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Seriously though, my interest was renewed in coin and stamp issues over the last few years as I see them being phased out in the next decade or maybe sooner. I see them going the same way as phone cards (and the phone booths themselves) which were 95% phased out quickly and without much warning.
It is a fallacy to think that just because something is old and obsolete, that makes it valuable. The law of supply and demand makes things valuable. If there is no demand, it does not matter how rare something is; if no-one wants it, it is not valuable.
Consider two things which were once commonplace everyday objects but are now obsolete: swords and oil lamps. How many people today have ever even seen a sword, or an oil lamp, let alone owned one? Very few. The "collector base" for such things is virtually nil; only a few eccentrics collect them. Their value is, therefore, much lower than one might expect for old, obsolete things.
Once coinage itself becomes functionally obsolete and a generation comes along that knows not what these "coin" things are, then collecting coins will no longer be a "normal" part of civilization. Only a few eccentrics will collect coins, and prices will go down, or up much slower than you might otherwise expect.
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I believe that the coins and stamps of the next decade will be historical rarities for my descendants and hopefully worth a buck or two in 100 years time.
Examine the hundred-year-old things that are truly valuable, in whatever collectables field you might have an interest in, and you will find a common thread: the things that are most valuable tend to be the things that nobody thought were worth keeping. A good case in point, for coins, are 1927 florins. Everybody kept the Canberra florin, so they're cheap and readily available in mint condition. Virtually nobody kept "normal" 1927 florins, so they're much more valuable compared to Canberra florins in the same condition, despite having a much higher mintage.
So if you want to find things that will be valuable in 100 years time, find things that (a) are physically capable of lasting for 100 years - I personally have my doubts about the survivability of slabbed coins, PNCs and bimetallic coins - and (b) despite being survivable, nobody is trying to keep them. The Canberra florin teaches us that things specifically made to be kept are less likely to become valuable. The 1934-5 florin teaches us the exception: if numbers produced are so small and demand so great that the law of supply and demand outweighs the simple fact that virtually all of them have survived in mint condition.
With 1934-5 florins, which are the truly valuable ones? The ones that are still in the little Foys bags they were sold in. Why? Back to the first rule: nobody back then thought keeping the bag would be important to future value, so virtually nobody kept the bag.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
hopefully to avoid having to do it myself) to see what the outlay would be to buy all the various RAM themed and NCLT coins each year? I have only bought a small portion of coins issued this year (including some PNCs) and can't believe how much I have spent for 2013.
Posted 12/11/2013 8:56 pm
