will probably end up never being found.
In the future we'll see most dime and quarter varieties are scarce above F condition and much more available in low grade. More than half of the earliest clad has been lost forever and if people don't start looking even fewer of the varieties will be available.
It's worse with pennies. These don't circulate so they don't wear but they corrode in change jars and get banged up on sidewalks. The attrition is enormous because they aren't often retrieved if they are dropped. They end up in landfills and burnt up in munincipal incinerators. Attrition on '80's copper is enormous and zincs are even higher since they never had value. Now copper is being separated out for its metallic value and 98% of the copper pennies will never be checked to see if there are any dates after 1982. They'll just be melted. While it's illegal to melt these now, it's a safe bet many already are because copper is easy to melt and many people don't need large amounts.
I'd guess fewer than 10% of 1982 zinc pennies are still in collectible condition. Most of these are nice VF to AU+. Uncs are a tiny fraction of this and Gems a tiny fraction of Uncs. Any '83 copper in circulation has only about a 25% chance of still existing but the attrition will soar as soon as the melting ban is lifted. Like the other modern varieties, most will probably end up never being found.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
