I really think you have rendered a really solid and well reasoned opinion about the origins of your "replica". There are many similar types mostly of Hacienda Tokens that were created from interpretations of verbal descriptions. These are usually classified as Replicas instead of forgeries because they are so poorly executed that the component of fraud seems to be missing.
They can however be quickly converted into a fraud by simply claiming they are somehow genuine or from the period of circulation.
Nice example of the type.