Will NCLT Become Bullion Value Over Time

Other than the 20 for 20 and maybe the big coin set but I think the so call colour version will flop and drag down the original. In time everything the RCM cranks out will revert to near bullion, ascene taken 20 years ago by Canada Post basically destroying stamp collecting. Being offered about 35.00 for a recent 100.00 coin when the biggest salesperson is spewing every month on the HSN that every coins are sellout and increases in value.

Oversupply is the greatest enemy of modern NCLT. That coupled with rising precious metals prices over time will end up making NCLT end up at near bullion prices. Such as the 50% silver dollars from the 1970s-1980s.

I will usually buy any silver NCLT coin if I can get it for real close to its bullion value, even if it's something I don't have a real interest in (which there has been a few). However even looking back to when the RCM wasn't pumping out 300+ different NCLT coins a year, almost all of those have sold for bullion lately. The 1976 Olympic set with $5 and $10 coins as well as the 1988 Calgary Olympic sets for example. I started collecting the NCLT silver dollar issues in 2013 (the series that has been around since 71') and have not spent more than bullion on a single one thus far (I have every year from 1971-2003, plus 2008 and 2010). The newer ones are still selling for more than bullion but still significantly less than issue price and I will continue to wait until I am able to get those at bullion value as well. There is the odd exception with these coins (such as the queen mother silver dollar) but to think about the appreciated value from that one coin in comparison to the value lost if one had bought the rest of the entire series at issue still would show that it doesn't really make sense to buy these NCLT coins at issue. Now that being said I think for people who collect more for the enjoyment of having the coins, collecting only certain types or themes, and is not concerned with loss in value of their coins over time then it would make sense to buy at issue price instead of having to wait several years for that coin to be reduced to bullion value (and losing the excitement of owning a "new" coin).

John100 said


And for this fact alone, unless it's an extremely desirable coin to me, I am cutting down my annual coin budget directly from the mint, and reconsidering further purchases from online coin shops - Gatewest, Colonial Acres etc. As reputable dealers, I feel safe with my purchases from them, and as others mentioned, picking up past years items at discounts just makes a lot of sense.

With my savings, I'll consider purchasing the Annual 'Gift' from the mint, and/or the collector box(es).

While it is obvious that the trend lines are for NCLT prices to drop after release, the NCLT market has changed in the last few years with the flood of new releases. Personally I would guess that the prices will end up as bullion + a TBD premium. But the 'new' market hasn't been around long enough to say for sure. Currently even SMLs on ebay usually go for a premium over bullion. However, there's always the possibility that a surge in interest will sweep through the market at some point driving prices back up. Possibly the older, pre-flood NCLT would take better advantage of something like that but honestly, it's anyone's guess. I certainly wouldn't bet any significant amount of money on it.

Think of it like the stock market (my frequent analogy). Most IPOs' values drop out of the gate. Most don't go completely bankrupt though. Some eventually get back to their issue price and a few go higher. Personally I think IPOs have better odds than NCLT though :-)