RCM / Royal Canadian Mint NCLT - And Falling Demand/Prices

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Author	Replies: 13 / Views: 1,772
JGG Pillar of the Community Canada 798 Posts	Posted 01/10/2016 09:16 am I used to do a lot of interviews discussing precious metals and financial derivatives. In 2011, those videos would get 20k views on YouTube ... now, maybe 400-600 views. Report this Post to the Staff

john100 Pillar of the Community Canada 5324 Posts	Posted 01/10/2016 11:13 am The Perth Mint lost most of it's prestige when it restriked the first kangaroo, the Pojoy mint cranks out 200 mintage on some unheard of commonwealth islands and rarely sells out, once the majority of collectors looses faith in a collectable the item is doomed, back to this series it's a cool coin celebrating a nice theme but it get's lost in the coin a day releases and now with one dealer having such vast amounts, it's probably commissioned. The average collector starts to get gun shy and gernerally leaves this hobby for something else. Report this Post to the Staff
pocket change 50 Pillar of the Community Canada 1751 Posts	Posted 01/10/2016 3:34 pm @Yup, I think you hit on the biggest factor, the dropping silver price. Back in 2012 when silver was still high everyone was happy. Now with dropping silver, I do go why should I pay 5-7 times spot prices. What made it worse, the mint coming out with a 1 oz medallion for $50. While paying a royalty to Nascar, they are still making a profit. So why has nclt have to be priced so high. Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/12/2016 8:16 pm @pocketchange50 From the data I have compiled, plotting it along dropping silver and gold prices, when you compare secondary sales of coins with the drop in silver and gold, they are almost pacing each other, and its not just not something that only impact RCM coins. All NCLT, unless they were true hot, high demand coins, were smashed by the current downtrend in gold and silver. I recently, after patiently waiting for 2 years, bought a NCLT coin from a german private mint and have watch prices drop 50%+ as silver dropped hard. To me, after seeing that drop after such a long time, I feel I can now dip my toes and buy. I wont be the one paying full price tho. Report this Post to the Staff
canadian_coins Pillar of the Community United States 2408 Posts	Posted 01/16/2016 10:08 pm Quote: Those who remain are more cautious or moved to another branch of the hobby. Very good observation. My own direction changed in 2012-13 when I decided to stop buying, and sell everything. That included CLT's as well. Quote: Then slowly the market started to change with frequent releases. This trend started in 2000. It's only getting worse every year. BUT - as Danielle Wetherup, President of the RCM once told me, the RCM produces what people want. Quote: No longer could a guess be made as to what is hot. That would take the fun of collecting, wouldn't it? I suggest to consider your gut feel to guide you towards what's hot... for you only. Quote: This drop in resale prices coincides with low silver spot price compared to $35 an oz, when I started. Bingo. Quote: The problem is the mint keeps inching prices upwards as spot continues on the decline. Double Bingo. Quote: If silver spot didn't matter, we would be happy buying copper nclt. There needs to be a sensible correlation to spot prices. Triple Bingo. Quote: The latest high relief is $149.95 for 1 oz. While silver is $19 an oz, or about 7 times spot. No wonder collectors shake their head. Exactly my comment in an other thread. However... IMO this isn't affecting the RCM bottom line. There are still plenty of buyers (collectors?) willing to click on the buy button. Quote: Now how many collectors proudly show off a coin, while gushing I lost $40 on it. It does not make for a happy collector. I've done that on occasions. But you are correct... not something I'm necessarily happy about. However, as a collector there is always the benefit of "showing off" a coin for its history, design, characteristics, etc. Quote: I have fine art pieces that haven't appreciated much in 20 years, however they haven't declined either. People that pay for collectables, usually collect items of value. Collecting probably serve many psychological functions. One which is a sense of security. Well... most of what you have (collectibles or not) declines in value, steadily, every day. Only the NEW stuff is worth what you pay for. Then once you've paid for it, whatever you got starts to depreciate. This is a normal and a healthy process. It would be too long to expand on this topic here, but let's just say that whatever you hold on to for the long haul the returns will be marginally equivalent to inflation. Again, this is normal. Quote: Those that collect items of little or no value, are now called hoarders. Which has been recognized as an illness. I also needed counseling to control my NCLT addiction. I joke about this, but for me this was a real problem. I could NOT resist the urge to buy the darn