Is The Modern Coin Market On The Verge Of Dying?

@tkbslc - that's not exactly true. It's not as simple as that. All markets need promotion and support. Take the Baseball Hall of Fame coin. Classic pump and dump scheme. This in turn, pushes people out of the hobby. Like I said in the article. Far more nice Morgan dollars exist than PQ Ikes. The Morgan brought scant pennies over face as recently as the 1960s. Why did that change? Do your research. Promotion and support- education- and the resulting collector enthusiasm.

Thank you for sharing your article. Definitely something worthy of discussion.

One of my future (long term) goals is to build a second Eisenhower dollar set in high grade. Perhaps waiting will make that set more affordable. Of course, waiting has its own problems (you know, waiting is no joy).

@shadz

The Baseball Hall of Fame coin was pumped up by dealers, who reaped insane profits, and then dumped (as in, they are no longer interested in the coin) now that the entire mintage has been released.

when I mention promotion, I also mention a group called the National Silver Dollar Roundtable... this was a group of dealers, who worked together to promote the benefits of collecting Morgan dollars. They created the market in them. The market that you know now, regarding Morgan dollars, was created by coin dealers. It was common as dirt- but became collectible due to their concerted efforts to make collectors want to buy them.

the same can't be said about modern coins, in general. Many dealers won't touch them... at any price.

I agree that there are more ike collectors now. These collectors are seeing high priced high grade Ike's that collectors are submitting more Ike's. I went to a coin show this weekend where a lot of Ike's in 2x2's were blowed out. One dealer said he didn't know what was going on with the ike market, they have been selling well latley

Great article; as is typical for Morgan and Walker.

I'm really not in the least concerned about the modern market because the modern market was never defined by the passionate collectors who sought high grade moderns before the services ever existed and it was never defined by the collectors and speculators who competed to form registry sets. These collectors could in theory have defined thesae markets but in the real world it's the little guy building sets and upgrading who invent the markets. It's the little guys whose total effect eliminate the supplies. The little guy has always invented the world and it is he who will inherit it.




Yes. I've been watching this same thing on the wholesale level for months. Selling into the wholesale strenght might not be a wise move this time because unbeknownst to most collectors and most dealers the raw supply of Ikes is severely depleted. The mint sets have been cut up abnd the rolls that contain any decent coins are used up. Any further increases in demand at this point is going to push up wholesale prices. Even modest new demand could have significant impact.

Whether this happens or not is anyone's guess. If it does then there will also be a tendency for many little collectors to want to immediately upgrade poor specimens before more price increases. This will push even nicer MS-63 pieces far higher because the supply of nicer Ikes can be extremely limited.

Yes, I expect more pressure on high end prices before any sort of recovery. A lot of modern bashers have always pointed at the large discrepancy between MS-64 and MS-65 prices as proof the coins were overvalued. We'll see this gap close with modest declines in high grades and big increases in lower grades. But this upgrading will go on for a long time and eventually scarce high grades will be seen to be very scarce and even the "little guys" (who might not be so little in ten years) will push these prices to never before seen levels.

Of course everything depends on TOTAL demand and this depends on the bottom end of the market rather than top end.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out but one thing is certain; these markets are continuing to grow and even the great recession didn't slow them down. Every year there are more collectors and fewer coins.

"We can't know for sure if the Morgan market would have developed into what it is without the help of promoters and speculators."

Tough to compare Morgans with Ike's.
The history that surrounds the Morgan series; Morgan series wins hands down.
As far as varieties goes Ike's can't come close to the number and diversity that the Morgan dollars offer. Huge gouges, acid treated dies, over buffed dies, huge doubling, huge die cracks, denticle impressions, over dates, etc. etc. There is such a multitude for a collector to diverge into that it can offer a lifetime of opportunities. The Ike's not so much.
The diversity that this series offers is the reason it has been so heavily promoted.
Plus Anna is a lot better looking than Ike.

I wouldn't necessarily argue the point but Morgans weren't minted at dawn of the space age, when China awakened from a long slumber, or at the dawn of the computer and internet age either.