Questions About The 2012 US Mint Silver Proof Set

The unexpected sellout of the 2012 Clad and Silver full Proof Sets in February 2013 caught a lot of would-have-been buyers off guard. Previous years' sets had remained available from the Mint for several months into the succeeding year (ie: the 2011 full Silver Proof Sets were still available from the Mint in June 2012).

Add the low mintages of the 2012 Clad/Silver full Proof Sets, and the fact that many were broken up by dealers during 2012 (who, again, did not expect a 'common' product such as a Proof Set to sell out early), and you have a "perfect storm".

The 2012 Silver Quarters Proof Set remained available well into 2013, so the 2012 Silver Proof JFK Half and Dime (under 450k mintage each) are the premium coins. The 2012 Proof Native American dollar was also available only in the full 2012 Clad or Silver Proof Sets.

The day the 2012 Silver Proof Set sold out (Feb. 4th, 2013), I ordered a 2012 Clad Proof Set from the Mint. Those sold out the next day.

The 2008 full Clad Proof Set is another early sell-out (Dec. 2008), and it has a nice secondary premium as well (although well behind the 2012 Clad and Silver Proof Sets in that respect).

In a word, Luck.

As a rule modern sets are speculative beginning right after they sell out for up to about ten years later. Typically most sets experience a small spike and then shortly drop below issue price. Those that have something unusual happen such as a low mintage, early sales cut off (even if the mintage isn't that low), a first or last year of a series etc tend to jump much higher and then stay there for several years before starting to drift lower. Usually after about ten years they settle into a value that appears to be the long term "real" value. The 2012 silver set is high right now but will that value hold? Hard to say. It does have an unusually low mintage in its favor. But the 1999 and 2001 sets were unusually low for their time too and they initially jumps up to the $300 range and stayed there for many years. But today they have drifted back down to a round $100. The 1995 clad set for some reason jumped through the roof too for half a dozen years or more getting up to around $150. Today after 15+ years it's an eight dollar set. What will the 2012 silver set do? Probably follow the trend and drop to a lower level eventually. But I would expect it to remain a premium set selling higher than the other years around it.

One other trend to consider. Usually when a winner comes out, the next year everyone tends to jump on the bandwagon hoping for a repeat. This usually means the year following a winner is a loser. The year after that a lot of people who got burned jumping on the bandwagon get disgusted and jump back off. This often makes the set two years after a winner a better set as well.

DNA and Conder101: Thanks for the thorough explanation and insights.

CoinCollector2012: Yep, I was lucky, too (as Conder101 pointed out). But then again, I purchase a Silver Proof Set every year.

Thanks again,
KTO

KTO - the 'First Strike' destination is given from a grading company meaning that the coin was struck & graded within the first 30 days of the coin being released from the Mint. It has nothing to do with how many times the coin was struck.

Grade within the first 30 days, has nothing to do with when the coin was actually struck. Some "first strikes" come from dies at the END of their useful life. And in some case the "first strike" coins were struck months before their release date. "First Strike" designations are just a marketing gimmick.

Yeah, I personally don't agree with what they consider first strike. BUT past performance does show that these do hold a premium. So I really do think it is a wise investment. I figure ever year I will buy $2,500 worth. That way every year after two or three years a will have a group of new inventory. My only regret is not starting a year or two earlier.