The old holder problem presents at least one obvious dilema: If the point of paying a premium for old holders is that coins used to be graded more conservatively, why would anyone leave their coins in an old holder - including the dealer who sold it? I mean the price for a 1921 MS65
Peace dollar, for example, is now around $2000 - $2500 depending on the actual coin's state of preservation. If a current MS65 exists in an old MS64 holder (valued at around $800 - $1000 if Coin Values is to be credited) why would anyone leave the coin in the old 64 holder? "Anyone" includes the dealer who sold it to you.
There is an article on the PCGS website about why grading is important. The gist of the article is, it's important because the
TPG's have made it reasonable to buy coins WITHOUT EVER SEEING THEM. According to the article, this is the principle explanation of the explosion in value of the rare coin market. So, according to PCGS, the substantial majority of coin buyers - the ones PCGS cares about anyway - are not collectors, but "investors." That sounded familiar to me:
My grandfather started accumulating silver coins after 1964 when dimes, quarters and halves started being made out of less than 90% silver. My grandfather was a person who believed that the change in our coinage was the clear indication of a coming World Economic Crisis, and that when the world economy collapsed, the only thing of value would be "precious" metals. So my grandfather became an "investor" (they called them "hoarders" then), So, he bought up - among other things - what turned out to be a complete set of
Morgan dollars, signt unseen, from mail order catalogues that purport to have "Premium BU" examples of every date and m/m at ridiculously low prices. Since this was before 1986, that was the way unscrupulous dealers (I almost called them "people") made money selling coins sight-unseen. Of course not a single one of those dollars was actually "Premium BU" or even uncirculated at all. Most were AU's and EF45's. Several had been dipped. But my grandfather never even thought to question the grades, so when he passed away, his children were only able to liquidate my grandfather's "collection" at a huge financial loss. (These mail-order coin dealers are still out there preying upon new collectors/investors mostly. HINT: If you buy a "MS67" coin on
ebay for $200, which is listed in some price guide as being worth $5,000 - you've been had). But the
TPG's have created a new and more sophisticated way to sell crummy coins to naive collectors: put them in high grade slabs.
This is not to say that PCGS, NGC or ANACS (ok, IGC too) holders all have crummy coins. They don't. Most of the coins I have seen in holders from those companies have been, in my opinion, correctly graded. But, as most people who've been collecting for more than 10 mintes probably know, there are dozens of other
TPG's that specialize in overgrading and slabbing coins so that unscrupulous dealers can get rid of mediocre, problem coins at high grade premiums.
So it seems to me, if you want to pay a premium for an "OGH" or the like, don't crack it out. The added value - and if people will pay for it, it is value - is in the holder, not the coin.