1909-S VDB Lincoln-1909-S Indian Head Which Is Rarer?

The Indian, by any measure. A third less minted than the Lincoln, and only about 500 in NGC/PCGS slabs of all types, compared to well over 2,000 Lincolns in those slabs. Rarer in any grade.

Half the price in MS64 Red. Go figure.

Depends whether you mean scarce or rare...1909-S VDBs appear rarer because demand makes them scarcer and more expensive, but 1909-S IHC exist in smaller numbers.

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Half the price in MS64 Red. Go figure.

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DEMAND, baby! Demand! :)

You know, for a while I believed in going after the more rare issues vs higher demand. The thought was people's interests can change, but you can't change how many coins are on the market. If interest plummets in the 1909-S VDB I'm screwed. At the same time, if 3CN's become really hot the one I own will skyrocket. The "demand" for any coin can go up or down, but certain 3CN years will ALWAYS be hard to find.

This logic seems flawless. But then something dawned on me. Even a great deal of NON-collectors have heard of the 1909-S VDB. I remember being 10 years old dreaming about owning one, and this was 23 years ago. I have no idea why it draws such a crowd, but it somehow does and has for years. I also have no idea why 3CN's are so neglected, but they have been for years. One theory I have is that it's nearly impossible to complete a set, since several years are extremely hard to find. Another theory is that we don't use them so people just don't think about them. Maybe it's both.

I realize both supply and demand are equally important. But it almost seems like demand is a stronger driving force than supply. People call it the "Rare Coin Market" but it almost should be called the "Popular Coin Market".

That is a rather good and timely question. I go to about 2 to 4 coin shows a month. I've got several sets of Indian Head cents complete except for the 1856. Set #1 is mostly MS except the 09S so I started a hunt for one at the coin shows. I've always seen the 09S VDB's at coin shows. Some times many, many of then. One dealer not long ago had 10 of them. But the 09S Indian? Difficult to find even one in any condition. I've seen the 09S VDB in many different grades but that evasive Indian 09S, not many in any grade. As already noted I don't think it's the amount minted as much as lack of interest in the Indian cent versus the Lincoln Cent. This would be why so many sell their Lincoln Cents but seldom sell Indian cents. Sometimes it appears that everyone on Earth collects Lincoln Cents and many of them do not collect the Indian cent at all. It is amazing how many books, web sites, articles in coin magazines about Lincoln Cents but Indian cents, not much at all. Now that I think of it I've never seen a book on just Indian cents but sure see a lot of books on Lincolns. I've got two books on Lincolns by a person that is usually on these web sites, coppercoins but no books about Indian cents at all.
Also, there are cars called Lincoln but none called Indian.
Could that have anything to do with it?

yeah the indian is a cooler motorcycle than the lincoln could ever be

Yes, but when it comes to copper small cents it's better to have a red skin than a pale face. :D

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Several experts predict that the value will increase as we approach the 100th anniversary. Hopefully they are right!

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But if the Lincoln Cent is discontinued, after a few years you may see the prices start to fall since it will be an obsolete series and not as many people will begin their collecting life with the Lincolns. It may then herald an increase in interest in the Jeffersons.

If you check gray sheet and other price guides, along with closed auction prices you'll see Lincolns have been very consistently increasing in value, and quickly. Every time a new issue of CDN is released I see pluses all over the place in the Lincoln section.