coins... to the point that we had no room to store them. 30 years ago I quit smoking. This was a very good decision for me, my family, my health and my wallet. Quitting my NCLT addiction was equally beneficial. Quote: My kid hoard video games and lego. We have loads of old video games and systems. Downloadable games are getting pricy like coins. Now I just don't get spending $70 on a down load game, with no resale value, or buying in game add ons. Same here. But how to you quantify or monetize "FUN"? My kids see no "fun" in a $1 coin. There is little grounds for comparison because "fun" is personal. It's your own experience. Quote: At least I can hold my coin, or sell it when broke. That is SO true! That was my argument when I started around 1972. My parents supported my hobby fully and were giving me extraordinary presents. I got the 1977 $100 gold ($140) coin and the $1978 gold coin ($180) as birthday presents. Then they could not afford the 1979 and 1980 because gold prices went crazy. My parents appreciated what I was doing and I will always be grateful for that. They thought that my coins could help me during hard times. Quote: Everyone has contributed great perspectives and it has been a most enjoyable read. Likewise, I appreciate your valuable comments on this forum! Report this Post to the Staff
pocket change 50 Pillar of the Community Canada 1751 Posts	Posted 01/16/2016 11:22 pm @ C_C wow you really did start collecting young. So your a great historian on RCM coins, as to when they started pumping out coins and how prices have increased. How does todays prices compare to prices in the past. I read you said the 1972 double dollar set was $100, is it true. What were the double dollar sets sold for. If I read you correctly, its since 2000 that releases have expanded. I know I laughed at 2011 posts complaining about amount of releases. I too struggled getting my purchases under control the past 2 yrs. Being in hospital for 4 months, due to complications with a hip replacement, coupled with Yups insights have helped me fight the temptation!! I don't have other habits that I spend money on, it makes it too easy to rationalize another purchase. Storage has become an issue too. I have learned so much from all the posters here. I get what you say about inflation eroding any gains over time. Its something not talked about and may mislead new collectors. I have a thrust for knowledge and I'm always interested in the history behind my interests. Its why Striking Impressions was a great read. I was there was another book starting were this one left off. I enjoy reading your informative and historical posts. Back in the 80s until 2000 collectors weren't faced with having to control their compulsion. At one point so many coins were arriving, most got left unopened. I found a mint box in November with a 2014 coin I hadn't opened. I had cancelled the sub and the mint still sent the coin. At least in 2015 I had 8 or 9 purchases. Hopefully I can keep to 10 or 12 this year. My kid sure does get my moneys worth from his download games. I'm having to drop $800 in upgrades to his gaming computer. However a major chunk was covered by birthday & Christmas gifts. Its just something I cant relate to. I think another factor is the vast drop in the Canadian dollar and a slow economy. There's not much faith in anything. So the wise person is very cautious. This has to spill over into hobby pursuits. Of course everything has its heyday. I remember when a champion Arabian horse went for $100 grand, now 5-6k is a great price. In 1991 I paid $5k for a stud fee to a champion, today prices are 1k or less. Report this Post to the Staff
Dcadon Rest in Peace Canada 1360 Posts	Posted 01/17/2016 11:19 am just a brief correction about your first paragraph Pocketchange50 - he had got the 1972 set, then his parents purchased the '77 $100 gold coin for $140 and '78 for $180. No mention of 1972 @ $100 - If my memory serves, the 'proof sets' back then were about $30 or $35, which in comparison to inflation etc... would be about $130 today. Keeping in mind that they weren't pure silver but only 50%, that was really expensive. Report this Post to the Staff
canadian_coins Pillar of the Community United States 2408 Posts	Posted 01/17/2016 6:25 pm Quote: just a brief correction about your first paragraph Pocketchange50 - he had got the 1972 set, then his parents purchased the '77 $100 gold coin for $140 and '78 for $180. No mention of 1972 @ $100 - If my memory serves, the 'proof sets' back then were about $30 or $35, which in comparison to inflation etc... would be about $130 today. Keeping in mind that they weren't pure silver but only 50%, that was really expensive No I never got the 1971 - 1972 sets until much later... can't remember, once the price made more sense. Like I said, those two sets were selling for close to $100 each at some point in time. I did not keep any of my old Charlton... Also, these sets do not have silver at all. Both dollars are nickel. So, yes these were extremely expensive. Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/17/2016 7:17 pm I think the worsening Canadian economy, along with all other economies, is going to further hurt coin collecting. I suspect in time we will see all NCLT that were prized gems and holding their price, tumble hard as collectors head for the exit. Reminds me of vintage star wars collecting and its cycles, there were times when lots of rare stuff dropped in price, got dumped,,, and years later,, those are now major bargains compared to the prices now. The POSITIVE I see right now is this is a GREAT time period to be a brand new collector in all sorts of NCLT coins because there are deals and will be more deals down the road. Report this Post to the Staff
