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 Replies: 13,316 / Views: 1,070,409 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3276 Posts |
Yeah I figured it was probably for coin but it was unclear that it was per $100 box of nickels.
Does this mean that the very far right red dot... we have about a 2% chance of finding one of those in every box we search? Or am I reading the chart wrong? Because some dates like 1957 d, 1958 d, and 1959 d, my finds show that I get at least one per box. So wouldn't that be a 1.0 or more probability on your chart? but the chart only goes to .2 which is 20% right? There are plenty of dates I find more than 20% of the time when I search a box.
Forgive me if I am reading this wrong. lol.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
842 Posts |
Murrellington I think that the percentages in the chart correlate with the total amount of coins found. The coin with the highest mintage in the pre-60 series would be the 1943 P. This is the furthest dot to the right in the chart. The '43 P is right about at the .02 mark, so this means that 2% off all the nickels found dated before 1960 are the 1943 P type. The second highest mintage coin is 1941 (second to last dot to right). Follow it over to the side and it is about .095, so about 9.5% of all nickels dated before 1960 are from 1941. Make sense? So the axis labeled "Probability of Finding" is the same as the percentage found in circulating nickels dated before '60.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3276 Posts |
Ahhh okay. I was thinking it was using our data to show the probably of us finding a certain date if we buy 1 box. But I guess it is taking all of our info and showing the probably that a date was found, out of a total number found?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
A 0.02% chance of finding a 1943-P silver War Nickel (the dot on the far right that has a mintage of 271 Million) means that you find one for every 5,000 nickels you search. Murrellington, now the probability is per coin with respect to the total searched so far. But I might change it to show the probability per box. Edited by robbudo
06/15/2012 07:41 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
ancientcoinguy: everything you said is right except I show the probability of encountering a given coin with respect to the total # searched, not just the # of pre 1960 coins searched. I'll have to make that clearer in the title as well.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
622 Posts |
robbudo, I like it. Very readable. I'm not sure how your data is captured but I'd like to see the nickels expressed in 3 segments: 1938-1942, 1942-1945, and 1946-1949. That way we could compare the War Nickels to those immediately before and after. Can you do that? OO |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3276 Posts |
Quote:A 0.02% chance of finding a 1943-P silver War Nickel (the dot on the far right that has a mintage of 271 Million) means that you find one for every 5,000 nickels you search. There are 2,000 nickels in a box. So our results show that we find a 1943 p nickel every 2 1/2 boxes? I just now checked my results and I find one for every 12,000 nickels searched. But maybe they find a greater amount on the east coast to make the average more common. Sorry, I'm kind of thinking out loud here. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
murrellington, the graph just represents data on one person's 33 boxes. I'm just getting the formatting/formulas down. #'s will change when I add the rest of the data, which I'm formatting now. fun summer project. But I do hope to find some interesting geographical differences. For instance, fewer V-nickels on the west coast.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3345 Posts |
Box #68 down!  two silvers-both 1943P thats 46/68 1 buff- 1927 nice clear date no proofs no V's Dates: 1952-S 1938 1955 1940 BU Looks like my nickel searching luck is going up!! Good luck dudes!  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
Box 96, hole filler! 1943D
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3276 Posts |
awesome robbudo! I only have one of those. That really is a tough one. How many holes do you have left and what are they?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3345 Posts |
Wow robuddo your almost to box 100! and nice find!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3345 Posts |
Box #69 down! silver-3 thats 47/68!  1944-P (2) 1942-S No buffs no V's Proof-1960-hard to tell but definetly a proof super toned WWJ nickel-found a few like it in the previous boxes. Must have come from the same roll Dates: 1955 1949-D 1941-S 1940-S This is from the last two boxes, the buff is a 1927.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts |
Box 97: new country --> Panama.
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Replies: 13,316 / Views: 1,070,409 |
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Posted 06/15/2012 01:45 am
