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 Replies: 13 / Views: 1,618 |
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
Looking at the grey sheet, the values for some years are significantly higher from others, although the mintage is sometimes about the same, or higher.
For example (looking at G grade):
1901 (mintage 8.9M) - 24$
1905 (mintage 5.0M) - 24$
While,
1906 (mintage 3.7M) - 7$
1896 (mintage 3.9M) - 8.5$
1899-S (mintage 0.7M) - 22$
Is there a known reason for this difference?
Did a significantly lower amount of 1901/1905 quarters survived for some reason? Edited by supgog
11/17/2013 7:01 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5825 Posts |
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Did a significantly lower amount of 1901/1905 quarters survived for some reason? You probably answered your own question. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1511 Posts |
 estimated surviving populations |
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Pillar of the Community
 Israel
2420 Posts |
OK.. But why did a significantly smaller number of these survived comparing to other years?
Besides, PCGS's survival estimate for 1901 is 15K (at all grades), while only 8K for 1906..
Looking at the PCGS price guide, there's no difference in value (13$) for G 1894-1909.
Maybe the greysheet is just way off?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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But why did a significantly smaller number of these survived comparing to other years? Check old economic charts if you can find them. It probably has to do with the economy where money was used more in better periods. The 1800s ones may have been saved more after the turn of the century too. My other guess is the 01 and 05 were viewed as common and nothing special for so long they ended up becoming a lot less common. Edited by basebal21
11/17/2013 8:14 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
Quote:
My other guess is the 01 and 05 were viewed as common and nothing special for so long they ended up becoming a lot less common. Thanks basebal21, but I'm starting to think it's just inaccurate price quote from the grey sheet. PCGS's survival estimates are: 2K - 1899-S 15K - 1901 8k - 1905 8k - 1906 PCGS also assigns 1905 and 1901 the same value as 1894-1909 (P mint), and from what I saw on ebay ended auctions, it seems to be closer to reality. This raises more questions: Does dealers pay these based on the grey sheet? If they are, can't one buy these years online and sell it to them for a profit? Edited by supgog
11/18/2013 3:15 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
New hypothesis:
1901/1905 are priced significantly higher as it's quite hard to find a 1901 quarter from any mint (1901-O G4 listed at 60$ and 1901-S at 3700$) and same story (although with lower figures) for 1905.
This means that a collector seeking to make a date collection would have to buy the P mint which is the cheapest for this years and thus it has higher demand.
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
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OK.. But why did a significantly smaller number of these survived comparing to other years?
To expand a little on my one-line post from the last time we talked about Barber quarters a few days ago: The first decade of the 1900's was a heady time to be an American. The massive recession caused by the Panic of 1893 had abated and starting in 1898 unemployment had cratered to less than 5% from the high of nearly 15% in 1894. The Klondike Gold Rush captivated the nation's attention with stories of miners becoming rich in a moment. Theodore Roosevelt became President and enjoyed huge popularity for his anti-corporate attitudes and actions; the average American felt more confident about their position than they had in a decade. Yet, industry prospered too; in 1905 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was climbing through the roof, as were the assets of trust companies and banks. People were confident, wages were rising, and it was easy to spend money. A Quarter was the rough hourly wage. This all came to a crashing halt as the economy tipped into recession in early 1907, followed later that year by the Panic of 1907, in which it can be argued that J.P. Morgan personally saved the US economy. It could have been far worse, but the honeymoon was over and people started hoarding cash. |
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
Thanks SDave for the detailed explanation :), but it still doesn't quite answer the question.
Unless PCGS's survival estimate are far off, why does the 1901, with twice as many survivors, compared to 1906, will be valued at more than 3 times the price (grey sheet prices)?
Why does PCGS price guide shows no difference in value between the two?
One of the price guides is inaccurate, big time.
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Moderator
United States
23522 Posts |
My guess is PCGS survival numbers don't track reality. Not sure what they *do* track, but it ain't nuthin' on the ground.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4337 Posts |
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My guess is PCGS survival numbers don't track reality. That's not a reassuring thought. Their rarity rating scale is based on survival numbers, no? Also, is greysheet more of a moving market indicator that is as ever changing as it is due to reported dealer/wholesale activity? If this is a true statement Sup, than it could simply be current "market" sentiment that creates the discrepancies you feel you're seeing. |
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Moderator
United States
23522 Posts |
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That's not a reassuring thought. Their rarity rating scale is based on survival numbers, no?
Well, as much as I normally disparage "published" price lists, Greysheet is based on sales realities - it's an important tool for professionals - and it's actively researched/updated by people with a vested interest in accuracy. So if (as per supgog's own research) they disagree with something PCGS publishes (or implies), I'm going with Greysheet and theorizing how reality fits into what they've shown. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3486 Posts |
Oh, boy, let me comment.
Yes, the actual survival rate for a given year and mint is more important than ANY price guide.
A few of us use the term "Throw the Grey Sheet OUT!" when it comes to a given coin that only a specialist in the series knows intimately.
The 1896 Philadelphia dime? NOT COMMON AT ALL! One of my favorite dealers thanks me often for teaching him this tidbit.
PLEASE! Go to the Barber coin site that is cited in my signature and search through our
surveys. Limited to members and others who found us on the Internet, it nevertheless
gives some direction as to survival rates.
As for TGP, I do not think that their data is at all accurate. But that is just me.
Hope this helps.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
I would just add that availability also has to be considered when determining price as well as interest. If people like a year and mint mark more it could just simply cost more even if mintage would suggest otherwise. Same thing with availability. Survival is important for long term price trends but if someone is buying up a lot of a date as long as they sit on their hoard it becomes rare for that time frame.
Whether or not either of those things are playing a large role here I haven't looked into the availability enough to comment. There are unpredictable variables though for price.
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Replies: 13 / Views: 1,618 |
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Posted 11/17/2013 11:20 am