canadian_coins Pillar of the Community United States 2408 Posts	Posted 01/18/2016 6:56 pm ^^ what will hurt coin collecting more than the world economies? The fact that coins / money (cash) is on its way out. I'm not suggesting that this will happen in the near future. But if technology continue on the same path then eventually we will not need (nor desire) any form of raw, undocumented cash. I'm not saying it's a good thing. But we are moving in that direction. Fast. I will not live long enough to see this, but one day all these "old" coins will be remanufactured to fool anyone but the surviving experts working for PCGS. Report this Post to the Staff
Fixguy Pillar of the Community Canada 532 Posts	Posted 01/18/2016 7:07 pm If the world economies tank I'll be glad to have some precious metals. The people of the future will carry acid test kits and won't take kindly to people trying to fool them. It's not like it hasn't happened before. Just not so much here. Mint coins will be extra rare since most will cash everything to survive. The future I fear will be stranger than fiction. Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/18/2016 7:19 pm I dont know if world economies are going to tank. I think people are afraid of a repeat of 08-09 and so they are jumping on the bandwagon quickly that its going to be super bad again. I highly doubt that because those sort of events happen every so often. More than likely things are just slowing down again. But hey, I dont care and I dont worry about it and whatever is going on, I am probably wrong anyways. I will say tho, if this really is deflation, which again, I have no clue, that is impacting commodities, or whatever it is, it will make collecting fun seeing if gold really got to 300 an ounce.. or silver back at 6 an ounces (prices in USD) Report this Post to the Staff
canadian_coins Pillar of the Community United States 2408 Posts	Posted 01/18/2016 7:21 pm ^^ if you think of precious metal then maybe Palladium is the ticket for you? It is rarer than gold and costs less. many other rare hearth elements are used to make our iPhones and iPads. Silver has a very small play. Report this Post to the Staff
Libertad Pillar of the Community Canada 3692 Posts	Posted 01/19/2016 7:19 pm Cobalt and coltan: conflict minerals from the DR of Congo. I once met a guy who wanted me to take a picture of him with his eye-fone. He was new to the country obviously, so we talked and he was from Congo, and I learned from him about coltan, fuelling the civil wars there, and he was not phased one bit that he was funding his people's own destruction. Sad. I feel the noble metals pinch, being in an industry that works the metals. People had all the confidence in the world as it was rising because the economy was crap. Now that the metals' dollar price has dropped and the local dollar has fallen at the same time people are in disarray and don't buy noble metals like they used to, and I don't refer to the bull/boom from a few years ago, but in general. People don't "gift" jewelry in the same way as in roughly 1994-2001, and instead they opt to purchase electronics on a regular basis, and infinite upgrades, and are basically obsolete machines in 3 years time to keep up with file sizes, bandwidth, new programs, new operating systems, etc. In contrast, a piece of jewelry can hold its value over thousands of years and gets put into museums. I hope this serves as a useful analogy to the discussion as it's just one facet out of many in the noble metals game (investing, jewelry, coins, dental, electronics, etc). The one thing I can advise is: pretend money doesn't exist. Would you still want the metal? Would you still want the coin? (Those are two separate rhetorical questions, not a rephrasing.) Profit should not be a motive to want an object made from noble metals. One a side note: if the RCM wants to be taken seriously they should press whoever decides (Bank of Canada?) that their NCLT be allowed for everyday use. That would boost their credibility and the integrity of their product. But of course one has to see NCLT as a product, and not as money, otherwise they would never be made in the first place. It's a bit of a catch-22. Edited by Libertad 01/19/2016 7:22 pm Report this Post to the Staff
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RCM NCLT - And Falling Demand/Prices