http://www.coinworldtrends.com/cont...&news_id=486Nearly two weeks of continuous trading in the San Francisco area provided market observers with a good look at the current state of the coin market.
First, there was the private "pre-ANA" (American Numismatic Association) show July 21 through July 24 in nearby Santa Clara, which included two days of auction sessions by Superior Galleries of Beverly Hills. Nearly $5 million worth of coins traded hands at this auction.
Two more pre-ANA auctions, with lot viewing and full-day auction sessions, followed, with Bowers and Merena Auctions conducting its sale July 24 and American Numismatic Rarities holding a July 25 auction. More than $15 million in coins were sold at these two auctions, which took place between the Santa Clara show and the
ANA World's Fair of Money in San Francisco.
Heritage Numismatic Auctions, official
ANA auctioneer, conducted auction sessions throughout the five-day convention, with prices realized exceeding $19 million.
An unknown amount of business was transacted on the bourse at the
ANA convention.
Added into the mix of all these auctions and two large shows was the usual pre-show private trading activity, set up in dealer rooms at various hotels, as well as the Professional Numismatists Guild one-day show set up immediately prior to and in conjunction with the
ANA show.
Each of these trading venues impacted the others in terms of cash flows, timing and prices paid. Dealer-to-dealer trading took center stage at the Santa Clara "pre-show" with light collector attendance. Many dealers also noted that collector presence at the
ANA convention was also lacking. However, I observed a mix of great retail (collector) buying from some dealers, while others had a tough time selling to collectors but did respectable wholesale business. Many buyers - dealers included - save most of their cash reserves until the
ANA convention, which often brings unexpected buying opportunities and deals.
Although collector attendance was lower than expected, many heavy-hitter collectors brought their well-stocked checkbooks along, making major purchases as they found interesting coins that fit into their collections. For example, Heritage Galleries announced during PNG Day the sale of one of the 11 known 1838-O
capped bust half dollar dollars, graded Proof 63 by Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America, to a collector for $475,000.
Typically held in conjunction with major conventions, like the summer
ANA show and spring Central States Numismatic Society conventions, PNG Day routinely brings out the crème-de-la-crème of important coins and collectors. Many dealers and collectors of average means avoid PNG Days (admittance is by invitation only), thinking that the material offered is way over their heads. However, it's a wonderful day to view rarities and other superb coins not usually brought out.
Other coins sold in the six- and seven-figure ranges during the
ANA convention. It's obvious that the big-money players are still very active and have full confidence in the market after about a three-year bull run!
On the other end of the spectrum, also selling extremely well are common, circulated, collector coins. One experienced dealer who supplies bulk lots of coins to other dealers says almost all circulated coins are selling very well, even damaged coins. In verification of his report, we are seeing prices continue to creep higher in value in this market segment.
However, middle-of-the-road coins, like semi-better-date silver dollars in low- to mid-Mint State grades, can often be picked off at bargain prices. Other series, like average Mint State Indian Head 5-cent coins, which have experienced their own bull runs, have cooled a bit in activity, leading to beneficial negotiating opportunities for collectors.
Better-date gold coins are still very much sought after, especially Indian Head gold $3 pieces.
Also, early U.S. coins (those minted prior to the advent of the steam presses in about 1836), are definitely very difficult to find, except at major auctions, where the competition to buy them is very intense. However, cleaned pieces, and perceived overgraded pieces, are prevalent. Nice original early coins, struck in copper, silver and gold, with attractive eye-appeal, are trading for premiums that are in some cases quite substantial.
So, after having attended numerous auction lot viewing sessions and auction sessions, after having talked with hundreds of collectors and dealers at these auctions and shows, and after monitoring auction prices and a few important private trades, my view is that the market is still awash with cash, demand is still very strong on the high and low ends of the market, and we're seeing some leveling off in the mid-range series, especially average Mint State 20th century coins.
Early coins, namely pre-1836 coins, are very strong with values that continue to increase.
Seated Liberty coins and
Barber coins are now seeing their share of demand, forcing values for circulated coins in these series higher. But we're experiencing a healthy leveling off and stabilization of mid-range coins. All things considered, this is probably just a temporary lull for these coins.
The market is definitely experiencing some transitions in various segments. However, after about a three-year, across-the-board bull run, some leveling off in activity and price resistance can be expected.
Posted 08/31/2005 2:08 pm
